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Defense Analyzer - Week 8

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby big.d57 » Thu Oct 25, 2012 5:02 pm

Dang looks like I may need to make some add/drops on D/ST's in the upcoming weeks. Arizona and SF might not be as hot as I thought.
Two defenses! There's only 32 total defenses but yes ARI/SF should be a good combo going through the year. Wow, how many teams in your league?


It's a 6 team league so about 12 or so defenses are owned since they can rack up major fantasy points.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 10:48 am

Weeks 12 and 13 for ARI look favorable with STL and NYJ.

Also, I should give the caveat that SF looks worse than I think they actually are as a defense. They started off wtih GB, DET, MIN and they've also faced SEA and ARI this year and all but DET have winning records. They've also faced BUF and the NYJ. While I think they are becoming a matchup play for this year, I think the sacks/turnover metric may not relate as closely as the actual production weekly table does for them.

ARI has 8 INTs and 22 sacks in 7 games and has had plenty of fumble recoveries over that time. They may not always win games or keep scores down but they've really only had one bad game. The outlooks was only how well they look in comparison to other teams on chances of breakouts but really, I think those two are awfully good defenses to keep! Please don't let a bunch of statistics interfere with common sense either :)

Happy to drill the numbers on any waiver wire picks you have and I still think starting just about any team vs KC could be as good as either of those with good matchups.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby zjk924 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 4:11 pm

Prince,

I've got both Denver D and Redskins D, and I'm not 100% sure where to go. Ostensibly yes, Denver defense is better, but I feel like Saints offense is really firing on all cylinders now, whereas the Steelers are rather weak these days. Thoughts?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 6:41 pm

Working on this one for about an hour now. I think I need help answering yours. Others should feel free to help out on this one.

But I'll go through my usual algorithm. DEN and WAS are both path of least resistance to passing and face Brees and Roethlisberger which are 1st and 6th on passing offensive power. Pretty much a wash there. Both NO and PIT don't have much of a supporting rushing cast and DEN and WAS are both okay against the rush anyway so that's also a wash.
NO has given up more picks (7 in 6 games) with 12 sacks while PIT has only given up 3 picks and 13 sacks. Tipping slightly to DEN there.
DEN has 6 picks and 18 sacks; WAS has 10 picks (in 7 games) and 13 sacks. From a value standpoint, that tips to WAS slightly.

Points against. NO is 3rd with 29 points per game; pit is 16th with 23 ppg; WAS allows 29 ppg (28th in the league) and DEN allows 23 ppg (17t in the league). Pretty much a wash from the stats although tips slightly to DEN as a tougher defense. (This is getting tough!)

DEN plays at home on primetime 8:20 while WAS plays at PIT at 1PM, both are outdoor games. PIT weather shows rain and 50s, DEN weather shows partly cloudy with temps in the 50s. Rain helps a defense. Home helps a defense. WAS gets the rain but DEN gets the homefield.

DEN ranks higher than WAS on sacks/to metric and DEN ranks higher on ProFootball, KFFL (by one rank) and FFToolbox while WAS ranks higher on nfl.com.

I guess the gut check on that didn't sit right with me though so I can't seem to make a call here and think I shouldn't. Basically, I've given you all the facts I can and don't see a clear winner. You may be better off flipping a coin, and if the result doesn't 'feel right', going with the other one. But don't beat yourself up on this one, I can't think of a way of differentiating those two meaningfully. However, there's usually someone out there willing to make a definitive pick for you :). Neither look especially hopeful this week to perform well as a defense. Is there anything on the ww?

Thanks for ruining the last hour of my life (just kidding).

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby zjk924 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 7:01 pm

Hahaha dude, this has been killing me for the past 3 days.

Nothing on the waiver wire- Viking's D is up for grabs, which has 5th most fantasy points, but they played this week already. And they've got a tough second half schedule coming up, so I'm not sure if I want to grab them. Although I think I might drop Felix Jones for them, or something. Not sure.

Anyways, thanks so much for the input, haha.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby big.d57 » Fri Oct 26, 2012 11:06 pm

prince_45243 wrote:Weeks 12 and 13 for ARI look favorable with STL and NYJ.

Also, I should give the caveat that SF looks worse than I think they actually are as a defense. They started off wtih GB, DET, MIN and they've also faced SEA and ARI this year and all but DET have winning records. They've also faced BUF and the NYJ. While I think they are becoming a matchup play for this year, I think the sacks/turnover metric may not relate as closely as the actual production weekly table does for them.

ARI has 8 INTs and 22 sacks in 7 games and has had plenty of fumble recoveries over that time. They may not always win games or keep scores down but they've really only had one bad game. The outlooks was only how well they look in comparison to other teams on chances of breakouts but really, I think those two are awfully good defenses to keep! Please don't let a bunch of statistics interfere with common sense either :)

Happy to drill the numbers on any waiver wire picks you have and I still think starting just about any team vs KC could be as good as either of those with good matchups.


Yeah this week I have AZ and SF facing each other obviously, kinda worried that AZ will get destroyed. PHI is available but obviously not a great matchup against ATL, the top defenses this week imo available are Oakland, Miami, NYJ, and DET. Would you roll with any of them? I'm leaning towards staying put.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 8

Postby prince_45243 » Sat Oct 27, 2012 6:56 pm

For this week, yes I think you should stand pat with what you have. See how things play out. Week to week, sometimes things can change.
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