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Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 2:52 pm

POST MORTEM
Last weeks post: viewtopic.php?t=526163
1) CHI-15
2) MIN - 18
3) TB - -2
4) ARI - 8
5) PIT - 3
6) CAR - 3
7) CLE - 6
8) NE - 16
9) BAL - -2
10) HOU - 20

Median Score was 6. 6/10 were above average, 3 break out games

NFL had CLE-6, SEA - 8, BAL -2, PIT-3, NYG-11, STL-2, SF-11, CHI-15, CIN-7, IND-4 or 6/3 same as Analyzer
KFFL had MIN-18, NYG-11, CHI-15, CLE-6, SEA-8, PIT03, NE-16, BUF-4, GB-6, CAR-3 or 7/4 better than Analyzer. Had been worse two weeks prior.
Michaels Blog: GB-6, SF-11, SEA-8, HOU,20, CHI-15, NE-16, NYG-11, MIN,18, PIT-3, DAL-7 or 9/6 much better than Analyzer. Last week as good as Analyzer
FFtoolbox: SF-11, GB-6, CHI-15, BAL-2, HOU-20, NYG-11, NE-16, SEA-8, MIN-18, BUF-4 or 8/6 much better than analyzer. Last week as good as analyzer
Yahoo: CHI-15, MIN-18, GB-6, SF-11, NE-16, SEA-8, ARI-8, DAL-7, PIT-3, HOU-20 or 9/5 also much better than Analyzer although posted late.

Analyzer continued to out perform other systems but these particular appear to be consistently as good as or better than the analyzer. In looking at the common calls, the giants and SF were picked by 4 other systems. GB was as well and only produced an average game. BUF, DAL, STl, CIN and IN were picked by 2 or fewer other systems and all of those produced below average games. For the Analyzer, ARI, CAR and TB were picked by 2 or fewer other systems of which only ARI had a slightly above average game. CLE and BAL were chosed by 2 other systems and had poor showings. HOU was picked by 3 of the other 5 systems and had a great game. PIT, NE, MIN and CHI were all picked by 4 or more other systems and only PIT had a poor game.

Thus, if you take these 6 systems of picking games, it appears that a consensus between them has a high probability of a good game and lack of consensus has a low probability of a good game.

We'll keep this in mind going forward:
DEFENSE ANALYZER

The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

DEFENSE ANALYSIS
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum

Image

DEFENSE PERFORMANCE
On the left are defenses and the number of points scored each week in my league. On the right are the points given to defenses by a particular team.

Image

Kansas City note: Every year, there's some poor team that it is better to start against than starting the best of defenses (although this year CHI is going to be hard to beat on that scale). This year, it may be KC. KC has failed to yield a below average game all year. Look at your defense's bye week, see who KC is playing that week and you may want to pick that team up. Unfortunately both KC and PHI are on bye's this week.

Final Ranknigs
1) CHI v. CAR - Stud, start every week.
2) ATL v. PHI - ATL has 5/6 above average games with 4 breakouts playing a PHI team that has given 5/6 above average games with 3 breakouts.
3) SF v. ARI - SF has had 3 out of their last 4 with breakout weeks playing an ARI team that has given 4 straight breakout weeks.
4) SEA v. DET - SEA has had 4/7 above average with 3 breakout weeks playing a DET team that has 4/6 breaktout weeks given up. DET is the second best team to play against as a defense.
5) OAK v. KC - Whie OAK is one of the worst defenses in the league with only one above average game, they are playign a KC team that has given 6/6 above average games and 4 break out games. This will be the ultimate test of the KC rule. At present, playing the defense playing KC or DET would average you more points than HOU as a defense. But if even lowly KC can have a break out game vs. KC that would seal it for me.
6) NYJ v. MIA - NYJ have 4/7 above average games with 3 breakouts playing a MIA team that has given 3/6 above average all breakouts. This is about the same level as the MIA NYJ game but I gave the nod here as the jets have played well against lesser teams like BUF, MIA and IND and even got an 8 from HOU.
7) MIN vs. TB - MIN has been hot with 4 of the last 5 games being break out games but playing a TB team that has only given 2/7 breakout games. It will be interesting to see if MIN can produce here and the sacks/turnover is one of the lower end in the spectrum. They are here because they seem too hot to sit at this point.
8) NE v. STL - NE has had 4/7 above average with 3 breakouts playing a STL team that has only given 2/7 above average games. While a solid defense, STL has not been as generous as last year.
9) NYG v. DAL - The giants have 3/7 breakout games with dal giving 3/6 break out games.
10) GB vs. JAC - GB hasn't been on fire as a defense this year with only 3/7 above average games and only one break out. JAC has given 3/6 above average games with 2 breakouts. This isn't a terrific pick but makes the top 10 in the sacks/turnovers metric and frankly, GB has been a dominating offense for several weeks now and JAC has given generous points to HOU, CHI and CIN.

Riskier Plays
ARI v. SF - ARI hasn'thad a break out week in a month but has 3/7 above average games as a defense and playing a SF team that has given out 4/7 above average games wtih 2 breakout weeks. Not a blockbuster but the to/s ratio looks good. But ARI has gotten cold as a defense and that has me worried vs. SF.

MIA vs. NYJ - MIA has only had 2/6 above average games as a defense playing an inconsistent jets team that has given 4/7 above average games with 2 breakouts. MIA is solid against the run and decent against the pass playing a jets team that favors the rush. Should be interesting to see if more turnovers pop up because of this and the sacks/turnovers metric is more favorable than the jets vs. MIA. Still, the jets have been more consistent as a defense than MIA has.

CLE vs. SD - CLE has been inconsistent as a defense with only 2/6 above average games (both breakouts) playing a SD team that has also been inconsistent giving only 3/6 above average games (2 breakouts). I'd bet that outside of the statistics, SD will have a good day against a CLE team that is 27th vs. the pass and 22nd vs. the rush and hopefully Rivers won't have 5 turnovers again. I'm betting this is a riskier play but the sacks/turnover is 3rd highest on the metric but I just didn't see it making the top 10.

DEN vs. NO - DEN was inspired vs. SD and has had 3/6 above average games, all breakouts but playing a NO team that is one of the worst matchups to play against with 2/6 above avearge and only one break out game. Approach with caution.

Caution:
PIT has been making a lot of the top 10 defense lists throughout the experts polls but I'd caution that they've onlyhad 2 out of 6 above average games and zero breakouts playing a WAS team that has given 2/7 above average games with 2 break outs. They do not appear to be the once-studly defense of olde.

Last week was much improved over the week before although I think the comparison with other ranking systems will improve on the picks.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 23, 2012 3:27 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 16th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 10.5 points per game and have now faced the 7th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 5th by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 6.9 points per game and have had a medium toughness of schedule.

Image

PASSING
Well STL finally played someone a little tougher with GB and their ranking fell pricipitously. As I had said for weeks, their 'toughness' of schedule was the third easiest. CHI on the other hand is ranked only 16th in passing defense among the NFL but truly that's absurd given that they have allowed only 6 passing TDs and have 14 picks in only 6 games. No other team in the league has more INTs or has allowed fewer passing TDs and have done so against Luck, Rodgers, Romo, and now Stafford.

BAL is also underrated by the NFL ranking 23rd because they allow 257 yards per game but they also have only allowed 6 TDs in 7 games and have 7 picks facing Dalton, Vick, Brady, Romo and Schaub.

Meanwhile, PIT is a bit overrated. They do allow only 184 ypg but they have given up 10 passing TDs and only 3 picks in 6 games. HOU is probably not getting the credit they deserve in my ranking because of Rodgers lighting them up for 6TDs in week 6. If you remove that one, they have allowed only 7 TDs in 6 games with 9 picks and would otherwise be a top 10 defense. But Rodgers day really shot them down that list.

WAS continues to be fun to pass against allowing 16 tds in only 7 games and averaging 328 yards per game given up. Aye caramba! Of course, they've had the toughest passing schedule so far this year too facing brees, dalton, matty ice, ponder, eli and big ben.

The Giants are ranked only 21st in the league in passing defense but have yielded only 10 passing tds in 7 games along with 12 picks. Awfully good in my book.

RUSHING
HOU remains the only team not to allow a rushing TD all year. They have yielded only 83 ypg. SD is a bit of a shocker here in that they've allowed only 2 TDs this year on the ground and only 71 ypg. But they have had the 3rd easiest schedule so far this year. TB slipped down farther on the rankings but I think deserves a top 10 spot. They are ranked 3rd by the NFL but they have yielded 5 TDs in 6 games making them an easier play. It's worth noting though that they have faced Cam and RGIII and Jamaal and Adrian Peterson this year.

IND is perenially fun to run against and again this year allowing 8 rushing TDs in 6 games and 141 ypg on the ground despite facing an easy rushing schedule.

While PIT is no beast in the air, they have been strong on the ground allowing only 4 TDs in 6 games and only 92 ypg but have done so facing a weak rushign schedule from DEN, NYJ, OAK, PHI, TEN and CIN.

Good luck folks!

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby yetiboy » Tue Oct 23, 2012 10:42 pm

Odd you don't get much response to these posts, when it's such a huge help. Thanks, you're a prince.

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby big.d57 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:03 am

Thanks Prince, this is some good stuff. I'm in a league that plays two defenses where I have Arizona and SF...
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby sundragon123 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:54 am

Hey Prince... love the analyzer.. been using it for years. have a question though..

this week which one:
Seattle Def, Minn def, Giants def?

also with all this info have you made a "rest of the way" defense ranking?

thanks

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby Txbred » Wed Oct 24, 2012 10:13 am

Awesome post. Need a little help and didnt see a whole lot mentioned about the following........my choices are oak, kc, sd, cle, mia, det. Having a tough time deciding. Bal got me neg poi.ts last week so anything positive is a plus. Enjoy hearing your opinion. Thanks in advance
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby FirstCoast » Wed Oct 24, 2012 2:45 pm

I usually stick with SEA barring a glaring mismatch. Only team I took them out for was NE. They've been solid, 5th in ESPN standard scoring. I would grab some of the other defenses you mention but that would require trading.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:26 pm

yetiboy wrote:Odd you don't get much response to these posts, when it's such a huge help. Thanks, you're a prince.

yeti

Heh, now you've done it!

big.d57 wrote:Thanks Prince, this is some good stuff. I'm in a league that plays two defenses where I have Arizona and SF...


Thanks Prince, this is some good stuff. I'm in a league that plays two defenses where I have Arizona and SF...


Two defenses! There's only 32 total defenses but yes ARI/SF should be a good combo going through the year. Wow, how many teams in your league?

Hey Prince... love the analyzer.. been using it for years. have a question though..

this week which one:
Seattle Def, Minn def, Giants def?

also with all this info have you made a "rest of the way" defense ranking?

thanks

sunny-d


I do like SEA vs. DET. SEA has held up very well vs. DAL, GB, CAR and most recently an 8 vs. SF. DET has been very generous to all but SF and PHI. But even TEN, STL and the Bengals have had solid defensive outings vs. SEA. Second best is MIN who has been very hot as a defense with 4 out of the last 5 being break out games. Only problem is that they face a TB team that has been very stingy to opponents. The Giants have DAL who up until last week was one of the nicest teams to be matched up with. But, the last two weeks have been without break out games and after Romo's collapse a few weeks ago, I think they've tightened up. Still, it makes my top 10 as a solid defense looking to score big.

I haven't made a rest of the way defense ranking yet but will get a playoff and next 3 at some point. Right now, my real life is very busy so just doing this on lunch breaks and such :)

Awesome post. Need a little help and didnt see a whole lot mentioned about the following........my choices are oak, kc, sd, cle, mia, det. Having a tough time deciding. Bal got me neg poi.ts last week so anything positive is a plus. Enjoy hearing your opinion. Thanks in advance


Yes, I accidentally clipped SD from the list but they are awfully inconsistent as a defense and CLE has been cold as an opponent for a month. FF is still a game of chance and it's a shame about BAL last week. Of those defenses though, I'd probably take a chance on OAK on the KC factor. While the streak may end, they've given 9+ points to every team they've faced this year although I think they've had a very rough schedule with ATl, BUF, NO, SD, BAL and TB. Still, it's hard to argue with the stats on this. KC is not performing at a very high level. But, as I said in my post above, this week is the truest test in that OAK has not had a single break out game this year.

If you're squeamish about OAK and I don't blame you, MIA vs. NYJ would be my next favorite of that group. MIA is very tough on the rush and if you look at the breakout games that NYJ have given, they have given 27 to SF (6), and 18 to NE (5) and 8 points to HOU (1) and PIT (12). The number in parenthesis being how tough they are vs. the rush. When Greene can't going, they have to go to the air. My only cautionary note is that in week 3 vs. MIA, they only gave them 6 points which is why they didn't make my top 10. If it weren't for that, they probably would have made top 10 this week.

I don't trust CLE as a defense yet but they do have one of the most favorable sack/turnover ratios for the week. KC has had 2 break out games but their sacks/turnover ratio is abysmal this week. DET has had 2 above average games but no breakouts and CHI will likely abuse them mightily.

And thanks to everyone for the support of the column. I am incredibly busy in my real life these two weeks so may not respond as quickly but I hope to have the comparison top 10s up by tomorrow night.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 24, 2012 7:34 pm

Image

In the past, the consensus of many has predicted a better showing than those without. Also NFL.com has been dominating the past two weeks with outstanding projections for breakout performances. I couldn't find Michael's blog for this week so I put Bleacher back into the mix.

SF and GB were chosen by all 6 as a top 10 pick. Surprisingly, CHI didn't make KFFL's pick but along with ATL, SEA, NYJ and NYG got 5 picks.

Less secure are MIN, NE, MIA and my "versus KC" bet of OAK.
And even less secure were ARI, IND, DAL, KC, SD, PIT and DET as defensive picks.
NFL added MIA, IND and DAL although were the only ones to call IND and DAL. Still, they have been performing better than the analyzer for the past several weeks so hard to ignore. They didn't include MIN, ATL and NE which were picked by many other systems.

So the OAK start is a bit of a gambit now as it probably should be. But if OAK produces this week, I think I'd feel pretty safe starting whatever team is playing KC for most weeks hereafter unless the stats dramatically change.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 12:17 pm

DEFENSE OUTLOOK Weeks 9-11
Image

Using the sacks/turnover metric that I've been using so far, I generated the above chart for favorable defenses for weeks 9-11. Obviously good defenses with a bye week will show up lower as they will have zero chance of scoring for that week.

DEN is a bit of a surprise here as a midling level defense but they have several favorable matchups upcoming with CIN, CAR and SD. MIA is also a nice defense to have as they face IND, TEN and BUF in weeks 9-11. SD and NO both look good because of their week 9 matchups vs. KC and PHI but looking harder, their subsequent games don't look particularly favorable.
SF has done fair as a defense but are about to hit BYE, STL, and CHI for weeks 9-11 and have the second worst outlook coming up. SEA and MIN both have bye weeks to contend with in week 11 although their individual matchups in weeks 9 and 10 don't look completely awful.

PLAYOFF DEFENSES Weeks 14-16

Image

I have SF but looking ahead, they face MIA, NE and SEA. NE is second worst team to face as a defense and MIA has given a few breakouts but not that many great weeks.

CLE?! Yes, they face KC, WAS and DEN in the final 3 weeks, have done fairly well in sacks/turnovers. Facing KC in the first week of the playoffs helps a lot if the trend continues on and WAS isn't a bad matchup although DEN maybe.
SF owners will face MIA, NE and SEA in the final 3 weeks, and while SEA has given about half their games as above average, they aren't giving up a ton of sacks and turnovers. Similarly BAL will face RGIII, Peyton and then Eli to close out the season. Tricky! PIT's lineup does include CIN but TB and WAS have been very stingy to defenses this year.
WAS has a tougher week 14 matchup vs. BAL but close out with CLE and PHI. Depends on your league and how well the s/to metric holds up. In years past it was the greatest predictor of defensive TDs and overall points but this year, it hasn't held up as well as past years. Hopefully the law of averages will catch it up.
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