fierro33 wrote:cuffs i traded jordy nelson/donald brown/randy moss for roddy white/miles austin week 1......then traded alfred morris,andre brown,pettigrew for cam newton before week 3
i agree with you that hartline could very well end up with more pts than lloyd, but lloyd has more value at this point, which is why im torn here. Do i get lloyd just for a better trade chip?
It sounds crazy not to trade Hartline for Lloyd. I almost can't believe that I'm suggesting it, and I probably wouldn't in a lot of situations. Lloyd is the safer option. He's in a good offense with a great QB. But it seems like there's a ceiling to his production. In week 1, when Hernandez was playing, Lloyd had 5 receptions for 69 yards. Then Hernandez goes down and there are 6-8 more targets to go around. Welker seems to be getting most of those. It seems pretty clear by now that Lloyd is not going to be Randy Moss 2007, as some had hoped. Lloyd is in a 4 receiver timeshare with two tight ends and Welker. They use him to stretch the field, open up the underneath routes, and keep the secondary honest. His targets have gone up with Hernandez out, but Hernandez is the "go" TE in that offense, so he is in more direct competition with Lloyd than any other single receiver for targets because they are the two more downfield receivers. Even with Hernandez out Lloyd has 3 games below 70 yards and only one TD. And the Pats feel Hernandez has the advantage matched up with a linebacker or strong safety versus Lloyd being matched up with the opponents best CB. Plus Lloyd doesn't seem to be used in the red zone much at all. Hernandez coming back almost has to hurt Lloyd's production. (Right now Lloyd isn't in the top 30 in ESPN standard leagues, and that's with Hernandez out.)
Hartline is more risky and could definitely fall off. But he has a higher ceiling, to me. Hartline doesn't seem to have any threat to his targets, and right now he's getting a whole slew of them. Maybe..maybe Gaffney will make a dent, but I don't see much of one from him. Hartline is in his 4th season, so he's right around that magic 3rd year breakout age for a WR. He's the stretch receiver on a team that just invested the 8th overall pick in a QB, and they are letting him throw.
The circumstances could be ripe for Hartline to be this year's out of nowhere receiver, like Cruz last season. Cruz in week 4 had had 0 catch/game, a 2-catch/17 yard game, a 3-catch/110 yard game, and a 6 catch/98 yard game. 2 great games and 2 bad ones. He finished the season as a top 5 WR (maybe the top WR, can't remember). I am sure there were some people who traded him after week 4, thinking they were "selling high" and got someone good but not stellar for him. That may have been the move with the safest odds, but it sure wasn't a home run trade.
With the team you already have, you don't need to play safe odds. Your team is stacked. You don't need anything right now, except arguably RB depth if you are like me and would rather play an RB than a WR as your flex 100% of the time. You have several WRs who are just as likely to post comparable stats to Lloyd any given week. I mean, you have Miles Austin and Antonio Brown on your bench. I don't see where having one more guy like that gets you, other than a bunch of WRs you have to choose between (and if you're like me the one you sit is the one that has a 2 TD game).
Hartline could fall off and wind up having a season like Torrey Smith did last year -- 2-3 huge games and the rest very mediocre. But what does that cost you? You still have a stacked team. But if Hartline does continue on this insane trajectory, you have a top 5 WR that you got for nothing. (He's top 5 right now on ESPN leagues.) You can always trade one of your other very good WRs for someone (like a sell-high on Britt, because he's bound to have a few big games this year), or you can trade two of your good WRs for one excellent WR to a team that needs depth, or pair Britt after one of said big games with another WR and try to get a top WR.
The bottom line is you can afford to take the risk that Hartline is this year's breakout top 12 WR. If he keeps getting double digit targets per game as the stretch receiver, there's certainly a chance. I don't see Lloyd finishing in the top 12 under any circumstances.
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by fierro33 » Wed Oct 03, 2012 12:12 pm 
