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Defense Analyzer - Week 10

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby chiroacademy » Wed Nov 07, 2012 2:26 pm

I can also pick up the Jets D which would have good match ups for the playoffs or GB defense (just released today) better D also good match ups. Which would be better?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby big.d57 » Wed Nov 07, 2012 5:26 pm

Denver Defense or Dallas Defense? Dallas could come up huge this week but then again Denver has been playing great lately. I have Denver Defense right now but am thinking about rolling with Dallas.
Scoring System
10pts-0 pts allowed
7 pts-1-6pts allowed
4 pts-7-13pts allowed
1pt-14-20pts allowed
7pts-Touchdowns
2pts-sack
3pts-blocked kick
3pts-safety
2pts-interception
2pts-fumble recovery
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 8:49 am

Image

Comparison with the best performing lists that I can find.
In prior weeks, if a defense was selected by 3 or fewer blogs, it tended to have less than a 20% chance of an above average week. But if selected by 4 or more systems, it has over 70% chance of having an above average week and captured most of the break out weeks for that week. No system alone, btw, performed better than 70% above average through 5 weeks of the defense analyzer (about 0 and 35 for doing better than 70% accuracy).

CHI, HOU, NE and PIT were selected by all 7 systems
NYG, SEA and SF were selected by 6. KFFL did not choose SEA or SF and the NFL projections did not pick the NYG
MIA was selected by 5 systems. The Analyzer and Michaels' blog did not pick MIA vs. TEN but it was in my riskier picks and looks good from the overall selection picks.
DEN was selected by 4 systems.
DET, BAL AND DAL all received 3 picks. The analyzer did not include DET or BAL in the top 10. This is the cutpoint where the odds of a breakout seem to drop off dramatically.
My pick of TB vs SD did not fare well with KFFL being the only other system to rank TB in the top 10. Please approach with caution!
IND, NYJ, ATL and MIN were each selected by only 1 of the systems. Thus far, none of the singleton picks have had an above average game in the past 5 weeks.

***

I have to admit, I'm feeling much more nervous about the TB vs. SD pick now. But, I can't think of a logical rationale not to keep TB in the top 10.

DAL was picked by only 3 systems (yahoo composite of four analysts, KFFL and Analyzer). DEN was picked by four (Analyzer, NFL projections, KFFL and Yahoo). For some reason, neither of those two were selected by Michaels, FFtooblox and FFix only chose DEN. Not sure what the latter 3 are seeing but it may be worth noting that DAL doesn't rank higher than 8th on anyone's list and DEN doesn't rate higher than 9th on anyone's list. I'd say it looks like a wash between those two.

Just to drill down those two for bigd,

DEN has 8 picks and DAL has only 3 picks in those games. DEN has also registered 24 sacks to DAL 16 in 8 games. DEN also has had 3 fumble recoveries to DAL 2. FAVOR DEN.

CAR has given up 8 picks and 17 sacks while PHI has given up 9 picks and a monstrous 27 sacks (favor DAL!). CAR has given up 5 fumbles and PHI has given up 10. FAVOR DAL

CAR has averaged 18.6 ppg, PHI has averaged 16.6 ppg. That's a wash.

DEN visits CAR, Dal visits PHI. Both are outdoor stadiums. Weather should be 60s and sunny while in CAR should be 70s and sunny. Both are conducive to big offenses and passing over rushing. Both CAR and PHI have a path of least resistance that favors the rush and PHI does have a good rushing game to fall back on. DAL and DEN should both favor the pass. Looks like a wash on those points.

DEN has averaged 5.5 more points per game on average as a defense than DAL has. PHI has averaged 4 more points per game as an opponent than CAR has. Tips to DEN.

Trends:
PHI has given 3 of their last 4 outings as above average with one break out. DAL has only had one break out or above average week all year.
CAR has given 2 of their last four games as breakouts but have also given out a zero and a six. DEN has had two of their last four games as breakout/above average games. Looks like this tips to DEN.

So no wonder they are tough to choose between. Do you trust the better defense or the more desirable matchup? I think this one tips very slightly to DEN as a pick but they're awfully close. If you have a gut feeling that you'd be happier with, that's about as good as I have left.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:05 am

PLAYOFF PROJECTIONS - UPDATE
Using the same sacks/turnover metric but updating with more data, the table below ranks defenses based on a playoff outlook of weeks 14-16.
Image

Ugh! I have SF as a defense and while they'll do me well through the season, they do face MIA, NE and SEA to finish out the year. NE is the absolute worst team to face so far and MIA has really quieted down as an opponent since week 4. SEA's not terrible as an opponent to have but I might look to a different defense.

TB popped up near the top. They have very favorable matchups vs. PHI and STL during their playoff runs. PHI has yielded the second most points to defense and STL has been yielding a fair amount of points. From my standpoint, the first two weeks is what I'd prefer to maximize.

HOU has been the second best defense in the league so far but they face NE, IND and MIN to close out. NE we already talked about how scary they are to face and IND has only yielded 2 break out games out of 8 games. MIN should be okay given their last four weeks of above average games.

CLE....seriously?! I'm not sure if I could hold my nose and start CLE through the playoffs but I have to admit, that they do face KC in week 14 which has been my practical lock for a breakout all year. And they get WAS in week 15 whcih has given 3 of their last 5 as above average weeks.

OAK actually has KC in week 15...If I were really ballsy, I could pick up CLE now, start them in week 14. Get OAK after that week if I win for 15 and then go back to SF in week 16.

Chiro asked about jets vs. GB through the playoffs. I like GB better through the playoffs vs. DET, CHI and TEN but beware of the CHI game no matter what the stats say. Just scary to me.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby Txbred » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:21 am

Great, now the choice is really hard between den and mia. Wonder whos gonna start at qb for ten though. Could be a deciding factor
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 9:56 am

Txbred wrote:Great, now the choice is really hard between den and mia. Wonder whos gonna start at qb for ten though. Could be a deciding factor


Yeah I'm pretty much married to my sacks/turnover metric. I look around at other systems but always come back to the one that brung me. It is, statistically speaking, the most accurate predictor of a break-out week that I can find after several years of correlation coefficients and linear regression models. They are better predictors of defensive TDs and even points against and overall break-outs. But having said that, the trends on MIA and TEN look very comfortable and 5 of the other 6 systems did pick MIA as I predicted they would. I just don't have a 'why' to put them in the top 10. But they are probably on the same level of a call as DEN.

I will agree, however, that just about any team starting a 'new' qb is very likely to give up sacks and turnovers for their first game back and if they put locker in the hotseat, MIA looks better and better.

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby Txbred » Thu Nov 08, 2012 10:27 am

Not holding you to it but you saying locker go with mia and if hassellbeck go with den?

On a side note looking forward, you like cin against kc next week? Looking at picking them up in advance
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 08, 2012 11:08 am

Yes, I think that's a good point of decision. Locker would seem to tip to starting Miami.

I like CIN vs. KC quite a bit. CIN has outperformed other defenses that performed well against KC. One never knows if KC will suddenly spark up and start going cold as an opponent but it's hard to argue with their history so far and it does seem like every year, there is a KC. (STL, DET, KC in prior years).
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby Txbred » Sat Nov 10, 2012 11:56 am

Picked up cin. Looks like Locker will start and I still cant decide, den or mia. Seems like everybody has got them picked very close together.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 10

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Nov 12, 2012 9:48 am

Txbred wrote:Picked up cin. Looks like Locker will start and I still cant decide, den or mia. Seems like everybody has got them picked very close together.


I guess I should've stuck with the analyzer, DEN got 26 to MIA's 0. DAL similarly did well with 24 points. Both had multiple TDs from their defenses and lots of pressure on the opposing offense including multiple sacks from DEN and a safety. A win for the analyzer although my guessing that Locker would struggle did not pan out.
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