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Defense Analyzer - Week 9

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Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:32 pm

POST MORTEM
Last week's Post: viewtopic.php?t=527152

1) CHI-12
2) ATL-4
3) SF-12
4) SEA-3
5) OAK-12
6) NYJ-3
7) MIN- (-3)
8) NE- 10
9) NYG-22
10) GB-11
MED score of 5
6/10 above average and all 6 were breakouts

Others
NFL: SF-12, NYJ-3, GB-11, MIA-18 ; SEA-3, CHI-12, OAK-12, NYG-22, IND-6, DAL-5=6 above avg, all 6 breakouts, as good as analyzer
KFFL: SF-12, GB-11, MIA-18, ATL-4, NE-10, NYG-22, KC-2 OAK-12, SD-6, MIN (-3);=6 above avg, all 6 brak outs as good as analyzer
Bleacher: SF-12 GB-11, CHI-12, ATL-4, NYJ-3, SEA-3, DET4 ARI-4 MIA (18), MIN-(-3)=4 above average, worse than analyzer again, will drop from analysis.
FFToolbox: SF-12, CHI-12, GB-11, NE-10, NYG-22, SEA-3, PIT-5, ARI-4, ATl-4, NJ-3=5 above average, all break outs, not as good as analyzer; that's 2/3 weeks ff toolbox not as good as analyzer.
Yahoo: CHI-12, SF-12, GB-11, MIN(-3), NE-10, ATL-4, SEA-3, NYG-22, NYJ-3, MIA (18): 6 above avg, all 6 break outs, as good as analyzer

Summary counts
6-SFand GB were chosen by all 6 and both breakoutgames
5-CHI, ATL, SEA, NYJ and NYG were chosen by 6 and only 2/5 had breakout games
4-MIN, NE and MIA were chosen by 4 and 2/3 had breakout games
3-OAK chosen by 3 and had a breakout game
2- ARI chosen by 2 and did not have a breakout game
1- IND, DAL, KC, SD, PIT and DET were chosen by only one and none had a break out game

For 4-6, that's 10 teams of which 6/10 had break out games
Of 1-3 top picks, 1 out of 8 had break out games

In all, enough evidence to keep going on the analyzer.
DEFENSE ANALYZER

The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

DEFENSE ANALYSIS
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum
Image

And this shows the output by week:
Image

Note: KC gave out a breakout game to OAK, arguably the WORST defense in the league. This seems to support very strongly that KC is the team that you may be better starting any defense against on average than perhaps CHI.

Final Rankings:

1) CHI vs. TEN - CHI is uber studly all year and while TEN hasn't been as giving in the last 3 weeks, still looks like a good start
2) ATL vs. DAL - 5/7 games DAL has given out plenty of love and ATL has really only had one bad week as a defense.
3) GB vs. ARI - While GB has only had one break out week all year, ARI has given 5 breakout weeks in a row. Good to go!
4) SD vs. KC - SD has only had 2 break out weeks but so far, KC has not yielded a bad game to any defense. Could break a trend but could also keep the trend.
5) NYG vs. PIT - NYG have had 4/8 break out games with 3 in a row. PIT however, has given only one break out game all year.
6) HOU vs. BUF - HOU has 5/7 above average games and plays a BUF team that has given out 3/7 break out games.
7) BAL vs. CLE - BAL has 5/7 games as above average with 4 breakouts and CLE has given up 3/8 above average games but has been stingy for over a month now. Two weeks ago, BAL managed only -2 points but that was vs. HOU. I don't think CLE is anywhere near as worrisome.
8) WAS vs. CAR - WAS has 4/8 above average weeks and several break outs playing a CAR that has given 4/7 above average/break out weeks. WAS may have their hands full this week however with CAR.
9) DEN vs. CIN - Denver blows hot and cold as a defense with only 3/7 games as break out games facing a CIN team that has given out only 3/7 break out games. But the Sacks/TO is highly favorable here and makes a top 10
10) SEA vs. MIN - SEA has 4/8 above average games with 3 break outs playing a MIN team that has given 3 above average and 2 breakout weeks in a row. SEA has been cooling off as a defense the last 3 weeks.

Riskier:

MIA vs. IND - MIA has been hot with 3 of their last 4 games being break out but playing an IND team that has only 2/7 break out weeks. It will be interesting to see if this breaks out but overall, it didn't replace one of the top 10 on likelihood. I have heartache about not putting such a hot defense in the top 10 and am betting others will.

MIN vs. SEA - MIN has 4 of 8 games a breakout defense and SEA has given 4 of 8 games as above average with 3 break outs. But the sacks/turnover ratio was truly unimpressive looking and so I couldn't argue it into the top 10.

NO vs. PHI - PHI has given 5/7 above average games but NO has only had 2/7 above average games. PHI has also been getting colder as an opponent over time and the high S/TO days may be ending for PHI. I'm not sure that this replaces SEA vs. MIN or DEN vs. CIN.

CLE vs. BAL - CLE continues to have a few good showings here and there and while BAL has given 2 of their last 3 games a break out games, I just don't have that kind of faith in CLE as a defense.

Caution: ARI vs. GB - I'm betting others put this one up as a potential pick. ARI does have 4/8 above average games but GB has been a terrible opponent the last 5 weeks and ARI seems on the decline as a defense. It does have a high ratio, however and is worth mentioning.

Sorry for the late post. Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Oct 30, 2012 9:50 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 18th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 10.1 points per game and have now faced the 9th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 4th by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 6.9 points per game and have had a medium toughness of schedule.

Image

STL's early run at the top of this list was thoroughly trashed by Rodgers and now by Brady. They are still unnaturally high on this list because of their earlier performance but they once had the third easiest schedule and now have only the 18th toughest schedule showing the power of those two passing offenses. CHI may not be ranked highly by the NFL but they have allowed only 6 passing TDs in 7 games and have 16 interceptions despite facing a top 10 passing schedule.

CAR surprises me a little as being a top 10 passing defense. But they have only allowed 9 passing TDs in 7 games now and others are much more giving.

WAS continues to be fun to pass against as Big Ben got 3 TDs off of them and Peyton racked up 3 scores as well vs. NO. But as easy as NE has been to pass against, Bradford wasn't able to take advantage this past week.

For Rushing, CHI is very high up there, of course, but their schedule has been getting easier and easier from a rushing toughness point of view and now has faced the second easiest schedule with wins over panthers, lions, jags and dallas which have all been bottom third rushing offenses this year except for CAR. SD may be severely over-rated as a rushing defense as they have faced the easiest schedule from a rushing standpoint.

Meanwhile, BUF has now allowed 13 rushing TDs in only 7 games (nearly 2 per game!) and 177 yards per game ON AVERAGE. Yeesh! Chris Johnson had 195 yards and 2 scores on them. Practically money.

Good luck all!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby sirsydney » Wed Oct 31, 2012 12:13 am

I have the chance to pickup SD, MIA, ATL & DET. I didn't see Detroit @ JAX in your rankings, and was wondering where they fall? I need my DST to come up big for me this week.
===============================
(10-team league) (.5 PPR) (KR yardage 1/15yds)
QB - Brady, Flacco
WR - Havin, Dez, Maclin, Cobb, Britt
RB - Sproles, A. Morris, Richardson, LeShoure, Green, JStew
TE - Gates, Daniels
K- ??
DST - ??

1. Number of teams are in your league = 10
2. How many of each position you start = 1 QB, 3 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 W/R, 1 K, 1 DEF
3. The size of your roster = 10 active, 7 bench
4. Your league's scoring system
PPR = 0.5
Pass TD = 4
TD = 6
FG = 3, 40+, 50+
All yardage (KR included) = 15 yds/ 1 point
Sacks = 1
Int/Fum = -1/-2
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby Txbred » Wed Oct 31, 2012 10:25 am

Just wanted to say thanks. I had a good feeling about mia but your numbers and reccomendation gave me the confidence to play them. They got me 22 points and I won by 7! On a side note how do you feel about den going forward? They held up pretty well against NO and seem to have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the year. I currently have bal, mia, and den but need to make some roster space. Thanks for all the help.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Oct 31, 2012 8:02 pm

sirsydney wrote:I have the chance to pickup SD, MIA, ATL & DET. I didn't see Detroit @ JAX in your rankings, and was wondering where they fall? I need my DST to come up big for me this week.


I like ATL vs. DAL the best of those four. Their sacks/turnover matchup is superior to CHI vs. TEN and that's saying something. DET is on the list, but it's ranked 19th. DET has only had 2 above average games as a defense playing a JAC team that has been generous. However, ATL is a higher quality defense playing a more generous Opponent. Unless you have some insider information on DET's matchup, I can't figure a way to put them above ATL.

Just wanted to say thanks. I had a good feeling about mia but your numbers and reccomendation gave me the confidence to play them. They got me 22 points and I won by 7! On a side note how do you feel about den going forward? They held up pretty well against NO and seem to have a pretty easy schedule the rest of the year. I currently have bal, mia, and den but need to make some roster space. Thanks for all the help.


I'm glad you started MIA. Last week's post had a weeks 9-11 and weeks 14-16 outlook. DEN indeed has the fourth best outlook for these next three weeks and the tenth best outlook in the playoff weeks. Week 12 is KC and that's practically money these days and Week 13 is TB who has been statistically the fourth toughest team to play against this year. That would be my only caveat of riding them out the rest of the year. BAL in week 13 has PIT which is not a very good matchup and MIA has NE so that is a troublesome week for your defenses. KC btw, plays CAR that week which I'm betting is widely available. After OAK, the worst defense in the league, scored a breakout game vs. KC, I think that pretty well confirms that they are worth starting against.

Starting against KC, DAL or DET every week would have gotten you more scores than any defense in the league except CHI. DAL plays PHI and DET plays IND in week 13.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 01, 2012 2:10 pm

DEFENSE COMPARISON
Image

NFL, KFFL and Yahoo composite as well as Michaels have consistently done as well as or better than the Analyzer. FFTooblox and FFix about the same or slightly worse than the analyzer.

CHI, NYG, and HOU were selected by all of the systems
ATL, GB, BAL and SEA were selected by all of the systems.
DET was selected by 5 (only analyzer and FF Toolbox did not pick DET)
SD and DEN were selected by 4 of the 7 systems
MIA was selected by 3 of the systems
PIT and MIN and WAS were selected by 2 of the systems
IND, DAL, ARI were selected by only 1 of the systems.

Well it looks like DET is a very popular pick this week. JAC has been very giving with 3/7 break out games and 4/7 above average games while DET has only had 2 above average games. THis didn't quite get as high as some of my other picks from a sacks/turnover standpoint but there it is!

WAS was a pick by the analyzer that doesn't seem to be as popular with the other systems. Approach with caution. But they have had 4/8 above average games and CAR has given 4/7 above average games and they have a top 10 sacks/turnovers measure. Still, teams that had 3 or fewer people pick them last week only had 1 out of 8 break out games vs. 6/10 for those with 4 or more systems to pick them.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby wtr23 » Thu Nov 01, 2012 11:21 pm

Thanks very much for the help ;-D I'm glad I started SD over Seattle this week. CHA CHING
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Nov 02, 2012 1:04 pm

Yes, the sack/fumble/defensive TD alone was worth it (9 points on one play). The pick six had me doing a pajama dance in my living room (SF is on bye so I took my own advice and started SD).
Now if only I could get reliable wide receivers...
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby robotninja » Fri Nov 02, 2012 5:13 pm

Another ;-D on the SD play, really needed a big week as my team is looking pretty ugly between bye weeks and injuries racking up.
10 Team Std Scoring No PPR
QB Stafford
RB Spiller
RB Morris
WR Nelson
WR Reggie Wayne
WR/TE Jimmy Graham
Flex Ridley
K and Def by committee
Min and Hartley

Bench
A Brown (pit)
Bernard Pierce
Roy Helu
Bryce Brown
Mark Ingram
Marlon Brown
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 9

Postby ccote321 » Sun Nov 04, 2012 4:34 am

This analyzer has seriously saved me this season and last... Thanks to this I don't really have to worry about drafting a top defense. Got 25 points playing the Chargers on Thursday night which could end up saving my week! Please never stop doing this!
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