BurritoBoy wrote:I would go with Stafford.
Murray is a huge injury risk, his entire college career and his rookie year, he's been plagued by them. MJD has so many question marks as well.
I think the difference between Stafford (QB4) and Newton (QB5) this coming year will be much greater than what it was this past year. Newton's rushing TDs will come down, and I don't think he will throw for 4500 yards and 40ish TDs like I feel confident that Rodgers/Brees/Brady/Stafford will. I think he will throw around 4000 yards again and more like 25 TDs if he avoids the sophomore slump.
I have Newton projected as a bust relative to his ADP. He slowed down in the second half last year and it went greatly unnoticed. This coupled with the depth at the position and the introduction of yet another GL vulture in CAR (Tolbert) and I think he's clearly overvalued. As for Stafford, if he stays healthy, IMO he makes a run for top 3 again.
As for Murray, he is very much like DMC, high risk/reward, just less proven. It's a gamble of course, but so is MJD. Honestly OP said he picks last in the 1rst round. He could technically keep a RB and grab Brees when Stafford usually goes at the end of the 2nd. I like your reasoning but it's just so hard to grab a quality RB right now.