Fantasy Football Cafe Forum

by **bossfrog** » Sat Sep 01, 2012 2:38 pm

I'm in a 14 team, 2 keeper league.

I have picks 1.09 and 1.11 this year.

I'm keeping Marshawn Lynch for sure, but I'm a bit torn between Hernandez and Mathews.

If I keep Hernandez, I can use both picks on RBs and perhaps get someone more reliable without perhaps as much upside as Mathews.

Or I keep Lynch and Mathews, draft a RB with 1.09 and go BPA at 1.11. There won't be a lot of competition for QBs as 9 teams have a keeper QB, so I don't necessarily need to grab one that early. I'm leaning toward keeping Hernandez due to my slight aprehension about Mathews, but on the other hand, I don't want to be like the poor saps who gave up on Foster by trading him away in Week 2 last year. I guess it comes down to confidence in Mathews. A broken clavicle isn't like a knee. When they heal, the issue is over and done with.

My question is... what would you do?

by **bhgilliland** » Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:15 pm

Take solace in Aaron's contract. The Pats want him and he will be an integral part of that offense. With Lloyd producing the deep threat, the always present Gronk attracting cover and Welker's known rapport with Brady, Hernandez is a keeper and will def see his share of looks and passes. RB's are very uncertain this year, so drafting two good ones wouldn't be a bad choice. If someone's starter goes down you can always use one as trade bait if you feel he's not useful. Or hell, god forbid Marshawn goes down, you won't panic.

Don't get me started on Matthews. Just... uhg. Go with Aaron.

Hope I helped.

by **bossfrog** » Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:22 pm

bhgilliland wrote:Take solace in Aaron's contract. The Pats want him and he will be an integral part of that offense. With Lloyd producing the deep threat, the always present Gronk attracting cover and Welker's known rapport with Brady, Hernandez is a keeper and will def see his share of looks and passes. RB's are very uncertain this year, so drafting two good ones wouldn't be a bad choice. If someone's starter goes down you can always use one as trade bait if you feel he's not useful. Or hell, god forbid Marshawn goes down, you won't panic.

Don't get me started on Matthews. Just... uhg. Go with Aaron.

Hope I helped.

Well, you've corroborated what I'm kind of thinking, although I'm not quite as down on Mathews personally. A broken clavicle doesn't worry me. They're thin bones that snap pretty easily when hit just right and that's what happened with him.

But I think if I keep Lynch and Hern and draft say, one of the Jacksons and Martin, I should be sitting pretty. OTOH, keeping Mathews, I can still get a good RB but Hern could be gone. So I think you've help me solidify the plan.

I'm actually among those who feel that Hern will emerge as the #1 target in NE this year.

by **bhgilliland** » Sat Sep 01, 2012 3:28 pm

Don't worry to much friend. It's a safe choice statistically and your gut is right. I drafted Doug Martin in the 5th and I feel as though I got a steal. Blount has worn out his welcome in Tampa, and Martin is showing he is a true and solid No. 1. Draft him knowing your high risk/high reward instinct is correct. And you're right about Ryan's injury, but ask yourself this - will he 'wow' you this season? You know what he is capable of and there are better options out there. Martin is unproven, but isn't that why we play fantasy? Risk taking is pinnacle.

by **bossfrog** » Sat Sep 01, 2012 4:18 pm

bhgilliland wrote:Don't worry to much friend. It's a safe choice statistically and your gut is right. I drafted Doug Martin in the 5th and I feel as though I got a steal. Blount has worn out his welcome in Tampa, and Martin is showing he is a true and solid No. 1. Draft him knowing your high risk/high reward instinct is correct. And you're right about Ryan's injury, but ask yourself this - will he 'wow' you this season? You know what he is capable of and there are better options out there. Martin is unproven, but isn't that why we play fantasy? Risk taking is pinnacle.

Here's the final plan. Keep Lynch and Hern. Draft a solid RB with 1.09 (there are 11 RBs being kept and if Martin is still there at #9, it will feel like a steal), draft a solid WR with 1.11 and pick up a QB or BPA with my next pick at 2.13. There are 4 teams without keeper QBs (three besides myself) and if the other three teams have taken a QB, I'll do BPA. Otherwise, if they haven't, I'll probably go QB.

Keeper drafts are so much fun, eh?