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jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby sabomnim » Fri Aug 10, 2012 9:46 pm

I know it's an odd selection but I'm really debating it
I'm 9 of 10 in a ppr, 6 pts TD league
I'm planning on going qb first
Both forte and graham should be there when I pick and here is how I see it
Forte to me will be the best rb available
I'm considering graham (or gronk?) Bc the difference between the top rated te and middle of the pack is much greater than for rb

In other words, graham will get significantly more points than a Vernon Davis or gates were as forte won't be much different than a sproles, s jax, or even Reggie bush (if he repeats)

So I'm thinking value based drafting here

Anyone have suggestions when approaching a draft with value based drafting?
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby yetiboy » Fri Aug 10, 2012 11:39 pm

I understand your logic, but picking QB/TE as your first two picks is a dangerous game - although having only 10 in your league definitely helps. I don't think you're going to have a chance for Sproles or SJax in the 3rd though - 29th pick is a little low for those guys in a PPR league. You're likely looking at Fred Jackson (questionable with injury and Spiller breathing down his neck), Bush (who I don't think is going to be anywhere near Forte's numbers), Doug Martin (who I think is going to be a stud), Bradshaw (injury, Wilson nipping at his heels), Turner (going to be an airshow in Atlanta this year, huge drop in touches for Turner), or Gore. Iffy picking.

Incidentally, who do you think will be around as a QB at 9 for you? Depending on the dynamic of your group, it's possible to not see Rodgers, Brees or Brady still there. At least one of them easily could, but there's always the possibility that it goes McCoy/Rice/Foster, Rodgers, Calvin, Brees, Brady, CJ2k or McFadden in front of you. If it does, I'd be taking Johnson or McFadden and then maybe Stafford on the way back if you really want a QB and want to reach (won't be around for your 3rd pick and then you're into Tier 2/3).

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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby Quackman » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:32 am

sabomnim wrote:I know it's an odd selection but I'm really debating it
I'm 9 of 10 in a ppr, 6 pts TD league
I'm planning on going qb first
Both forte and graham should be there when I pick and here is how I see it
Forte to me will be the best rb available
I'm considering graham (or gronk?) Bc the difference between the top rated te and middle of the pack is much greater than for rb

In other words, graham will get significantly more points than a Vernon Davis or gates were as forte won't be much different than a sproles, s jax, or even Reggie bush (if he repeats)

So I'm thinking value based drafting here

Anyone have suggestions when approaching a draft with value based drafting?


Id never ever pass on forte in a ppr for graham or any TE. Forte is still the center of that offense. TE's are the center of nothing. Its pretty shocking how early people draft gronk and Graham, i mean they are TE's, i have almost no confidence their numbers will be close year to year. Id save the pick and grab someone like Fred Davis 6 rounds later.
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby sabomnim » Sat Aug 11, 2012 4:00 am

@yeti
Well I'm fairly confident Brady will and possibly Brees will be there by my pick
My friend love rbs and wrs but qbs rbs to drop anyone (Brees went in the 4th least great and I got Eli in the 10th)
I'm not high on Stafford bc I am not confident he can be healthy another full year

@quack
It's not how many points a player gets, it's how much more they score in their position
The top 3 TEs will out score the test by about at least 100 pts
The rbs at my position will not site much more than the rbs I can get later
Plus they have high risk of injury
Forte, McFadden, cj will score about the same as sproles, sjax or bush
Even if they score more it's likely not to be close to 100 more points
Plus there is a good chance there will be an injury increasing the risk of investing early in a rb and increasing the chances of getting a solid backup
TEs don't get hurt as often
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby dblj9911 » Sat Aug 11, 2012 7:49 am

I'm. Taking Forte all day long. Who would be your next best option at RB in the 3rd/4th Rd? Forte will have pressure removed from him with Marshall and that will open up there offense, making things easier for him.

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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby yetiboy » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:16 am

@sabomnim: If your friends love RBs so much and you're not worried about QBs going (I think I read your sentence right, things got a bit wonky in the middle there), then why the rush to get one in the 1st round?

As far as your reply to quack, again your logic is right to a certain extent, but the problem is that predicting production isn't a science. You argue that the top 3 TEs (I'm assuming you meant 2) will outscore the rest by at least 100 pts, but I'd be willing to bet Gronk doesn't even come close to those numbers (come on, you KNOW there's going to be a regression from 17 TDs and if you look at the previous year Hernandez was the stud of the pair - who's to say it won't be him again this year if either at all now that they have Lloyd?) and Graham has already been injured in the preseason - how is he not just as much of an injury risk as any of the RBs? And there's absolutely no way Sproles, SJax and Bush score the same as Forte, McFadden and CJ - and I say this as a Sproles keeper, I'm not expecting the same season as last year nor should anyone. Forte, McFadden and CJ are proven studs when healthy (and in CJ's case not out of shape because of contract issues) - there's not a chance I'd be passing on any of them for a TE. Gronk and Graham's seasons last year have skewed the opinion of the TE position - not that I mind, other people can draft them high all day and I'll be just fine picking up a middle tier TE in the 6th who's just as likely to catch 80-1000 as Graham or Gronk.

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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby JackedSierra » Sat Aug 11, 2012 8:38 am

I don't think ur crazy for takin 1 of the 2 elite te's at that pick. Those 2 are in a league of their own and will outperform most wr's. But if u have the choice I'd take gronk over graham, but im
also a pats fan
1 point ppr
stafford, henne
best, deangelo, mccoy, benson, starks
fitzgerald, d-jax, jordy nelson, harvin, hester
gates, gonzalez
rackers
baltimore
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby Quackman » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:48 am

sabomnim wrote:@yeti
Well I'm fairly confident Brady will and possibly Brees will be there by my pick
My friend love rbs and wrs but qbs rbs to drop anyone (Brees went in the 4th least great and I got Eli in the 10th)
I'm not high on Stafford bc I am not confident he can be healthy another full year

@quack
It's not how many points a player gets, it's how much more they score in their position
The top 3 TEs will out score the test by about at least 100 pts
The rbs at my position will not site much more than the rbs I can get later
Plus they have high risk of injury
Forte, McFadden, cj will score about the same as sproles, sjax or bush
Even if they score more it's likely not to be close to 100 more points
Plus there is a good chance there will be an injury increasing the risk of investing early in a rb and increasing the chances of getting a solid backup
TEs don't get hurt as often


you are making way to many assumptions here based on the numbers of last season. Mcffadden forte and cj will score about as much as bush...sjax? You gotta be kidding me. Ill give ya sproles in a ppr,,after that you are just dreaming. sjax isnt an injury risk? He could keel over any second in my mind. Assuming graham/gronk will be that far ahead of all other TE's is another assumption that is soo oh hum. There are plenty of TE's that could have breakout years and could close this huge gap than you think exists. Hell even guys like jared cook,,,250pd monster who can run a 4.50 40 could have a huge breakout season. There wouldnt be much of a gap either if Fred Davis had played all 16 games last year/
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby sabomnim » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:57 pm

not saying graham or gronk will repeat but i still think they will be significantly better the rest of the TEs
yes i think forte will be better than sjax and sproles but i dont think by the same margin
i most likely wont have a shot at mcfadden or CJ so its more of forte, murray (who i dont like), or someone else in that crowd (even MJD, mathews, \charles or trich will fall)

my only shot at a top QB will be 1st/2nd round and i think im going to take it
if i want forte then id take him first then brady 2nd.
if i want anyone else id prolly go brady first

i dont think graham who has only missed 1 game in past 2 years is much of an injury risk and i dont think his latest injury is anyhting
plus brees LOVES TEs

if you spread fortes season over 16 games he gets around 260 pts (by our scoring) which is the same as sproles last year
so even with a dip i only see mabye 50 point difference between the two where as graham vs anyone besides gronk i see being closer to 80 pt difference

my friends also shy injuries so i can see mathews, t-rich falling to me in the 3rd/4th
also they dont like lynch and i could easily see me getting him in the 3/4

i may miss out on top WRs but if i go brady, graham, RB (lynch, sproles, mathews or trich), and a WR i think ill be in good shape
then stock up on RBs and WRs (i only carry 1 qb and 1 TE, and draft Def and K last two rounds)

idk ive been reading up on VBD and maybe im just getting too caught up in it and forcing me to want to reach but i really think it may be a great strat
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Re: jimmy graham or forte? & VBD

Postby sabomnim » Mon Aug 13, 2012 6:38 am

Also
If forte and McFadden are gone,
should I then go graham or get a wr like roddy white or welker
Or still go rb like Charles, Peterson, Matthews, or Richardson
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