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Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby Zeppelin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 12:58 pm

I'm in a 12-team PPR league, 6 points for all TDs with a bonus point system for long TDs. We are allowed to keep two players, and I have kept Darren McFadden and Cam Newton. I have the fifth pick, and I strongly expect the first four picks to be Rodgers, Foster, Rice, McCoy in some order (first rounders from the year before cannot be kept). That leaves me with the following options.

-Draft Chris Johnson. I think he's pretty clearly the #4 running back, but I also view him as a significant drop-off from the top three. I definitely wouldn't be excited by him at 5.

-Draft either Brees or Brady and trade him for Calvin Johnson. I have this deal on the table; he's just waiting for me to accept it. He picks at the end of the first round but forfeited his 1st rounder to keep Calvin. He wants a stud qb, so he'd do the trade. I would have DMC, Newton and Calvin Johnson as my core three.

-Here's the fairly bold move that I'm strongly considering: Draft Tom Brady and trade Cam Newton for Jimmy Graham. This deal is also on the table for me. Brady over Newton probably seems obvious, but here's the catch: I could keep Cam Newton again next year for a 9th round pick. I couldn't keep Brady or Graham after this year, so I'd be mortgaging a great keeper to go for it fully this season. I'm just not sure I could resist a core of Brady, Graham, DMC, and whoever I get with pick 19.


I could also sit tight, hope one of the "Big Four" I don't expect to be around do not get picked, and take that player at 5. Like I said, I'm not expecting that to be an option, though.

Right now, I feel least excited by taking Chris Johnson, and I think I'm basically deciding between having Newton/Calvin/DMC (and being able to keep Cam next year) or Brady/Graham/DMC (and being able to keep none of those next year).

The reason I am a bit hesitant to take Calvin is because of the insane depth at WR. I'd like to stick to my conviction and not take a WR in the top 3 rounds, because every mock in which I've done that I've really liked my team.

So basically, can you talk me out of giving up a great keeper in Cam to have a great core for this season? I'm beating myself up over this, and the draft is tomorrow.

Thanks in advance, and feel free to post your questions here. I'll definitely answer.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby SameSongNDance » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:06 pm

I really like the idea of you trading Newton from Graham here and picking up Brees, not Brady, who has struggled for the most part in the preseason due to shoddy O-Line play. Brees looks like the safer of the two at this point IMO (plus you get the Brees to Graham connection ;-D ). As for Graham, being able to play the equivalent of WR1 in a position where everyone is forced to start the equivalent of a WR3 or worse, week in week out, is a recipe for success. He's well worth his first round price tag, especially in PPR. So, if you think you can trade Newton for Graham after grabbing Brees (again IMO the safer choice), I'd take that route. BTW, I'm assuming you can't keep first rounders with who's available, right?
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby Zeppelin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:13 pm

Yes, that's right. Can't keep first rounders. You have to forfeit the pick ahead of the round in which you picked the player. And the reason I couldn't keep Graham next year is because we have a two-year limit on keepers. This is the second year Graham has been kept.

That is interesting about Brees over Brady. I've been saying I like Brady more because he has better weapons and will likely get more TDs. But my league gives bonuses for long TDs, and Brees averaged 3.5 ppg more than Brady in my league last year.

I had also been worried about Brees a little with Payton out, and I'm skeptical of looking to far into New England' O-line in pre-season.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby nkjordan2323 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:15 pm

I actually like the idea of trading Brady for Johnson. Jimmy Graham is no slouch either, but Johnson has no run game and the QB with the most attempts in the league throwing to him.

I like the idea of carrying Cam over again in year 3 rather than mortgaging a player.

And to your point, I am also least excited about the CJ2K option. I lost all faith in that guy and think hes going nowhere but downhill. Granted, he cant do much worse than last season, i just dont see him doing a whole lot better. Bad O-line and he'll be running scared again by week 3-4 if he doesnt put together a big game. I could be wrong, but im avoiding that guy this year.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby dblj9911 » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:19 pm

I don't think I would make any moves just yet and I'd let the draft play out. Someone may slide to you and make you want to keep them, or you may have a killer draft and decide to go for it and trade away Cam or making the trade for Calvin.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby SameSongNDance » Sat Aug 25, 2012 1:20 pm

Zeppelin wrote:Yes, that's right. Can't keep first rounders. You have to forfeit the pick ahead of the round in which you picked the player. And the reason I couldn't keep Graham next year is because we have a two-year limit on keepers. This is the second year Graham has been kept.

That is interesting about Brees over Brady. I've been saying I like Brady more because he has better weapons and will likely get more TDs. But my league gives bonuses for long TDs, and Brees averaged 3.5 ppg more than Brady in my league last year.

I had also been worried about Brees a little with Payton out, and I'm skeptical of looking to far into New England' O-line in pre-season.


Call it a hunch, call it whatever. I'm aware that you shouldn't read too much into the preseason but I saw Belichick leave Brady in until end of the 3rd quarter last night so he could "try and get something going", he NEVER does that. Their offense has looked nothing short of pedestrian thus far and although I'm fully expecting them to get it going by week 1 of the regular season, I still think Brees is the safer option. Let's be honest though, the difference between the big 3 QBs, especially Brady and Brees since they don't offer the ground game Rodgers does, is marginal at best. There are many more arguments one could make to take one over the other.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby Zeppelin » Sat Aug 25, 2012 11:36 pm

Anyone else have any thoughts on this? We draft tomorrow.
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby latsprewell20002000 » Sun Aug 26, 2012 7:34 am

SameSongNDance wrote:I really like the idea of you trading Newton from Graham here and picking up Brees, not Brady, who has struggled for the most part in the preseason due to shoddy O-Line play. Brees looks like the safer of the two at this point IMO (plus you get the Brees to Graham connection ;-D ). As for Graham, being able to play the equivalent of WR1 in a position where everyone is forced to start the equivalent of a WR3 or worse, week in week out, is a recipe for success. He's well worth his first round price tag, especially in PPR. So, if you think you can trade Newton for Graham after grabbing Brees (again IMO the safer choice), I'd take that route. BTW, I'm assuming you can't keep first rounders with who's available, right?


Exactly this. Wow that was easy!!
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Re: Tough Keeper Question WHIR

Postby Cbass » Sun Aug 26, 2012 4:58 pm

I would get Graham for sure, and also the qb situation, I would take ether one. On that note, I think Brady might be the best pick.
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