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Defense Analyzer - Week 10

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Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 12:52 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=528109
POST MORTEM
DEFENSE COMPARISON
Image

Median Score for week = 5; Only 5 teams had breakout weeks this week which is much lower than the 8-12 we usually see.

Analyzer: CHI-25, ATL-5, GB-7, SD-25, NYG-14, HOU-9, BAL-6, WAS-0, DEN-13, SEA-9; 8/10 above average, 4 breakouts. A very good week for the analyzer
NFL: HOU-9, CHI-25, SD-25, DET-6, BAL-6, SEA-9, DAL-4, PIT-5,IND-3, NYG-14; 7/10 above average, 3 breakouts. The first week NFL has done worse than analyzer
KFFL: GB-7, HOU-9, CHI-25, SEA-9, MIA-1, ATL-5, DEN-13, DET-6, MIN-0, NYG-14; 7/10 above average, 3 breakouts. Worse than analyzer
Yahoo: CHI-25, GB-7, Hou-9, SEA-9, ATL-5, DET-6, DEN-13, MIA-1, BAL-6, NYG-14; 8/10 above average, 3 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer, just missed a breakout
Michaels Blog: Hou-9, GB-7, CHI-25, NYG-14, DET-6, SEA-9, ATL-5, MIN-0, PIT-5, BAL-6; 6/10 above average; 2 breakouts. Worse than analyzer, a rarity for this blog.
FFtoolbox: CHI-25, HOU-9, SD-25, ATL-5, DEN-13, GB-7, BAL-6, NYG-14, WAS-0, ARI-2; 7/10 above average; 4 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer
FFix: HOU-9, CHI-25, GB-7, SEA-9, DET-6, ATL-5, SD-25, MIA-1, NYG-14, BAL-6. 8/10 above average; 3 breakouts. Almost as good as analyzer

First week that Analyzer has beaten all of the other prediction tools out there although many were nearly as good.
CHI, NYG and HOU were picked by all 7 and 2/3 were breakouts and all 3 were above average
GB, BAL, SEA and ATL were picked by 6 and no breakouts but 3/4 were above average
DET was picked by 5 and had an above average, no beakout week
SD, DEN were picked by 4 and both had breakout weeks
MIA was picked by 3 but had only one point
MIN and PIT were picked by 2 and neither had an above average game
ARI, IND and DAL were picked by 1 and none had an above average game

There were 10 teams that 4 of the 7 systems picked to be top 10 or better. Of those teams, 8/10 were above average and 4 out of the 5 breakout weeks for the week were among them.

Of 6 teams that were picked by 3 or fewer, 0/6 had an above average or breakout week.
This seems to very well establish over the last several weeks that when a team is picked by 3 or fewer systems, their odds of an above average or breakout game are much lower than if they are picked by 4 or more systems. In addition, Analyzer continues to perform as well or better on most weeks this year than comparison systems so I'll keep pressing on!

DEFENSE ANALYZER

The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

DEFENSE ANALYSIS
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum
Image

And this shows the output by week:
Image

Note: KC has given out nothing but good weeks all season. PHI has given only 2 bad weeks to defenses all season and both of those teams are giving more points on average than all defenses except CHI.

Final Rankings:
1) NYG vs. CIN - The giants have had 4 break out weeks in a row (even in losing efforts) and play a CIN team that has only given out 2 'bad games' all year as an opponent.
2) CHI vs. HOU - HOU is arguably one of the worst teams to face in the league and have given out 4/8 as really bad awful games. However, CHI has had 8/8 above average games with 7/8 being breakout weeks. Just really hard not to place them high with that good of a record.
3) HOU vs. CHI - Like CHI, HOU is a solid defense posting only 2 bad games out of 7 and 3/7 breakout weeks. CHI hasn't been as scary an opponent as HOU has and have given 2 of their last 3 weeks as above average games with a break out.
4) NE vs. BUF - NE has been a solid defense this year with only one bad game and 4/8 weeks as breakout weeks playing a buffalo team that has only given out 3 bad weeks.
5) TB vs. SD - TB has 5/8 above average games with 4 break out weeks. SD has been pretty generous of late (not including KC) with 3 above average games. TB is also a fairly hot team right now.
6) PIT vs. KC - PIT has yet to have a breakout game all year but plays a KC team that has given 6/8 break out games and 8/8 above average games.
7) SEA vs. NYJ - SEA has waned as a defense since early this season with no breakouts inthe last four weeks. The Jets, however, have had 3 of thier last 5 games given out as breakout weeks.
8) SF. vs. STL - SF has had 4 of their last 5 weeks as break out weeks playing a STL team that although giving fewer points out than last year has given out 3 of 8 weeks as breakout weeks.
9) DEN vs. CAR - CAR has been okay as an opponent with 4/8 weeks given out as break out weeks and DEN has had 4/8 break out weeks. Looks okay to me.
10) DAL vs. PHI - PHI has been the second best team to face all year and have given 4/8 games as breakouts and 6/8 as above average games. DAL hasn't done much as a defense this year with only one break out game.

Riskier?
MIA vs. TEN - MIA has had 3/8 break out weeks playing a TEN team that has given out 4/8 break out weeks. Overall, this looks like a pretty good matchup as TEN has given out the 5th most points to defenses although the sacks/turnover metric isn't as high as other matchups but I'm betting other systems pick this one up.

ATL vs. NO- ATL is a solid defense but the last few weeks have been pretty cold playing a NO team that has settle ddown dramatically since week 3 with no above average games given out. While the Sacks/turnover is high, it's still a scarier matchup on trends.

DET vs. MIN - MIN has given 3/4 above average weeks and 2/4 breakouts int he last few weeks. Ponder seems to have come back to earth. DET, however, hasn't had a breakout week all year and only 2 above average games. I just didn't trust it enough to put into the top 10.

Beware: SD vs. TB - Not sure if anyone's noticed but SD has creptup the ladder on defenses and is now 4th on overall average. But don't be fooled. They have only 3 good games all year with the rest being average or below average. Plus TB has been the third worst team to play this year.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 06, 2012 1:22 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 16th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 10.2 points per game and have now faced the 6th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

Good luck!

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 2nd by yards alone by the NFL. They have yielded an average of only 6.7 points per game and have had a medium to slightly easy toughness of schedule.

Image

BAL is now ranked 3rd on my ranking despite being nearly bottom 10 by the NFL. True, they have yielded an average of 247ypg but they have allowed only 6 passing TDs in 8 games and have 9 picks. Compare that with Pittburgh who is ranked number 1 by the NFL for yielding only 174ypg but they have given 11 passing TDs (almost double BAL has) and only 4 picks (less than half of BAL's picks).

SEA has been not only tough as a passing defense but has actually faced a top 10 schedule this year.

KC is actually ranked 11th by the NFL for yielding 221 ypg but they have given up a tremendous 17 TDs in only 8 games and have only 6 picks making them one of the best teams to throw against.

From a rushing defense, BUF has yielded an AVERAGE of 169 yards per game on the ground plus 14 rushing TDS in only 8 games.

Most of the top 10 have had relatively easy schedules except for TB who has had a top 10 difficulty of rushing schedule yet has the lowest number of rushing ypg allowed at 77 and only 6 rushing TDs allowed.

DID YOU KNOW?
The DAL cowboys have only allowed 7 passing TDS in 8 games? That's actually pretty decent and up there with BAL, SF and CHI. Unlike those others, DAL only has 3 picks

ON the flip side, both WAS and TEN have allowed 20 TDS in 9 games. KC's pretty awful at 17 but here's a kicker, the NE Patriots have also allowed 17 passing TDS this year. That's worse than the Buffalo BIlls and Cleveland Browns each with 16.

The GB packers aren't ranked very highly on either list but they lead the league with a ridiculous 28 sacks in only 9 games. Compare that the lowly Jaguars who have only 8 sacks over 8 games.

From a rushing side, a little surprsing note is that the Baltimore Ravens have allowed not only 139 ypg rushing but 9 rushing TDs in 8 games. However, they have the most fumbles forced at 8. Only OAK, JAC and BUF have allowed more rushing TDs. The Jets, btw, have also allowed 9 rushing TDs. Meanwhile, the HOU texans have not allowed a rushing TD so far this season. SF, DET and the CHI bears have only allowed 2 TDs through 8 games.

From an offensive passing power, the DET lions actually have produced the highest YPG beating out the saints, romo, peyton and tom Brady. However, they've only had 10 passing TDs. GB has 26, NO has 22, Peyton has 20, Matt Ryan at 17 and Brady has 16 tied with roethlisberger and Freeman.

The KC chiefs lead the league with 14 picks given up but Tony Romo has 13 picks. That's worse than Brandon Wheedon with 12 or Vick with 9. Compare to Tom Brady with only 3pick s on the year. Roethlisberger has 4 and then a bunch at 5.

And who's the rushing powerhouse in the league? Adrian Peterson? Arian Foster? No, believe it or not the SF 49ers are averaging 168 ypg on the ground. Weird huh? And the Chiefs are 3rd at 149 ypg and, hold yer hats, the NE patriots have the 4th best RUSHING attack in the league with 149 ypg. Meanwhile, the DMC led raiders have the second worst rushing attack in the league at a piddly 77 ypg and only 3 rushing TDs. The bottom 10 rushing attacks also include the ATL Falcons who have only 98 ypg. The Redskins with RGIII and Morris are racking up 165 ypg and are second best in the league while the Spiller/FJax combo are putting up 141 ypg.

The Jags, Packers and Rams are tied for lowest rushing TDs at only 2 over 8 to 9 games. And for your McCoy/Vick fans, Philly has rushed into the endzone a mere 3 times in 8 games. On the other end of the spectrum, once more, the NE Patriots rushing attack leads the league with 12 rushing TDs. That's tied with the Skins and Texans adn better than the Giants and Miami at 11.

It should be no surprise that PHI leads the league with fumbles at 10 but the Skins are third on that list with 7. Strangely enough, neither the NO saints or the CHI bears have lost a fumble in their 8 games so far. And the Colts, Ravens and Bucs have only had one fumble so far this year.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby spookyman » Tue Nov 06, 2012 3:56 pm

All this info is really helpful ! ;-D
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby Cornbx » Tue Nov 06, 2012 7:31 pm

I learned my lesson last week I had a chance to pick up SD but didn't listen to the Analyzer. I wont make that mistake again, I'm rolling with the Analyzer and picking up TB this week. ;-D
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:14 am

Cornbx wrote:I learned my lesson last week I had a chance to pick up SD but didn't listen to the Analyzer. I wont make that mistake again, I'm rolling with the Analyzer and picking up TB this week. ;-D


Gah! You never know and I make no promises from week to week. I feel awful that every week I put a recommendation up there that falls flat. It wouldn't be fun to play fantasy football if it were totally predictable. The best that I can offer is that I use these same stats, get winning records most years and have won numerous championships. But I've also lost plenty of leagues and in the current dynasty league I'm in, I've been plagued by injuries and bad luck.

TB vs. SD is not as sure a pick as SD vs. KC was last week. Rivers seems to have something off the past two years however and TB looks like enough challenge that he could do it again. Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby Txbred » Wed Nov 07, 2012 9:50 am

Having a hard time deciding this week between bal, mia, and den. Which do you think is safe and which do you think is riskier? Leaning torwards den. Thanks for the time
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 10:00 am

Someone asked me in a pm what this 'path of least resistance' is that I mention from time to time. Basically, it looks like two charts.
Image

This graph takes the passing offense's raw power (yards, tds, ints per week) and their matchups' passing defense for that week. MANY other systems do this with the player in mind so please rely on those more than this chart. I've always hesitated to show this chart because I was afraid people would think I was ranking players. I'm only ranking passing and rushing offense vs. their matchup's defense. I do the same with rushing.

Now I take the passing rank and subtract the rushing rank. ATL, for example, has the number 1 passing matchup for the week with a ridiculous 45 point summation score between their passing power vs. how weak NO is as a passing defense. NE actually has the best rushing matchup for the week with their very strong rushing attack vs. a very weak buffalo rushing defense.

Now I take these matchup rankings and I simply subtract the passing rank from the rushing rank.
ATL is number 1 in passing but number 5 in their rushing matchup. Both are top 10 matchups but it looks like the path of least resistance tips very slightly towards passing (only a -4)

Image

But look at BUF. They have a top 10 passing matchup (6th) but only a 23rd ranked rushing matchup. The path of least resistance for BUF is definitely through the passing attack which I would say is decidedly weaker than their rushing attack. This does not bode well for BUF or even their rushers but it does suggest that Fitzpatrick and Stevie could be in for a better than usual day.

Arian Foster or Andre Johnson? Don't be an idiot, you start them both!!! But it does look like, if path of least resistance matters, that Andre Johnson and Schaub have a much harder path than Arian Foster will on the ground. CHI is number 1 vs. the pass and number 2 vs the rush and you'd never detect it otherwise but if you look at the passing offense and power, HOU's matchup is way down there at 25th out of 28 matchups for the week. Meanwhile, their rushing matchup is actually 10th.

SEA faces the Jets who are 7th against the pass and yet 29th vs. the rush. I would probably say that Russel and Marshawn have been equally successful. But if you look at their path of least resistance, they have the MOST favorable path towards rushing. They have a 6th ranked rushing matchup compared to a 26th ranked passing matchup (3rd worst for the week from passing). If path of least resistance matters, one would expect SEA to run hard and another good week for Marshawn. Russell....meh.

I have Cam Newton and Michael Vick. I know and I appreciate your condolences. Cam and Vick have both rushed much less than they have in prior years. Cam has a 22nd ranked passing matchup and an 11th ranked rushing matchup. Vick has an even worse 24th ranked passing matchup but an 18th ranked rushing matchup. The path of least resistance for CAR is much better towards rushing than passing while PHI's matchup looks only slightly better towards rushing than passing. Cam doesn't have as much of a rushing attack available as PHI who has McCoy. looks like their path of least resistance will go through McCoy rather than Vick unless Vick rushes which he hasn't as much. For Cam, much the same or worse since he doesn't have a McCoy quality back to hand off too. Cam's path of least resistance is on the ground which, again, he has not rushed as much this year as last.

Doug Martin or Josh Freeman? Heck if I know which will break out. There is a difference of only four ranks between the path of resistance for passing vs. rushing and they seem about equal in their offensive ability. It does tip to Martin but just slightly.

But TEN vs. MIA seems to heavily favor Hasselbeck over Chris Johnson. Their path of least resistance seems to clearly be in passing attack.

Let's set up some tests for this for next week and see how many these stupid statistics get right.
Path of Least Resistance would predict:
1) BUF's passers have a better than expected day and BUF"s rushers have a worse than expected day. So Fitzpatrick make s a surprise showing in the endzone while the duo of Spiller and FJax struggle a bit.
2) SD - Philip Rivers has a solid day, Ryan Mathews sucks it up (I have Ryan Mathews so this sucks for me).
3) DAL - Tony Romo looks playoff worthy vs. PHI while Felix Jones glowers on the sidelines
4) TEN - Matt Hasselbeck throws for 250+ and a pair of scores this week while Chris Johnson fails to find the endzone and has another miserable week.

On the other end.
1) SEA Marshawn Lynch goes for 100+ and a score but Russel Wilson may be held to less than 200 yards or more and has only one TD
2) Arian Foster has a better day than Schaub/Andre but still is likely to struggle vs. CHI's excellent rushing defense. But between them, it does look like Foster has the better matchup.
3) Gore goes for 100+ and a TD while Alex Smith gets less than 200 yards and maybe one score. Gore has the second best rushing matchup for the week compared to Smith who has the 16th best passing.
4) Adrian Peterson has another monster week while Christian Ponder's early success this year starts to look like a fluke.

Now in the middle of the path of least resistance metric, you have to go with how good your player is more so than the matchup. Let's test that as well.

1) NE has a 1 point path of least resistance path but let's face it, Brady is just way better than his rushing attack. I would think that Brady should have a great day. NE still has the best rushing matchup of the day though and I'm betting that the rushers will find the endzone as well. Overall, NE looks good offensively all around.

2) In OAK, I think Carson is probably a grade better than their back-up RBs vs. BAL and both have a bottom 10 matchup. Looks like both should have bad weeks with Carson possibly doing a shade better in an otherwise risky week to play either.

3) IND vs JAC looks like favorable matchups for both Luck and Ballard/Brown but Luck is, imo, a better quality player than either rb so I'd bet he has another good looking week while ballard/brown have an okay week.

I've used path of least resistance for a few years but have never had the guts to actually test it. But let's see if it holds up at all.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby chiroacademy » Wed Nov 07, 2012 11:11 am

Both DAL and TB are on the WW. Our league gets D points for points, yardage, sacks, turnovers and TDS. Who would you pick up for this week?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 12:19 pm

Txbred wrote:Having a hard time deciding this week between bal, mia, and den. Which do you think is safe and which do you think is riskier? Leaning torwards den. Thanks for the time


It's close between those. I think I'd lean to DEN myself but MIA vs. TEN and BAL vs. OAK are very close in matchup with a slight favor to MIA. I do expect BAL to get back on track vs. a weak OAK team but their recent poor performance even against teams like CLE and DAL w ho have been weak and giving made me hesitate to put them on the top 10. MIA has really good and really bad games while TEN gives really good or really bad games. That one seems the risky bet that could pay off big. Hasselbeck will have to throw and a pick six is very possible. If only MIA had more interceptions which they have a modestly good score for.

DEN plays CAR which is a better opponent than either TEN or OAK with regards to sacks/turnovers given up and DEN is a superior defense to either of those in performance so far. Let's see how often the other systems pick those but I lean to DEN as well.

chiroacademy wrote:Both DAL and TB are on the WW. Our league gets D points for points, yardage, sacks, turnovers and TDS. Who would you pick up for this week?


Yardage eh? Philly is 14th in passing yardage and 10th on rushing yardage. SD is 22th on passing yardage and 19th on rushing yardage. TB has also performed better as a defense than DAL has wtih 5/8 above average games and 4 break out weeks. DAL has only 1 above average/break out week as a defense so far. PHI has been more generous than SD with 6/8 above average games and 4 break outs while SD has given only 4 above average/break out weeks.

I think it tips to TB over DAL as you are relying on TB's defense more than PHI's continued fumbling issues. DAL has a solid pass rush, no doubt about it but so does TB and although they had poor showings vs. NO and WAS, they had solid outings vs. CAR, NYG, DAL, KC and now MIN. I think OAK is about the caliber as those.

I also suggest waiting to look at how often other systems pick TB or DAL in the top 10. Hope that helps.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby chiroacademy » Wed Nov 07, 2012 1:08 pm

I picked up TB
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