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Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:26 am

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=525021

Post-Mortem for Last week:

1) BAL- 8
2) TB - 14
3) HOU - 4
4) NE - 6
5) ATL - 16
6) ARI - 7
7) STL - 3
8) CIN - 3
9) MIN - 2
10) PHI - 2

Median score 7.5
Only 3/10 were above average this week with 2 being breakout games.
A terrible week for the Analyzer.

Missed: DEN-29; NYG-19, CLE-16, NYJ-16, WAS -16, BUF - 12, SD-12, KC-10, DET-9, GB-9, OAK -8

Bleacher had BAL-8, CIN-3, PIT - 5, DET-9, STL - 3, SF-0, ATL - 16, ARI-7, HOU-4, PHI-2 which was also 3/10 but only 1 break out. Analyzer has 'beaten' Bleacher two weeks in a row and we'll drop it from our comparisons.

KFFL: BAL - 8, CIN-3, STlL-3, MIA - 6, ARI-7, NE-6, BUF-12, TB-14, DET,9, PH-2; 4/10 above average with 3 breakouts; Did better than the analyzer.

Michaels/Yahoo blogger: PIT-5, HOU, 4, BAL, 8 SF-0, NYG-1, CIN-3, MIN-2, ATL-16, NE-6, DEN-29; 4/10 above average with 2 breakouts, did better than analyzer.

NFL: PIT-5, BAL-8, TB-14, ATL-16, CLE-16, NYJ-16, BUF-12, SD-12, MIA-6, SF-0; 7/10 above average and 6/10 breakouts! Much better! We'll definitely keep looking at the NFL projection system.

FF Toolbox: HOU-4, ARI-7, NE-6, SF-0, BAL-8, PIT-5, MIN-2, BUF-12, PHI-2, DET-9; 3/10 above average 1 breakout, worse than Analyzer. That's two weeks in a row the analyzer has beaten the FF toolbox, so we'll drop it from comparison.

ESPN: CIN-3, STL-3, IND- -3, MIA-6, MIN-2, NE-6, WAS-16, BUF-12, DAL-0, TEN-3, 2/10 above average, 2 breakouts, worse than Analyzer, will drop from comparisons.

Fantasy Fix: BAL-9, SF-0, PIT-5, ATL-16, MIA-6, NE-6, ARI-7, MIN-2, PHI-2, HOU-4; 2 above average, one breakout. Worse than analyzer. Last week FFix was better than Analyzer, this week worse than analyzer. Will keep for comparison.

Yahoo: PIT-5, ARi-7, BAL-8, SF-0, ATL-16, TB-14, MIA-6, PHI-2, DET-9; 4/10 above average, 2 breakout games. About as good as analyzer, one more above average game but one fewer breakout game. Will keep for comparison.

Thus far, the Analyzer has been better than Bleacher, FF toolbox and ESPN.
About the same as FF Fix.
KFFL and the NFL computerized scoring system were better than the Analyzer.

The Analyzer was correctly cautious of SF but the other 3 risky bets BUF, CLE and DET) turned in above average to break out games.

If we looked at the unedited top 10 of the analyzer: TB-14, HOU-4, BAL-8, CLE-16, ARI-7, STL-3, NE-6, BUF-12, DET-9, CIN-3 we would have had 5 above average with 3/10 breakouts. Actually better than when we adjusted the rankings.

However, the system continues to perform as well or better than other commercially available systems and I can produce it every week before the typical Wednesday Waiver Wire picks. And I'm pretty sure I'm the only one showing how well (or as in this week how poorly) I'm doing every week.

So moving right along!

Defense Analyzer

The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

DEFENSE ANALYSIS
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum

Image

DEFENSE PERFORMANCE
On the left are defenses and the number of points scored each week in my league. On the right are the points given to defenses by a particular team.

Image

Kansas City note: Every eyar, there's some poor team that it is better to start against than starting the best of defenses (although this year CHI is going to be hard to beat on that scale). This year, it may be KC. KC has failed to yield a below average game all year. Look at your defense'ss bye week, see who KC is playing that week and you may want to pick that team up. Unfortunately both KC and PHI are on bye's this week.

Final Rankings:
1) CHI vs. DET - Chicago has posted 5/5 above average games with 4 breakout games of which 3 have been over 20 points. Start every week.
2) MIN vs. ARI - MIN Has 3/6 breakout weeks playing an ARI team that has given 3 weeks in a row of bad outings. Despite this past week's 2 pointer, I still think MIN is a defense worth starting and things seem to be falling apart in ARI. In particular if Kolb is out. Second stringers are usually very generous.
3) TB vs. NO- A bit odd putting this up here but that's what the stats say. TB now has had 4/5 above average and 3 breakout weeks playing a NO team that has given 2/5 above average and one beakout week. Not as good a matchup as last week's and TB is no stud of a defense. But still showing up pretty well. They've played the NYG and got 8 points and I think NO maybe slightly easier to play than the giants. Raising enthusiasm slightly. CAVEAT: TB is a terrible passing defense and a very good rushing defense while NO is a very good passing offense with a so-so rushing offense. The stars align well for Brees et al.
4) ARI vs. MIN - ARI has had 3/6 above average games and 2 breakout games. MIN has only given out 1/6 above average games and 1 breakout game. Lowered enthusiasm for this one but ARI has one of the highest sack/turnover ratios in the game
5) PIT vs. CIN - No breakout games and only 2 above average games for PIT so far this year but CIN has risen quickly to being one of the most fun teams to play against. They have given out 4/6 above average games and 3/6 breakout games. PIT doesn't get a lot of takeaways but CIN is the most favorable matchup this week. Raised enthusiasm.
6) CAR vs. DAL - DAL is now the second most fun team to play against giving out 4/5 above average games and 3/5 breakout games. They are giving more points out than ATL, DEN, BAL and HOU are getting as defenses. CAR has had 3/5 above average games and 2/5 breakout games so I think it's possible they'll have a break out vs. DAL.
7) CLE vs. IND - CLE was a flyer last week but now has 2/5 breakout games and another 2 which were close. They play IND who has given 2/5 breakout games as well. CLE may be overranked because of week 1 vs. PHI but showed up again last week vs. CIN. However, they have one of the highest turnover/sacks ratios for the week.
8) NE vs. NYJ - NE has had 3/6 above average games with 2 breakouts playing a NYJ team that has given 3/6 above average weeks and one breakout. Kept in the top 10. I'm also betting Belichek is reaming them out for losing to SEA.
9) BAL vs. HOU - BAL has 5/6 above average games and 4/6 breakout weeks but playing a HOU team that has only given 2 above average games and no breakout weeks. Could be tough to produce a breakout with injuries to their defense as well this week. However, it's hard to drop BAL from the top 10 given that they've been steady producers of points all year.
10) HOU vs. BAL - HOU has had 4/6 above average games with 2 breakout games playing a BAL team that has only given 1/6 good games. A riskier play this week but as with BAL, hard to pull from the top 10 given their steady production all year.

Risky Play:
NYG vs. WAS - Only 2 breakout games for the giants and WAS has only given up 2 breakout games. The Giants just got 19 points off of SF but I kept this off top 10. Still, worth noting it was top 10 by the sacks/turnovers ratio though and higher than BAL or HOU is ranked by that marker. I'm betting it shows up on a lot of other sites. While a huge performance vs. SF this past week, really, the giants haven't been beating the daylights out on defense this year yet.

BUF vs. TEN - BUF has had 3/6 above average with 2/6 breakout weeks playing a TEN team that has given 3/6 breakout weeks. This one shows up based on the ratio of above average games and is statistically the same as a HOU vs. BAL or BAL vs. HOU. If you're really hurting to find a defense this week, I'd consider this one. HOwever, I couldn't find a matchup I would drop to put in its place.

NYJ vs. NE: NYJ have had 4/6 above average and 3/6 breakout games but playing a NE team that has yet to yield an above average week. As with SF vs. NYG last week, I just couldn't put the jets into the top 10 this week because of tehir matchup.

SF vs. SEA - ALthough sacks/turnovers ratio is higher than BUF and HOU, SF has not been producing well as a defense this year with only 2/6 above average/ breakoout games playing a sea team that has given 3/6 above average with 2 breakout games. Of course, SEA is no NYG and are a high quality defense. Thus I would still at least consider a start here.

SEA vs. SF - SEA had had 3/6 breakout games playing a SF team that has given out 3/6 above average games. Normally this would make a top 10 but the sacks/turnover ratio here is on the low end of the metric. I'm not sure how to interpret it but as with SF, if you're hungry, I think SEA could warrant a start.

Avoid?
STL vs. GB - STL has 3/6 breakout games and GB has only given 2/6 above average games but no matter what the stats say, I just have a really bad feeling about this one. I think Rodgers is going to be pretty damn hard to stop. STL is technically the toughest passing defense but HOU was supposed to be until Rodgers lit them up. Lowering enthusiasm.

DAL vs. CAR - DAL has only had 1/5 breakout games but thye play a CAR team that has given 3/5 breakout games. DAL has an impressive pass and rush defense but not producing a lot of turnovers or sacks. This one depends on good or bad Cam showing up.

Hoping for a better week than last weeks. Last week also had the fewest breakout weeks since the year began and the average score was lower than usual. Still, feel badly that the analyzer performed so terribly although reassuring that few others were better. Good luck!
Last edited by prince_45243 on Tue Oct 16, 2012 11:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 10:40 am

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, STL is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are 6th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 9.8 points per game. However, they've had the 3rd easiest schedule so far this year given the opponents they have faced.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense but they are ranked 7th by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 7.1 points per game and have had a medium toughness of schedule.

Image

PASSING COMMENTS
HOU fell quite a bit from last week being ranked 8th down to 20th after Rodgers lit them up last week. I was surprised frankly but I guess it's worht noting that they went from the 19th toughest all the way to 11th toughest schedule with just that one game.

WAS was very generous to Ponder last week despite his early struggles which keeps them near the bottom and Russel Wlson kept NE towards the bottom of the passing defense again this week.

TB is ranked 31st by the NFL as a defense but they are only 11th by my ranking. Through five games they have yiedled only 4 passing TDs and have 8 picks.
Similarly, BAL is ranked 22nd by teh NFL in passing defense but have also only yielded 4 passing TDs through 6 games and have 7 picks. DAL is ranked number one on passing defense but worth noting that they've yielded 6 passing TDs and no picks in their 5 games thus far. CHI is not viewed well by the NFL with a 14th passing rating but they've given opposing passers only 5 TDs in 5 games and have had a monstrous 13 interceptions! (along with 18 sacks).

IND is way over-rated by the NFL as 3rd as they ahave yielded 10 passing TDs in only 5 games with only 2 picks. SD was never a very good passing defense and has now fallen to 28th (just above TEN!!) and have yielded 14 passing TDs in only 6 games. That's averageing more than 2 passing TDs per game.

RUSHING COMMENTS:
Well, GB didn't run it against HOU, they remain my toughest rushing defense and thyey have not yielded a rushing TD in 6 games. The rushing rankings actually look fairly close to the actual NFL rankings but I think it's worht noting that while TB is ranked 10th by me, 4th by the NFL, they are the only to p10 rushing defense that has had a top 10 (actually the toughest) rushing schedule to face facing Cam Newton, Ahmad Bradshaw, DAL, RGIII/Morris and Jamaal Charles. Yet they have yielded only 5 rushing TDs in 5 games and 75 yards per game. This week, they get a strength/wkness matchup as NO is the nubmer 1 passing offense (TB is ranked 32nd by NFL in passing defense) and number 30th on rushing offnense vs TB ranked 4th in rushing defense. Look for Brees to air it out bigtime.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby chcbb » Tue Oct 16, 2012 12:45 pm

Should I drop Arizona and pickup Minnesota this week? Seems like they (Min) have a better chance of a breakout game.

Arizon has been better up to this point, but looking at the next 4 games after this week:
Arizona : SF, @GB, Bye, @Atl
Minn : TB, @Sea, Det, Bye

Minnesota might have the edge there too... of course I can just go week to week on matchups.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 16, 2012 1:04 pm

chcbb wrote:Should I drop Arizona and pickup Minnesota this week? Seems like they (Min) have a better chance of a breakout game.

Arizon has been better up to this point, but looking at the next 4 games after this week:
Arizona : SF, @GB, Bye, @Atl
Minn : TB, @Sea, Det, Bye

Minnesota might have the edge there too... of course I can just go week to week on matchups.


The future does look better for MIN although I'd argue that only DET is a 'great' matchup. It is worth noting that ARI is the 5th highest scoring defense this year in my league and probably yours and has 5 out of 6 with about average to better games. In a way it's a little sneaky dropping ARI now as they may struggle vs. MIN, SF, GB, BYE and then ATL in the next four weeks. Or it could /facepalm if they blow up and stay hot through the year. Looking at their season though, they had break out games vs. PHI and MIA and average games vs. SEA, NE, STL and BUF. I'm guessing they'll struggle vs. MIN, SF, GB and ATL coming up. Still, they actually do have a decent shot at a breakout this week (I left them in my top 10 too!).
But to answer your quest, yes, I think I would swap out now for MIN and keep checking the waiver wire. In week 8, btw, KC plays OAK who has JAC this week. OAK has been horrible as a defense all year but did get 8 points off of a quality ATL team this past week. JAC has been very generous this year with 3/5 above average and 2 breakout games. If OAK does well this week, I think a safe bet to pick them up for KC next week and I'm betting no one has OAK in your league yet. For week 9, SD, again I bet no one has SD picked up.

Good luck,
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby sirsydney » Wed Oct 17, 2012 1:35 pm

Currently have PIT, but NE is available, and NE plays St. Louis in week 8. Would you hold PIT for the long run? They're playoff schedule is SD, @DAL, CIN?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 17, 2012 2:30 pm

First off,NE has a bye week in week 9 which means you can't really keep NE the whole year anyway. PIT has already had their bye.
NE has performed better than PIT so far this year with 3/6 above average and 2 break outs vs. PIT with only 2/5 above average and no break outs.

The numbers in parentheses are the sacks/turnovers 'score' for each team.

PIT (4.6) in the final weeks has
SD (7), DAL (6.2) and CIN (7.2)
Totals 11.6, 10.8, 11.8

While NE (7) has
HOU (3.3), SF (5) and JAC (5.4)
Totals 10.3, 12, 12.4

It is true that you are better off week 14 playing PIT vs. SD than NE vs. HOU but then NE, despite having slightly worse matchups, is performing better and would be a better matchup in weeks 15 and 16.

PIT also gets KC (8.6) in week 10 but has the misfortune of having WASH (4.8), NYG (4.2) in 8 and 9 and BAL(4.6) in 11 and 13 none of which are good matchups. They do have CLE(5.8) in week 12 which is a good matchup but in weeks 8-13, really only one good matchup one midling and a lot of tougher matchups.

NE has STL(5) in 8, a bye week in 9, but then has a nice long run of teams to face including BUF (5.5), IND (5.4), NYJ (4.8) and MIA(5.83) None are whirlbeater offenses and only the jets are technically a bad matchup. But weeks 8-13 instead of 4 opponents with a score of less than 5 as PIT has, NE has one opponent with a score of less than 5.

So to summarize, PIT has a worse schedule and is not performing as well as NE. The only caveat is that NE has a bye coming up and has HOU in the first week of your playoffs. Unless you have a good reason to believe that PIT hasn't shown their best stuff so far this year facing DEN, NYJ, OAK, PHI and TEN, I think it's a safe bet going to NE.

In week 9 (NE's bye), KC plays SD which I'm betting no one in your league has picked up as a defense and in week 14 they play CLE which may be gone in your league but if you get close to week 14 and they're available, they have a great week 14 matchup in KC.

Much of this is predicated on the sacks/turnover metric which is a good but not perfect indicator of advantage. Prior results are not a guarantee of future performance :)

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 9:05 am

Image

NFL which soundly beat the analyzer last week only has 3 of the same picks as the Analyzer this week. Expanding out to the others that had done better, most noticeable is that NYG, SF and GB make 4 of the five other lists. The giants play WAS and were a top 10 on the sacks/to metric. I dropped it on the consistency and performance trends but again 4 others like it.

SF has also only had 2 breakout games and SEA has only given out two, it's on the same level as the giants pick for me.

GB has only had one break out game and plays a STL team that has only given one breakout game. Still those 3 were picked by four of the other 5 ranking systems.

BUF is picked by 2 of the systems playing TEN. I like that one too although I'm not sure I would have chosen one of these over the top 10. BUF does have 3/6 above average games though and TEN has given 2/6 breakouts.

DAL playing CAR showed up in 2 different rankings. Also one of my riskier plays as CAR has given out 3/5 breakout games but DAL has only had one good week on defense so far this year. STL, CIN and IND all got a single vote out of 5 other ranking systems and all of those votes came from NFL.com's projections (which, again, kicked butt last week).

Of my picks, TB did not show up on anyone else's list and CAR and ARI only showed on one other list. TB vs. NO is probably a bit scary of a pick. TB has had 4/5 above average games playing some very good offenses. Perhaps getting too cute on my part though. CAR plays DAL who has given the second most points to defenses all year. And ARI has had only one bad game all year but is playing a MIN team that has only given out one good game all year. With Kolb injured, perhaps this one shouldn't have made my top 10.

CHI, MIN, NE and PIT all showed up on at least 4 of the other 5 sites. HOU only showed up on 3 of the other 5, was lower on my sacks/to metric and I rescued it primarily for having 4/6 above average games this year although playing a 3rd worst matchup in BAL.
And BAL only showed up on 2/5 other teams, BAL having had only one truly bad game but playing a HOU team that has given 2/5 above average games but no break out games this year and now sans ray lewis.

So if you're still looking the waiver wire hopefully this will provide more information. Good luck!


CHI only shows
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Oct 18, 2012 1:52 pm

And SEA was mentioned on all 5 other lists but not the analyzer. Sorry for missing that obvious one!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby sirsydney » Sun Oct 21, 2012 7:27 pm

prince_45243 wrote:First off,NE has a bye week in week 9 which means you can't really keep NE the whole year anyway. PIT has already had their bye.
NE has performed better than PIT so far this year with 3/6 above average and 2 break outs vs. PIT with only 2/5 above average and no break outs.

The numbers in parentheses are the sacks/turnovers 'score' for each team.

So to summarize, PIT has a worse schedule and is not performing as well as NE. The only caveat is that NE has a bye coming up and has HOU in the first week of your playoffs. Unless you have a good reason to believe that PIT hasn't shown their best stuff so far this year facing DEN, NYJ, OAK, PHI and TEN, I think it's a safe bet going to NE.

Good luck!


I would be remiss, if I didn't say "Thank You"

I picked up NE and they got me 35.2 points, and I won by 35 points. I'm sure I would have still won with Pittsburgh, but I don't have to sweat it out. Very nice. I might even have the highest scoring DST in the league this week.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 7

Postby solid90 » Mon Oct 22, 2012 4:04 pm

Hi Prince,

Just wanted to say thanks for all your work on the analyzer.
It is a great tool and I always reference it when I am stuck looking for a defense.

Great work!
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