8 man PPR league, 3rd pick

[rasmusDoh]

Hey all

I'm in a 8 man PPR (1 pt/rec) league and have the 3rd pick.
QB TDs are 4 pts.

Trying to make a general plan and starting with first four rounds.

As for 1.3 i gotta go Foster/Rice/McCoy, right!?
2.14 i'm thinking either one of the top RBs left, or maybe Jimmy Graham? Would that be a reach at this point? What about Gronk?

For 3.19 i'm considering Stafford/Newton (in that order), if they're still there. How does that sound? And what do i do if they're gone? WR?

4.30 i'm thinking WR for sure, while there's still some good ones left.


Critique and suggestions much appreciated

[LMack]

Starting with McCoy, Graham, Stafford/Newton and a WR would put you in a solid position.

I don't necessarily think you have to go with a QB and a TE early in a league of this size, but in the rounds you are talking about its not an overpay.

[rasmusDoh]

Do you think Gronk instead of Graham at that pick would be an overpay?
As a Pats fan i'd rather have Gronk if they were projected almost equally.

Seems like Graham is projected to have a significantly better fantasy season though. Do you agree?

[rasmusDoh]

Have done some mock drafts (i'm the 3rd pick in all):

http://db.tt/hlUhsGdm
http://db.tt/EgYXmVn8
http://db.tt/1Tp9scuh

The 8-man ones had few humans involved, so tried a 10-man too. 

Ofc the almost all human 10-man would be more realistic, but since most in my league are rookies, i could see at least some of them sticking to the rankings like the computer. 

Anyway, things that stick out:

Drew Brees: Say he actually falls to me in the 2nd round. Wouldnt it be stupid to not grab him at the 13th pick?

Mathews: Given his injury, is he a reach at 13?

Richardson vs Welker: In the 10-man, would you have taken Welker (PPR league) over Richardson, especially when i already had two RBs? Feel like that was a mistake. 

Torrey Smith and Miles Austin: Do you feel like one/both of these could be decent/good WR2s?
What is Austin's situation with Bryant and all that?

Big Ben: Why is he ranked super low this year? Don't like him much, but still don't get it


Oh, and for the record i didn't draft 
Hillman and Seattle DEF in the 10-man. Was just too slow, and the autopick fucked me. 

How do you feel about not drafting a DEF or kicker anyway?

WHIR

[TruNinerFan]

with the 3rd pick, you have to go with Foster, Rice or Mccoy. In the 2nd round hopefully a back like Forte gets back to you and then you can go WR heavy the next 2 rounds

[rasmusDoh]

Tried another mock with your advice:
http://db.tt/SgENzSRb

Forte didn't fall, but got Charles.
Once again Brees felt far. So even though my main strategy is RB-RB first two rounds, would you take Brees if he'd seriously fallen to my second pick? So instead of Charles

And if he doesn't fall, which seems more realistic, would you skip Stafford and Newton and go WR - and then pick up a guy like Romo as starting QB?
What about TE? I'd like to get Hernandez in 4th or hopefully 5th, but if that doesn't work out i'm thinking waiting quite a bit and get Fred David / Pettigrew.
Meant to do that in the above mock too, but was again too slow and autopick got me Witten.

[rasmusDoh]

Anyone?

WHIR!

[BurritoBoy]

I seriously doubt Brees falls, but if he does fall to you at 14, I would definitely take him. Then when it hits rd3 take best RB available, and Charles, or if you want Mathews take him there at 18/19. I think it is a bit of a reach for him at 13.

I think both Gronk and Graham are just about even value. Graham had more overall catches, the yards were basically a wash. Only place Gronk beat him was TDs, but everyone expects those to drop with the addition of Lloyd, and especially if the Pats sign Plaxico (I wouldn't be shocked if they did). I still think Gronk gets between 10-12 TDs this year. It's all just a personal preference, but those factors combined with NO let Meachem walk leads me to believe Graham will still dominate Brees attention.

As for the draft in general, I'd want to walk away from the first 3 rounds with at least 2 RBs. If that means go RB/RB/WR then I'm fine with that, and I just wait to draft a Romo/Manning/Ryan later at like the 6/7 flip. Because it's an 8 man league, there are less guys trying to get more servicable starting QBs then there are teams. I'm more of a risk taker, and I would roll the dice. But the QB advice is just null and void if Brees is at 14, I would definitely draft him there. If you go RB/RB and there aren't any WRs you like at 19, but Stafford is there, I would take him.

[rasmusDoh]

Thanks man!

At least two RBs in first three picks sounds good to me.

Did you mean that both Charles and mathews are reaches at 14, or only mathews?

Also, would you also take Newton at 19 if Stafford is gone?

As for Graham and Gronk i've come to the conclusion that i probably won't be getting either.
If either is there at 19 i think i gotta take him, but think i gotta go with RB at 14 unless something like Brees happens.
What do you think?

[BurritoBoy]

Did you mean that both Charles and mathews are reaches at 14, or only mathews?

Mathews is a reach at 14. But if you don't go RB at 14 and he is there at 19, I would be fine with taking him. Just remember to draft an extra RB later because Mathews will miss a few games, and all indications are RBBC until he returns. If he comes back healthy and is a top 5 guy when he's back, I'm willing to wait a couple weeks for some big time numbers. I don't think Charles is too big of a reach at 14, if there aren't other guys there that you like but he is I don't see why not draft him.

Also, would you also take Newton at 19 if Stafford is gone?

I'd be willing to bet there will be some really good WRs at 19 if you go RB/RB to start. If Stafford goes before 19, I wouldn't take Newton, I'd take one of those WRs. The thing that really put Newton over the top last year was all of his rushing TDs, but I don't think he does that again. Panthers brought in world-renowned TD Vulture Mike Tolbert this year, I think to use him in the red zone to save some pounding on Newton's body. Yes he is still a scrambling threat and can break off a long one, but I think that the gap between he and the rest of the pack will be slimmer than most think. But I don't think that Stafford may last that long, if you want him you might need to take him at 14, I don't think that is a reach