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Safest RB after top 3?

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Safest RB after top 3?

Postby bearsfan012512 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:07 pm

Who in the next tier of running backs do you think is the safest top pick in a PPR league?

I have the 1st pick in a keeper league and these are the best RB's left. Who is the most reliable?

Chris Johnson
Matt Forte
Demarco Murray
Marshawn Lynch
MJD
Darren McFadden
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby angels7777 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:17 pm

MJD if he signs...

viewtopic.php?t=515271
10 tms
.5 PPR, 6 pts for pass TD

QB- Cam
WR- AJ Green, J. Nelson, J. Gordon
RB- Sproles, Forte
TE- Graham
FLX- Fitz
Def- Matchup Based
K- D. Bailey

BN- Chris Johnson, Blackmon, M. Brown, L. Bell, Randle, Rivers, Spiller
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby BurritoBoy » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:19 pm

If MJD wasn't holding out I'd roll with him for another year. But because he is, I would vote Chris Johnson. After his holdout struggles left, he began to play like the guy we knew for the previous 2 years. I like him to continue on that tear. DMC and Murray have serious health risks, so I wouldn't call them "safest", though they have the most upside.
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby dagnuk » Mon Aug 13, 2012 9:58 pm

Safest?
1: Chris Johnson doesn't have anybody on his roster who can steal that job, so pair that with talent, and he's at the top.
2: Matt Forte- Michael Bush is in town to do things that Forte has never been expected to do as a Bear. The same roles that went to other running backs before him (Chester Taylor and Marion Barber) are going to Bush, but Forte is still the top back in Chicago.
3: MJD would be at the top, but it sounds like he is in no hurry to report to camp, and in his absence, the Jags are professing their love of Rashad Jennings' involvement in the offense.
4: McFadden is possibly the most talented rb on this list...
5: Demarco Murray- extremely talented, but he has the injury question marks surrounding him, too.
6: Marshawn Lynch would be at or near the top for this season in a redraft league. In a keeper league, you know he's getting a lengthy suspension, sometime in the next calendar year. We just don't know when the hammer drops.
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby bearsfan012512 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:23 pm

dagnuk wrote:Safest?
1: Chris Johnson doesn't have anybody on his roster who can steal that job, so pair that with talent, and he's at the top.
2: Matt Forte- Michael Bush is in town to do things that Forte has never been expected to do as a Bear. The same roles that went to other running backs before him (Chester Taylor and Marion Barber) are going to Bush, but Forte is still the top back in Chicago.
3: MJD would be at the top, but it sounds like he is in no hurry to report to camp, and in his absence, the Jags are professing their love of Rashad Jennings' involvement in the offense.
4: McFadden is possibly the most talented rb on this list...
5: Demarco Murray- extremely talented, but he has the injury question marks surrounding him, too.
6: Marshawn Lynch would be at or near the top for this season in a redraft league. In a keeper league, you know he's getting a lengthy suspension, sometime in the next calendar year. We just don't know when the hammer drops.


So if you were on the clock you would go CJ2K? You think he can bounce back?
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby dagnuk » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:31 pm

Johnson and Forte are coming off of very similar statistical seasons, but Forte missed 4 games. Michael Bush WILL take touches and yards from Forte. Michael Bush can catch, too. I'd still take Forte in the 1st round, but I'd pick Johnson before him because he has the backfield to himself.

If you could guarantee me that McFadden would play in 14 games this season, I would blindly pick him in the first round of every one of my drafts. He's never played in 14 games in a season: 13/12/13/7 games played in his first 4 seasons. I love him, but I would be hard-pressed to take him before Chris Johnson and Forte.
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby bearsfan012512 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:43 pm

dagnuk wrote:Johnson and Forte are coming off of very similar statistical seasons, but Forte missed 4 games. Michael Bush WILL take touches and yards from Forte. Michael Bush can catch, too. I'd still take Forte in the 1st round, but I'd pick Johnson before him because he has the backfield to himself.

If you could guarantee me that McFadden would play in 14 games this season, I would blindly pick him in the first round of every one of my drafts. He's never played in 14 games in a season: 13/12/13/7 games played in his first 4 seasons. I love him, but I would be hard-pressed to take him before Chris Johnson and Forte.


Does the fact that Chicago now has a solid WR in Brandon Marshall at all scare you away from Forte?
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby dagnuk » Mon Aug 13, 2012 10:57 pm

bearsfan012512 wrote:Does the fact that Chicago now has a solid WR in Brandon Marshall at all scare you away from Forte?


No. Marshall's presence doesn't scare me. Having one more weapon on that offense will only help Forte. With Brandon Marshall, what you get is somebody defenses have to account for, occasionally with double coverage. Forte is no longer the best receiver on his own offense. He is now the 2nd best receiver. Defenses will focus on covering Marshall, and this should open things up for Forte. You aren't adding 3 Brandon Marshalls to the Bears' offense. 1 opens things up for Forte. Forte will continue get his touches. However, Michael Bush may see fewer goal line touchdowns because of Brandon Marshall, but since Forte has never been a goal line guy, this doesn't affect him much.
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby bearsfan012512 » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:05 pm

dagnuk wrote:
bearsfan012512 wrote:Does the fact that Chicago now has a solid WR in Brandon Marshall at all scare you away from Forte?


No. Marshall's presence doesn't scare me. Having one more weapon on that offense will only help Forte. With Brandon Marshall, what you get is somebody defenses have to account for, occasionally with double coverage. Forte is no longer the best receiver on his own offense. He is now the 2nd best receiver. Defenses will focus on covering Marshall, and this should open things up for Forte. You aren't adding 3 Brandon Marshalls to the Bears' offense. 1 opens things up for Forte. Forte will continue get his touches. However, Michael Bush may see fewer goal line touchdowns because of Brandon Marshall, but since Forte has never been a goal line guy, this doesn't affect him much.


Wow you have really good answers. So if (as a bears fan) i drafted Forte over CJ2K, it wouldn't be really stupid right? From what you are saying it seems like either one could work. (just as side info the reason i want a safer pick is because i already have all my risky-picking locked up in Vick as my keeper)
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Re: Safest RB after top 3?

Postby dagnuk » Mon Aug 13, 2012 11:14 pm

No, you won't get laughed out of the draft room for taking Forte before Chris Johnson. However, I'd still take Johnson over Forte. Michael Bush will impact Forte's numbers more than Javon Ringer will impact Johnson's.

They have the same floor, but Johnson's ceiling is higher than Forte's. If I had to pick between the two, I'd say that Johnson is more likely to be have a 2,000 yard total type of season. I don't expect him to, but the potential is there.
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