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NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 11:35 am

10.) Shonn Greene (RB – NYJ)

Shonn Greene, in my opinion, has been extremely overvalued in each of the last 2 seasons in fantasy football come draft day. The lofty expectations from fantasy owners were bound to lead to disappointment, especially with Tomlinson stealing touches. This year there are no running backs that will challenge Greene for playing time, and with Greene slipping so far in drafts, you will finally get what you paid for with Greene, if not more. The only worry here is Tebow stealing some touchdowns. I think 1400 total yards and 7 or 8 scores is a very reasonable expectation from Greene, who is usually being drafted as a backup.


9.) Michael Vick (QB – PHI)

Vick is still a fantasy force. Yes things went downhill last year for “the dream team” and Vick disappointed a lot of fantasy owners. The thing about Vick is, he is still a much improved passer from the Michael Vick we saw in a Falcons jersey. He is in a great situation with a lot of talent surrounding him. My mindset here is… Why draft Cam Newton when you can get Michael Vick 3 rounds later? Vick has only played three fourths of a season these last couple of years, and he still passed for over 3,000 yards both seasons (a feat he never did in Atlanta). I expect 4300 yards passing with 25 TD’s as well as 700 yards rushing with about 5 rushing TD’s giving Vick 30 TD’s total as well to give him 5000 total yards and 30 TD’s. Cam Newton could possibly achieve this, but I am going to take my chances with the cheaper Michael Vick.


8.) Jason Witten (TE – DAL)

Witten has an early injury concern due to his spleen, yes. Witten is also extremely tough and plays through almost anything, so I don’t expect him to miss time, and if he does, it’ll be 1 or 2 games at the most. Witten belongs in the same tier as Vernon Davis, Jermichael Finley, and Antonio Gates, but he has is being drafted 1 tier below. For someone who has caught over 900 yards in each of the last 5 seasons, does he really deserve to drop back this far on draft boards? I don’t think so. His situation hasn’t changed, and I think a 900 yard, 7 touchdown season is in store. You cant complain with those numbers from your tight end, especially when you consider the discount.


7.) Willis McGahee (RB – DEN)

McGahee had a very nice bounce back year in 2011 when he finally saw a role where he was the featured back. McGahee once again finds himself in 2012 as the featured back for the Denver Broncos, and this time he will be able to run the ball without 8 man stacking the box at all times. He also won’t have to deal with Tim Tebow stealing rushing touchdowns from him, and he should be able to improve on his 2011 numbers and possible have a career year at the age of 30. McGahee will have a lot more room to run, and he should have all the goal line carries. His upside his huge, but I’m drafting him expecting 1300 yards, and 10 scores.


6.) Reggie Wayne (WR – IND)

I think it’s obvious that Reggie Wayne found himself in the worst possible position for a wide receiver last year. The fact that he STILL almost caught for 1000 yards is almost beyond belief when you look at the QB play that Indianapolis had last season. I don’t think Wayne will ever be what he was with Peyton Manning, but he doesn’t have to be at the price he is being drafted at. With Andrew Luck at the helm, I think he will find comfort and confidence in a veteran like Reggie Wayne. With Pierre Garcon and Dallas Clark out of the picture, Reggie Wayne will be the clear go to guy. A Steve Smith like rejuvenation is probably asking for a bit too much, but I think 1100 yards and 8 scores is reasonable.


5.) Matt Schaub (QB – HOU)

Schaub is a solid QB who racks up a ton of passing yards and will throw for 25+ TD’s. A guy who throws for well over 4,000 yards also has the upside to throw for 30 TD’s or more. I’m not expecting this when I’m drafting a guy like Matt Schaub, but I certainly know it s a possibility, especially since he has the luxury of throwing to Andre Johnson. Schaub is being drafted at the price of almost nothing, and he can put up numbers as good as Eli. For a guy fully capable of throwing for 4500 yards and 27 or so touchdowns, you certainly can’t beat the price.


4.) Demaryius Thomas (WR – DEN)

Thomas is the most talented wide receiver on a team with Peyton Manning as the QB. Peyton Manning is a guy who seemingly makes any wide receiver looks good, but when he gets to throw to someone with great talent, it becomes special (Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne). Thomas enters his 3rd season (the year most wide receivers tend to breakout), and he could easily find himself in the pro bowl this season. If Thomas can find success with Tim Tebow, imagine what could do with Peyton Manning. I think 1200 yards and 10 scores is very realistic with Thomas. This is the year Thomas will become a true #1 target, and he is being drafted as a #2.


3.) Adrian Peterson (RB – MIN)

Peterson is the perfect high risk, high reward candidate for the upcoming season. If he can be healthy he is still the once in a generation physical freak that is fully capable of carrying fantasy teams on his shoulder. Peterson is a guy that can easily be put into the Foster/Rice/McCoy tier if he is fully healthy. He may not start the season 100 percent, but I think he will be 100 percent come fantasy football playoff time and a 3rd or 4th round pick is completely worth whatever risk you are putting into Peterson. An almost definite top 5 running back if he can stay healthy, I will take AP with confidence. You might want Gerhart as a handcuff though. We know what Peterson is capable of when he is healthy, and this is probably the cheapest you will ever be able to get him.


2.) Phillip Rivers (QB – SD)

Phil Rivers had a down year last season… And he was still the 9th best QB in fantasy football. He’s had 4 straight seasons of 4,000 yards, and 27+ TD’s. He has proven that he can produce even without the best of talent surrounding him. Rivers had a very uncharacteristic year last year when he threw 20 interceptions, but he still managed to produce top 10 numbers from the QB position. I saw Rivers slip into the 9th round the other day, and I just couldn’t think of anything other than “what a tremendous value pick.” Rivers is a guy most looked at as a top 5 QB heading into last season, and its easy to see why when you look at how consistent he has been over the years. I’m gonna keep expecting 4,000 yards and about 30 scores from Rivers until he gives me a reason not to.


1.) Peyton Manning (QB – DEN)

To top this list off we have Peyton Manning. When it comes to value, it just doesn’t get any better than realistically getting a guy that can carry your team to a championship in the 7th or so round. As long as Peyton’s neck holds up, I don’t see a reason why an owner would expect his usually 4,000+ yards and 30+ TD’s. I’m convinced that Manning will return to his old form (or at least reach his old form by the time playoffs come around), and you can even draft him as a backup. Getting a guy fully capable of rivaling Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Stafford with such a massive discount is an offer that too good to refuse, even if you don’t draft him as a starter. If Manning clicks, then the whole offense will click.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby Stevooo » Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:09 pm

I cant take a list with Shonne Green as a "value pick" seriosuly. Joking aside, I agree with most of the list. How about Ryan Matthews dropping to late 2nd or early 3rd now because of the collar bone injury. He is in the same boat as AP. I love Witten on this list.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby NikkiSixx » Tue Aug 28, 2012 3:51 pm

Stevooo wrote:I cant take a list with Shonne Green as a "value pick" seriosuly. Joking aside, I agree with most of the list. How about Ryan Matthews dropping to late 2nd or early 3rd now because of the collar bone injury. He is in the same boat as AP. I love Witten on this list.


Usually I would agree with you, but with him having the workload for himself and him falling so far down the rankings this season, I have to think he is of good value for once. Me being a Bills fan, I hope he falters and doesnt do very well, but I think he has his best season this year. He should get enough touches to make him worth an 8th or 9th round pick. Too many other guys in that tier have to share touches with other running backs.

I am sure some running back in that tier will have the guy they are sharing time with falter or get hurt and they will end up being much better than Greene... But to pick out who that is at this point is too tough. I think Greene is the safest to get 250-300 touches and post decent numbers each week. I still say 1400 total yards and 7 or 8 scores is a reasonable expectation for Green this year, and that makes him a great value pick for where he is going.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby Mr.Joshua » Tue Aug 28, 2012 5:52 pm

Fantasy is all about personal preference, but the only guys that I'm interested in at their current ADP's on this list are Vick, Wayne and Thomas. I just don't see the value on the rest....Peyton is still an injury risk and with how much deeper QB is getting by the day, I just dont see it. Rivers keeps loosing more weapons every year and his preseason was ugly, not worth it to me. AP - I know people are buying into the fact that he's super human, but the knee issues on his time table, history wise are not favorable. Schaub - a run 1st team with a top notch run o-line, I dont see much changing from last year when he was healthy. McGahee could put up some decent #'s but I just see so much more value at WR when he is being drafted. With Whitten's injury and his age, I'd rather grab 2 young up and coming TE's than risk it. Shonne has yet to show anything and I remember the same hype from last year.....J-E-T-S have ZERO pre-season td's. Again, fantasy is all about how we each see diffent players.....good luck to all ;-D
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby k.k. » Tue Aug 28, 2012 6:37 pm

Stevooo wrote:I cant take a list with Shonne Green as a "value pick" seriosuly.


Mr.Joshua wrote:Shonne has yet to show anything and I remember the same hype from last year.....J-E-T-S have ZERO pre-season td's. Again, fantasy is all about how we each see diffent players.....good luck to all ;-D


Gotta agree with those two comments. I like your list but Greene is someone I'll be staying far away from in drafts this year after owning him last year. Add Tebow to the mix in NY and it's a bigger 'no thanks' than ever.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby moochman » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:11 pm

Mr.Joshua wrote: Shonne has yet to show anything and I remember the same hype from last year.....J-E-T-S have ZERO pre-season td's. Again, fantasy is all about how we each see diffent players.....good luck to all ;-D


Lions won all their preseason games a few years ago.....only to go onto to an historic 0-16 cleansing enema of a season.

That said, concerns about Greene lackluster running are warranted. Also not high on Vick. Just think odds of him not missing games due to injury are too high.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby Mr.Joshua » Wed Aug 29, 2012 6:55 pm

moochman wrote:
Mr.Joshua wrote: Shonne has yet to show anything and I remember the same hype from last year.....J-E-T-S have ZERO pre-season td's. Again, fantasy is all about how we each see diffent players.....good luck to all ;-D


Lions won all their preseason games a few years ago.....only to go onto to an historic 0-16 cleansing enema of a season.

That said, concerns about Greene lackluster running are warranted. Also not high on Vick. Just think odds of him not missing games due to injury are too high.

-Did they score any points though.....Like I said, to each their own. Yes, No way Vick plays a full season, but if he falls into the 5-6th round, i say the risk is worth it, especially since you can get a quality back up with how deep QB is.
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby NikkiSixx » Thu Aug 30, 2012 6:44 pm

I understand that these probably aren't all the most popular value picks. Some of them may even be a little bold. I just thought it would be helpful if everyone had another list to look at to maximize their value with each pick. ;-D
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby Mr.Joshua » Thu Aug 30, 2012 7:37 pm

NikkiSixx wrote:I understand that these probably aren't all the most popular value picks. Some of them may even be a little bold. I just thought it would be helpful if everyone had another list to look at to maximize their value with each pick. ;-D

Always nice to hear other peoples opinions, nice job ;-D
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Re: NikkiSixx's top 10 value picks for 2012

Postby whodey#9 » Fri Aug 31, 2012 1:40 am

NikkiSixx wrote:I understand that these probably aren't all the most popular value picks. Some of them may even be a little bold. I just thought it would be helpful if everyone had another list to look at to maximize their value with each pick. ;-D


I like them. Of course they aint that popular, if they were then they wouldnt make the list! ;-D
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