Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=528109
Median Score for week = 5; Only 5 teams had breakout weeks this week which is much lower than the 8-12 we usually see.
Analyzer: CHI-25, ATL-5, GB-7, SD-25, NYG-14, HOU-9, BAL-6, WAS-0, DEN-13, SEA-9; 8/10 above average, 4 breakouts. A very good week for the analyzer
NFL: HOU-9, CHI-25, SD-25, DET-6, BAL-6, SEA-9, DAL-4, PIT-5,IND-3, NYG-14; 7/10 above average, 3 breakouts. The first week NFL has done worse than analyzer
KFFL: GB-7, HOU-9, CHI-25, SEA-9, MIA-1, ATL-5, DEN-13, DET-6, MIN-0, NYG-14; 7/10 above average, 3 breakouts. Worse than analyzer
Yahoo: CHI-25, GB-7, Hou-9, SEA-9, ATL-5, DET-6, DEN-13, MIA-1, BAL-6, NYG-14; 8/10 above average, 3 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer, just missed a breakout
Michaels Blog: Hou-9, GB-7, CHI-25, NYG-14, DET-6, SEA-9, ATL-5, MIN-0, PIT-5, BAL-6; 6/10 above average; 2 breakouts. Worse than analyzer, a rarity for this blog.
FFtoolbox: CHI-25, HOU-9, SD-25, ATL-5, DEN-13, GB-7, BAL-6, NYG-14, WAS-0, ARI-2; 7/10 above average; 4 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer
FFix: HOU-9, CHI-25, GB-7, SEA-9, DET-6, ATL-5, SD-25, MIA-1, NYG-14, BAL-6. 8/10 above average; 3 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer
First week that Analyzer has beaten all of the other prediction tools out there although many were nearly as good.
CHI, NYG and HOU were picked by all 7 and 2/3 were breakouts and all 3 were above average
GB, BAL, SEA and ATL were picked by 6 and no breakouts but 3/4 were above average
DET was picked by 5 and had an above average, no beakout week
SD, DEN were picked by 4 and both had breakout weeks
MIA was picked by 3 but had only one point
MIN and PIT were picked by 2 and neither had an above average game
ARI, IND and DAL were picked by 1 and none had an above average game
There were 10 teams that 4 of the 7 systems picked to be top 10 or better. Of those teams, 8/10 were above average and 4 out of the 5 breakout weeks for the week were among them.
Of 6 teams that were picked by 3 or fewer, 0/6 had an above average or breakout week.
This seems to very well establish over the last several weeks that when a team is picked by 3 or fewer systems, their odds of an above average or breakout game are much lower than if they are picked by 4 or more systems. In addition, Analyzer continues to perform as well or better on most weeks this year than comparison systems so I'll keep pressing on!
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.
My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum
And this shows the output by week:
Note: KC has given out nothing but good weeks all season. PHI has given only 2 bad weeks to defenses all season and both of those teams are giving more points on average than all defenses except CHI.
1) NYG vs. CIN - The giants have had 4 break out weeks in a row (even in losing efforts) and play a CIN team that has only given out 2 'bad games' all year as an opponent.
2) CHI vs. HOU - HOU is arguably one of the worst teams to face in the league and have given out 4/8 as really bad awful games. However, CHI has had 8/8 above average games with 7/8 being breakout weeks. Just really hard not to place them high with that good of a record.
3) HOU vs. CHI - Like CHI, HOU is a solid defense posting only 2 bad games out of 7 and 3/7 breakout weeks. CHI hasn't been as scary an opponent as HOU has and have given 2 of their last 3 weeks as above average games with a break out.
4) NE vs. BUF - NE has been a solid defense this year with only one bad game and 4/8 weeks as breakout weeks playing a buffalo team that has only given out 3 bad weeks.
5) TB vs. SD - TB has 5/8 above average games with 4 break out weeks. SD has been pretty generous of late (not including KC) with 3 above average games. TB is also a fairly hot team right now.
6) PIT vs. KC - PIT has yet to have a breakout game all year but plays a KC team that has given 6/8 break out games and 8/8 above average games.
7) SEA vs. NYJ - SEA has waned as a defense since early this season with no breakouts inthe last four weeks. The Jets, however, have had 3 of thier last 5 games given out as breakout weeks.
8) SF. vs. STL - SF has had 4 of their last 5 weeks as break out weeks playing a STL team that although giving fewer points out than last year has given out 3 of 8 weeks as breakout weeks.
9) DEN vs. CAR - CAR has been okay as an opponent with 4/8 weeks given out as break out weeks and DEN has had 4/8 break out weeks. Looks okay to me.
10) DAL vs. PHI - PHI has been the second best team to face all year and have given 4/8 games as breakouts and 6/8 as above average games. DAL hasn't done much as a defense this year with only one break out game.
MIA vs. TEN - MIA has had 3/8 break out weeks playing a TEN team that has given out 4/8 break out weeks. Overall, this looks like a pretty good matchup as TEN has given out the 5th most points to defenses although the sacks/turnover metric isn't as high as other matchups but I'm betting other systems pick this one up.
ATL vs. NO- ATL is a solid defense but the last few weeks have been pretty cold playing a NO team that has settle ddown dramatically since week 3 with no above average games given out. While the Sacks/turnover is high, it's still a scarier matchup on trends.
DET vs. MIN - MIN has given 3/4 above average weeks and 2/4 breakouts int he last few weeks. Ponder seems to have come back to earth. DET, however, hasn't had a breakout week all year and only 2 above average games. I just didn't trust it enough to put into the top 10.
Beware: SD vs. TB - Not sure if anyone's noticed but SD has creptup the ladder on defenses and is now 4th on overall average. But don't be fooled. They have only 3 good games all year with the rest being average or below average. Plus TB has been the third worst team to play this year.