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Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

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Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby T-Lo » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:18 pm

I've been playing FF for a while now, but I still consider myself a beginner, because I never took it serious until recently. For veterans, do you go with your gut more or the logic of predictors?

I ask this because I'm feeling like crap about my FF team right now. I made a game-time decision to play Cook - TE instead of Bennett - TE. Bennett would have netted me 21 points. Also, Pierre Thomas got 23 points where Bush only got me 5 points.

Lastly, I have Stafford and love the crap out of him (R1 pick) but I wanted to play Dalton instead, but with my bias for him and the experts ranking him higher, I kept him even against the 49ers. Dalton scored a huge 33 points.

So I'm sitting here looking at my team thinking what could have been, instead of sitting at 62-88 right now I could be blowing the other guy out of the water.

What do you go with more often, your instinct or the logic?
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Re: Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby Gibbs Baby!!! » Sun Sep 16, 2012 3:32 pm

You're gonna get a lot of different answers here, but this is what I think.

Do as much research as you can, utilize that data and information you've researched, and go with what your gut tells you.

While it may sound contradictory, it's what works. I've been doing fantasy football for almost 20 years now. Back in my college days, before the explosion of FF sites on the web, I had a distinct advantage over my cousins, in that I had the time to do research in various periodicals to make decisions on who to start, what free agents to pick up, etc. Hence, I won a few years in that league.

Now, I'm on this site trying to get opinions and data on my players. I've been a member for a few years, but this year my participation on the boards has been much greater, and I'm seeing the returns in my leagues. I'm also getting a lot of information on several other sites, but have been getting some good advice right here.

So, to put it simpler, I go with my gut, after thinking about it logically.
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Re: Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby northern » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:06 pm

I feel like it's such a crap shoot sometimes. I try to look at the points predictions, etc. and ask for advice here when I am really torn. That being said, I used that process and played Jared Cook over Brent Celek today, and it likely cost me my game, so go figure...
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Re: Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby wtr23 » Sun Sep 16, 2012 6:39 pm

I've got to agree, going with your gut instinct after doing a fair amount of research. When I look at projected points, I don't plan on my team getting anything around those numbers. I use them more to determine what sort of match up they will have, the more proj. points they show the better the match up. I'll watch ESPN and some of the per-game/pos-game shows, looking for who's hot at the moment and deciding who to add to my roster.
Then I come here, and I'll ask for opinons on who the guys would think is going to have the best game. I'm fairly new to this site, but I've found myself playing a lot better this year than ever before. Whenever someone says 'coin flip' or 'this player, as long as _____', or 'watch out for' I usually compare the projected points and go with my gut feeling.
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Re: Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby mmzapp » Mon Sep 17, 2012 3:42 pm

Hey guys- first time poster, experienced player. Great answer by Gibbs- do research, be informed, but use your own criteria when making decisions. For example, I don't care if Alfred Morris is a "good fit" with the Shanahans and "moves the pile". He is a marginal talent, is not involved in the passing game, was a 7th round draft pick THIS YEAR, and will eventually lose his job after a few 16-47 type lines. But what I do care about is whether he is the starter for the next game and what he does during the practice week. That is what the experts are for.

Anyway, every decision you made was correct- and you would do it all over again. You cannot predict week to week what will happen in Fantasy Football. But you can somewhat predict over the course of the year. Stafford is a stud until he has 4 to 5 more weeks of this kind of play (which will not happen). Dalton is a backup. You will always have random bench guys who outperform your starters- don't give it a second thought.
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Re: Gut feelings vs logic/experts?

Postby murphysxm » Thu Sep 20, 2012 9:06 pm

Matthew Berry sums it up the best for me. I am paraphrasing him, but experts are guys like you that can spend more time researching. always trust your gut over somebody else's. That being said, if 10 experts say start player A, your gut could be wrong if you like player B......
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