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Keep AJ Green as a third rounder? WHIR 100%

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Keep AJ Green as a third rounder? WHIR 100%

Postby LARS929 » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:35 pm

I'm in a 10 team H2H Keeper league with QB heavy scoring (TDs worth 6, ints worth 3, 1 pt per 20 yards).

Our league allows for 2 keepers, but with the option of a 3rd keeper, if he is a rookie (from last year), and that keeper takes the spot of your first pick in the draft.

I am currently planning to keep Chris Johnson and Matt Stafford. I also have AJ Green who I can potentially keep, but I would be using the 3rd pick in the draft (3rd pick, 3rd round).

Should I keep Green with the slight gamble that I wouldn't get anyone better from the non kept players at third overall? Or should I throw him back knowing I may be able to get him anyways at 3rd overall if no one is better?

I worry about option two because being so young with great upside he very well could be taken in the first two spots before I would pick.

Also after this year we are moving to 3 keepers with no restrictions.

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Re: Keep AJ Green as a third rounder? WHIR 100%

Postby Namaste » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:42 pm

I think I'd hang on to Green.
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Re: Keep AJ Green as a third rounder? WHIR 100%

Postby dagnuk » Mon Aug 20, 2012 1:47 pm

I do think you throw him back to see if you have a better option at 3rd overall. It's not too much of a risk to take for the upside of a player you truly covet falling there, and AJ should still be available when it's your turn. When you add Trent Richardson and Doug Martin to the list, you know you are guaranteed one of those three, plus other guys who aren't being kept.
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Re: Keep AJ Green as a third rounder? WHIR 100%

Postby BurritoBoy » Mon Aug 20, 2012 3:48 pm

dagnuk wrote:I do think you throw him back to see if you have a better option at 3rd overall. It's not too much of a risk to take for the upside of a player you truly covet falling there, and AJ should still be available when it's your turn. When you add Trent Richardson and Doug Martin to the list, you know you are guaranteed one of those three, plus other guys who aren't being kept.


This is how I see it. I'd be willing to bet big that Green is still there when you have your first pick. 10 team league and assume everyone keeps their best 2 players, that's just the top 20 unavailable. I don't think Green is the 20th best player in fantasy. Also I'm sure there are teams with more than 2 studs, so they will be in the pool as well. Either Green or I think a potentially better option will be there.

EDIT: thoughts? viewtopic.php?t=515759
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