3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Moderator: Football Moderators

3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby jurob » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:03 am

Standard scoring, but 6 pts for a passing td and -2 for an int.

I'm pretty sure that Rodgers is 1 and foster is going 2.

I'm torn on taking Rice or Brady.

I'm pretty sure I can get a Ryan type in the 5th round and hoping for Murray and Peterson with 2nd and 3rd.

Will getting a Ryan at 5 make it all even out if I get rice 3rd or will I be in a big hole passing on Brady?

Ideas?
jurob
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 22
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby Bherman13 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:10 am

You have to remember that when QBs get 6 points per TD, it doesn't actually affect their value. AT ALL. And it shouldn't affect their draft order. Every quarterback gets that bonus.

Personally, I think you can't go wrong with taking one of the only stud premier backs left. So either Rice or McCoy. In a PPR league, Rice. But since you said standard scoring, go with McCoy. He won't disappoint.
Bherman13
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 83
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 22 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby bandoogie » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:13 am

Bherman13 wrote:You have to remember that when QBs get 6 points per TD, it doesn't actually affect their value. AT ALL. And it shouldn't affect their draft order. Every quarterback gets that bonus.



I am curious as to why you say this. Last year my league was just like the setup in question and the top 3qbs scored more than 100+ over the top 3 rbs.
bandoogie
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

CafeholicResponse Team
Posts: 810
(Past Year: 242)
Joined: 19 Aug 2012
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby jurob » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:27 am

big 3 qb's 448, 487 and 489 last year.
Big 3 rb's 250, 280 and 300 last year.

Eli and Matt 344 and 333 last year.

Standard scoring would have been

Big 3 qb 352 380 385

Eli and Matt 273 260

Brady/Eli comparison
Standard scoring
22ppg vs 17ppg

My scoring
28ppg vs 20.2ppg

There is an advantage for the big 3 in 6/2 scoring because they typically throw more td and less int's
jurob
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 22
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby Bherman13 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:51 am

Yes, QBs always score more than RBs. But its about the value at the position, not the total points. If you look at last years PPG, the difference between the 1 and 10 QB and the 1 and 20 RB (standard top starters per league) makes you lean towards wanting an Elite back.

Brees was the top scoring QB in standard leagues last year, with 25.35 PPG. Rogers was a close second with 25.21 PPG. The # 10 QB was March Sanchez at 17.02 Points. Thats a difference of 8.33 PPG.

When you look at RBs, Ray Rice was the top back with 23.30 PPG. Second was McCoy with 20.53 PPG. The 20th RB, or the lowest ranked starter in a standard 10 team league, was Pierre Thomas with 8.25 PPG. thats a difference of 15.05 PPG.

The value of a top tier RB vs a top tier QB is 15.05 to 8.33 PPG.

But I decided to factor in the +2 to TDs for you, to see how much of a difference it might make in my argument. After all, I did reply on assumption, so as I'm typing this, I may find myself to be incorrect in my theory. The top scoring QB was still Drew Brees with 31.10 PPG. # 2 was Still Rodgers, with 30.84 PPG. And # 10 was still Sanchez at 19.20 PPG. That gives us a difference of 11.9 PPG.

(Tidbit: The only change in the top 10 QBs was Newton Falling from 3 to 5, being passed by Brady and Stafford.)

Even with the 6 Points for TDs as opposed to 4, it still leaves us with the fact that the difference between top and bottom QB and RB is 11.9 PPG for QBs and 15.05 PPG for RB.
Bherman13
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 83
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 22 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby SameSongNDance » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:53 am

Bherman13 wrote:You have to remember that when QBs get 6 points per TD, it doesn't actually affect their value. AT ALL. And it shouldn't affect their draft order. Every quarterback gets that bonus.

Personally, I think you can't go wrong with taking one of the only stud premier backs left. So either Rice or McCoy. In a PPR league, Rice. But since you said standard scoring, go with McCoy. He won't disappoint.


You do realize three QBs threw for 40+ TDs last year, one throwing for 39, more than double the TD amount of any other position. Of course it effects their value relative to other positions much like the PPR format is used to level the playing field for WRs. In 6PT per passing TD leagues, elite QBs are a force to be reckoned with. With that said, I'm still in the camp that you have to go with a RB but due to how shallow the pool coupled he depth at the QB position this year.
Last edited by SameSongNDance on Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:55 am, edited 1 time in total.
SameSongNDance
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 1574
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby jurob » Tue Aug 21, 2012 1:54 am

If I had the first pick. No question I would take Rodgers. He averaged 32ppg (15 games) last year and will probably do it again unless he gets injured.

This era of the qb really kills my fantasy football drafting technique.
jurob
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 22
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby jurob » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:02 am

Rodgers only played in 15 games last year.

Bherman13 wrote:Yes, QBs always score more than RBs. But its about the value at the position, not the total points. If you look at last years PPG, the difference between the 1 and 10 QB and the 1 and 20 RB (standard top starters per league) makes you lean towards wanting an Elite back.

Brees was the top scoring QB in standard leagues last year, with 25.35 PPG. Rogers was a close second with 25.21 PPG. The # 10 QB was March Sanchez at 17.02 Points. Thats a difference of 8.33 PPG.

When you look at RBs, Ray Rice was the top back with 23.30 PPG. Second was McCoy with 20.53 PPG. The 20th RB, or the lowest ranked starter in a standard 10 team league, was Pierre Thomas with 8.25 PPG. thats a difference of 15.05 PPG.

The value of a top tier RB vs a top tier QB is 15.05 to 8.33 PPG.

But I decided to factor in the +2 to TDs for you, to see how much of a difference it might make in my argument. After all, I did reply on assumption, so as I'm typing this, I may find myself to be incorrect in my theory. The top scoring QB was still Drew Brees with 31.10 PPG. # 2 was Still Rodgers, with 30.84 PPG. And # 10 was still Sanchez at 19.20 PPG. That gives us a difference of 11.9 PPG.

(Tidbit: The only change in the top 10 QBs was Newton Falling from 3 to 5, being passed by Brady and Stafford.)

Even with the 6 Points for TDs as opposed to 4, it still leaves us with the fact that the difference between top and bottom QB and RB is 11.9 PPG for QBs and 15.05 PPG for RB.
jurob
Cheerleader
Cheerleader


Posts: 22
(Past Year: 6)
Joined: 23 Sep 2010
Home Cafe: Football

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby Bherman13 » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:06 am

So he is at 32.89 PPG. That is still a QB difference of 13.69. Still less than the difference for RBs.
Bherman13
Water Boy
Water Boy


Posts: 83
(Past Year: 5)
Joined: 22 Feb 2011
Home Cafe: Baseball

Re: 3rd pick, who do I pick in the 1st round?

Postby SameSongNDance » Tue Aug 21, 2012 2:13 am

Bherman13 wrote:So he is at 32.89 PPG. That is still a QB difference of 13.69. Still less than the difference for RBs.


Your argument is flawed. The difference between the #1QB and #10QB cannot be compared to the difference between the #1RB and the #10RB, you're comparing apples and oranges. This coupled with the fact that you think QBs getting 6PTs rather than 4PTs shouldn't effect their ADP in a draft confuses me.
SameSongNDance
Head Coach
Head Coach

User avatar
CafeholicCafe Ranker
Posts: 1574
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 14:13 hours
(and 38 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact