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Antonio Brown is Overrated

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Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby joejlitz » Thu Oct 18, 2012 6:08 pm

I'm really disappointed with Brown's production this year, given the expectations. In my PPR league, he ranks #35 behind such talents as Brian Hartline, Andrew Hawkins (bonus points if you're in a redraft and know what team he plays for), and Danny Amendola.

In my standard scoring league, he ranks #46! And he is behind Kevin Ogletree (when was the last time he was relevant?), Jeremy Kerley, and Brandon Gibson.

Granted, the bye weeks have played a bit of a factor and I'm not going to do the entire analysis on how that affects his current ranking, but the bottom line is that he has scored only 1 TD all year and has been an overall disappointment for those of us who thought he would make a major leap this year into the top-20.
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby Sex Panther » Fri Oct 19, 2012 9:34 am

In standard formats, yeah, I would be dissapointed. But standard is a whole different animal when it comes to fantasy football.

In PPR though, I disagree with your assessment.

Would more TD be nice? Of course they would. However, he's not alone in the 1 recpetion TD club... Harvin (granted, he has a rushing score & a return score), Jennings (been hurt, but higher ADP), Nicks (same deal as Jennings), Lloyd, DJax, and (most suprisingly) Megatron all are part of this dubious group.

Even with the bye he's 20th in targets amongst WR & 20th in receptions.

He's 10th in targets per game amongst WR (9.8)

He's 12th in catches per game amongst WR (5.8)

He's 25th in yards per game amongst WR (69.2)

He's 27th in PPG in full PPR formats amongst WR (13.8)

He's had 1 game that "hurt" owners - a 4/20 game last week - 6.0 full PPR points last week (but he drew a PI in the endzone and was targeted 10 times).

Other than last week's clunker - 11.4, 14.9, 21.7, 15.6

His bye is out of the way.

He leads the Steelers in targets (by a wide margin) with 49, Wallace and Miller each have 34.

He has yet to have a real big game. Hasn't gone over 100 yards & hasn't had a catch over 27 yards.

He has had 3 games with 7 receptions already however.

The Steelers can't really run the ball.

Ben is a phenominal QB, and Brown is his favorite target.

IMO he is a wonderful "buy low" guy & much better days are ahead for AntMan.
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby joejlitz » Sat Oct 20, 2012 6:05 am

The only problem I have with your argument, Sexy, is that in the end it isn't about targets or catches. It is about fantasy points. Our Frozen Tundra League is full PPR and he comes in at 35, not 27, so I'm not real sure what the scoring discrepancies might be.

I'm not giving up on the guy. However, after watching him get in the end zone only 2 times last year (!) and watching the first five games this year, I get a bad feeling about his prospects for the remainder of the season. He appears to be ordinary - not extraordinary. And that is why I feel a bit down on the guy.

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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby Sex Panther » Sat Oct 20, 2012 7:14 am

joejlitz wrote:The only problem I have with your argument, Sexy, is that in the end it isn't about targets or catches. It is about fantasy points. Our Frozen Tundra League is full PPR and he comes in at 35, not 27, so I'm not real sure what the scoring discrepancies might be.

I'm not giving up on the guy. However, after watching him get in the end zone only 2 times last year (!) and watching the first five games this year, I get a bad feeling about his prospects for the remainder of the season. He appears to be ordinary - not extraordinary. And that is why I feel a bit down on the guy.

** If you are in my Tundra Dynasty League this is not a buy-low opportunity! :-L :-D :-b


Probably total points, not PPG average. Bye weeks skew things a bit
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby joejlitz » Sun Oct 21, 2012 6:57 pm

Ok AB. 20 minutes to game time. Prove me wrong!
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby big.d57 » Sun Oct 21, 2012 8:28 pm

joejlitz wrote:Ok AB. 20 minutes to game time. Prove me wrong!


This.

I have him in my standard league, pretty disappointed that he hasn't found the end zone except for his fumble recovery.
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby stomperrob » Mon Oct 22, 2012 12:42 pm

Wallace keeps dropping those easy catches and Brown is gonna see an increased workload.Their O-line is decimated with injuries, their run game is a mess (although last night showed a marked improvement), so opponents can key on the passing game.
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby Sex Panther » Mon Oct 22, 2012 2:33 pm

Pretty solid last night in PPR formats - 17.9 full PPR points, 13 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 96 yards
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby Cowboys 4 life » Mon Oct 22, 2012 11:54 pm

joejlitz wrote:** If you are in my Tundra Dynasty League this is a buy-low opportunity! :-L :-D :-b



What you want for him. Ill take a huge gamble on him.
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Re: Antonio Brown is Overrated

Postby joejlitz » Tue Oct 23, 2012 5:51 am

Cowboys 4 life wrote:
joejlitz wrote:** If you are in my Tundra Dynasty League this is a buy-low opportunity! :-L :-D :-b



What you want for him. Ill take a huge gamble on him.

Ha! I said NOT a buy low opportunity! :-b

Still, I'd wonder if the youth (+) and promise (+) of Brown vs. the performance (+) and age (-) of White is a fair trade but, I doubt I'd have the guts to pull the trigger :-o
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