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Pre-draft trade

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Pre-draft trade

Postby jskudera » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:17 am

Currently in a 12-team money league. Will be drafting #10. In most of my drafts, these 9 players are picked before me:

Foster, McCoy, Rice, Brees, Rodgers, Brady - definitely gone
Calvin, CJ - probably gone
Stafford, MJD - sometimes gone

Usually, I've been left with Stafford, Andre, Fitz, Gronk... and then for RBs Forte, Demarco, DMC, AP, etc.

Position #11 is trying to trade out of the first round. This is what he offered me:

I Get: #11 pick (1st), #59 pick (5th) & #83 pick (7th)
I Give: #15 pick (2nd), #39 pick (4th) & #63 pick (6th)

Is this trade worth it for me? I could guarantee a backfield of a combination of the following players: Forte, DMC, CJ, MJD

If #11 keeps his pick, he is taking either Forte or DMC, whichever is available. If that is the case, #12 & #13 will likely take the remaining RBs out of that group before it gets back to me. Then I'd have to settle with the likes of Demarco Murray, AP, WRs, Gronk, etc.

With my 3rd pick, I would target Trent Richardson to hopefully end up with Forte-DMC-Richardson. In the 5th round, shoot for Romo/Rivers, or possibly wait a little longer for Schaub/Big Ben. Grab a couple WR with 5th & 7th (Bowe, Maclin, Floyd, Meachem, DeSean, Vjax, etc).

Or... should I just stay put?


Thanks
Last edited by jskudera on Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:38 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby LMack » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:33 am

You're paying a little bit too much of a premium to move up.

I use this pick value calculator as a rule of thumb when it comes to draft pick trading http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby murphysxm » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:36 am

LMack wrote:You're paying a little bit too much of a premium to move up.

I use this pick value calculator as a rule of thumb when it comes to draft pick trading http://www.footballguys.com/pickvalue.htm


agreed, and take DMC at 10 if he is available
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby jskudera » Thu Aug 16, 2012 7:43 am

Thanks guys - although the trade machine says it's not of equal value to me - it doesn't take into consideration other points. Such as being able to secure the 2 headed RB combo.

DMC should be available at 10.

Projected draft

1 Foster
2 Rice
3 McCoy
4 Rodgers
5 Brady
6 Brees
7 Calvin
8 CJ
9 Fitz
10 DMC
11 Forte
12 MJD/Andre/Gronk
13 MJD/Andre/Gronk
14 MJD/Andre/Gronk
15

With my 15th pick, who would I use it on? Is DeMarco worth that pick? Do I take Stafford? What about Greg Jennings? Roddy White (I prefer Julio Jones)? Do I risk going for AP? At least with the 10-11 pick, I know I'd get my 2 RBs. 10-15 is very uncertain, though.
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby murphysxm » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:21 am

jskudera wrote:With my 15th pick, who would I use it on? Is DeMarco worth that pick? Do I take Stafford? What about Greg Jennings? Roddy White (I prefer Julio Jones)? Do I risk going for AP? At least with the 10-11 pick, I know I'd get my 2 RBs. 10-15 is very uncertain, though.


You will be able to get a 2nd RB in the Jamaal Charles Demarco Murray range at 15 without doing the trade. I don't think that is a big enough drop off to warrant the trade and losing value later. It's your team though, go with your gut, we are just saying on paper, not a good trade
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby FantasySportsMaven » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:24 am

Agreed. Don't do the deal and absolutely take run DMC if he is still around at your pick.

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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby angry bird 23 » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:29 am

Id go with the best rb back at 15 unless some slips from the first round and im not sure about ap iunless u have a solid rb on ur bench to fill in... Im gonna avoid him this year unless he falls in my lap late
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby BurritoBoy » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:52 am

I wouldn't do the trade, the cost is too much. You can still land a very good RB at 15 like Charles.
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby LMack » Thu Aug 16, 2012 8:54 am

I am okay with DMC and DeMarco Murray.

I would obviously prefer DMC and Forte, but we can't pretend that Forte has that many less question marks than Murray. If Murray stays healthy, I wouldn't be that shocked if he outperformed Forte. Murray can catch balls out of the backfield and unlike Forte he will be getting goaline work.

Forte does have track record and elite pass catching skills on his side. He is definitely safer. However, I just think it costs too much to move up. In my mind you are looking at the last RB in one tier (Forte) or the first RB in the next tier (Murray) and that difference is not worth the cost. The fourth and sixth rounds are gold mines for solid PPR WRs and I'd rather not move out of them.
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Re: Pre-draft trade

Postby jskudera » Thu Aug 16, 2012 9:11 am

thanks guys for your input.

i'll take DMC at 10, then see what's available come 15. i'd like to avoid jamaal because i feel a lot of TDs will be stolen this year. Demarco has me worried because of his O-Line... horrendous.

Thanks again
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