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Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:24 am

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=528834

I NEED A VOLUNTEER! - I'm traveling to Europe leaving at noon today. Could someone please provide the comparison of Analyzer's ranking with the other systems out there by Thursday? Just do what I did, go to NFL.com defense projections, watch for Yahoo's composite ranking, google Hawk Michaels defense rankings, FFtoolbox, FFfix and KFFL all are easily findable. These have been the best performing of the rankings that I've seen. I also won't be around this week to answer specific questions. Sorry!

POST MORTEM
Image

Median score:8
Analyzer: NYG-1, CHI-9, HOU-15, NE-8, TB-18, PIT-8, SEA-16, SF-4, DEN-26, DAL-24: 8/10 above average; 5/10 breakout
NFL: PIT-8, HOU-15, SEA-16, SF-4, IND-20, NYJ-13, CHI-9, NE-8, DEN-26, MIA-0; 8/10 above average; 5/10 breakout - as good as analyzer
KFFL: NE-8, DET-0, PIT-8, NYG-1, CHI-9, MIA-0, DEN-26, HOU-15, DAL-24, TB-18'; 7/10 above average; 4/10 breakout - not as good as analyzer
Yahoo: PIT-8, SEA-16, SF-4, CHI-9, HOU-15, MIA-0, NE-8, DAL-24, NYG-1, BAL-16; 7/10 above average; 4/10 breakout - not as good as analyzer
Michaels: SF-4, NYG-1, HOU-15, CHI-9, PIT-8, SEA-16, NE-8, DET-0, ATL-2, MIN-6; 5/10 above average; 2/10 breakout - bad week!
FFtoolbox: PIT-8, CHI-9, SF-4, HOU-15, NE-8, SEA-16, NYG-1, MIA-0, BAL-16, DET-0; 6/10 above average; 3/10 breakout - bad week!
FFix: PIT-8, SF-4, SEA-16, CHI-9, HOU-15, MIA-0, NYG-1, NE-8, DEN-26, BAL-16' 7/10 above average; 4/10 breakout - not as good as analyzer

Overall a good week for the Analyzer. No system performed better and most systems performed worse than the Analyzer. NFL projections have consistently done as well or better than the analyzer. Yahoo and Michaels blog had in prior years done as well as analyzer or better but Analyzer appears to have the edge this year.

CHI, HOU, NE and PIT were selected by all 7 systems and all 4 had above average games and 1 breakout
NYG, SEA and SF were selected by 6. and 1/3 had aboveaverage/breakout
MIA was selected by 5 systems and had a zero
DEN was selected by 4 systems and had an aboveaverage/breakout.
Of the 9 teams with 4 or more picks, 6/9 had above average weeks with 3/9 breakouts.

DET, BAL AND DAL all received 3 picks and BAL and DAL had above average/breakouts
TB was picked by 2 including analyzer and had an above average/breakout
IND, NYJ, ATL and MIN were each selected by only 1 of the systems and 2/4 had above average/breakout weeks
Of the 9 teams with 3 or fewer picks 5/9 had above average games with all 5 being breakouts.

An anomaly this week as those with 3 or fewer picks actually had more breakouts than those with 4 or more but the weeks past have shown a much better ratio for those teams that had 4 or more picks. I would point out that TB this week and SD last week were both picked by analyzer but not well represented in other systems yet had breakout weeks. Hopefully that means I'm doing something right here.

DEFENSE ANALYZER

The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

DEFENSE ANALYSIS
Rank, defense, matchup, turnovers/sacks by defense, turnovers/sacks by offense, sum
Image

And this shows the output by week:
Image

KC Note: KC gave out an 8 last night which was about average/slightly above. The first week since week 3 they haven't given a breakout game. PIT has been pretty bad about turnovers, particularly interceptions this year and that may have played a role but so far, still hasn't given out a bad week as an opponent.

Final Rankings:

1) HOU vs. JAC - HOU has had 7/9 above average games with 4 break outs playing a JAC team 5/9 above average with 4 breakouts. Looks very good.
2) CIN vs. KC - Although only 4/9 breakout weeks for CIN, they handled a tough NYG team and face a KC that has been the most generous this year
3) DEN vs. SD - DEN is now the number 2 defense in my league and tied with HOU. They have 5/9 break out weeks and 2 in a row playing a SD team that has given up 5/9 above average and 4 breakout weeks. 3 of DEN's last four games have been breakout weeks
4) CHI vs. SF - With Alex Smith down with a concussion and a new QB and CHI has been very strong as a defense with all but 2 of 9 weeks being breakout weeks although SF has not been very generous as an opponent with 4/9 above average and only 2 break out weeks given this year.
5) TB VS. CAR - TB may not have any 20 point bombs but they are now 6/9 above average weeks with 5/9 breakouts facing a CAR team that has given up 5/9 breakout weeks. Cam is always dangerous but so far, this one looks good.
6) NE vs. IND - NE has slowly crept up the def ladder with 5 of their last 6 games being above average with 3 breakouts playing an IND team that has only given out 2 breakout/above average weeks and has been cold as an opponent for four straight games. Still, NE has 6/9 above average games this year and would keep this on the list.
7) WAS vs. PHI - WAS has had 3 straight below average games against averagish teams in NYG, PIT and CAR. One should remember that Vick was personally responsible for many of the turnovers seen by PHI and I lowered enthusiasm slightly because he's not there to cough up the ball. Still, I think this looks good from a pressure on QB standpoint. PHI has only given out 2 bad weeks and have given 2 weeks of 20+ points per week.
8) BAL vs. PIT - BAL has 6/9 above average games with 5 breakouts playing a PIT team that has only given out 2/9 above average/breakoutweeks. This one is here in respect to BAL but I think Big Ben's injury can only improve BAL's chances.
9) ATL vs. ARI - ARI has given 5/9 games as breakout weeks although the week before the bye only gave a 7. ATL has cooled off considerably as a defense, however with 3 straight below average games. Lowered enthusiasm slightly but still a top 10 matchup.
10) GB vs. DET - GB has only had 4/9 above average games and 2 break outs playing a DET team that has gotten a little cold with only one breakout week in the past 5 games. I'm guessing others will pick this one but I'm hesitant. DET has given up 4/9 above average weeks for the season.

Riskier Plays:
I struggled between GB, MIA, NYJ and SF to round out the top 10 and decided to go with the sacks/turnover as the tie breaker. However, I could have easily put either of the other two in there.

MIA vs. BUF - BUF has given 5/9 above average games and MIA has only 3/9 above average games and gotten cold with only one good game in the last 4.

NYJ vs. STL - the Jets have had only one of their last 3 as above average but 5/9 overall playing a STL team that has only given 3/9 above average games. Could have replaced GB with the jets but I think GB is a better defense despite the numbers

SF vs. CHI - While CHI is a dominant defense, they have suffered offensively and as an opponent have given 3 of their last 4 games as above average games with 2 break outs and for the year have 4/9 above average given out. However, SF has been hot and cold as a defense with 4 of last 6 being above average/breakouts but 2 in a row as low weeks. I couldn't put them up past GB either and with injuries in SF, I couldn't put them top 10.

Avoid: CLE vs. DAL - Only 3/9 above average/break out weeks for CLE and DAL has gotten pretty cold as an opponent with only 1 break out week in teh last 5 games. This does, however have a top 10 sack/to matchup. It's the recent trends that's worrisome.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:31 am

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 10th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 9.7 points per game and have now faced the 7th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 3nd by yards alone by the NFL. They have yielded an average of only 7.2 points per game and have had a medium to slightly easy toughness of schedule.
Image

BAL is underranked by the NFL at 26th making them appear to be a bottom 10 passing defense a they have given up 258 ypg through the air but they have yielded only 8 passing TDs in 9 games and have 10 picks That's less than one TD per game and more than one pick per game to opponents.. KC is way overranked by the NFL at 8th for yielding 218 ypg but have given up 18 passing TDs and have only 6 picks in that time frame. That's more than 2 TD per game and less than a pick per game.

It's clear to see that a team rates better based on how difficult their opponents are but ATL really is struggling as a rushing defense. They are ranked 25th by me and NFL but have had the 4th easiest schedule so far this year. SD is highly suspect as a top 3 rushing defense given that they've had the 3rd easiest schedule so far this year. HOU has gone another week without giving up a rushing TD now 9 games into the season. Tough! TB is ranked number one by the NFL but they have yielded 6 rushing TDs this year.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 13, 2012 9:52 am

Path of least resistance.
My predictions based on path of least resistance last week were:
1) BUF's passers have a better than expected day and BUF"s rushers have a worse than expected day. Fitzpatrick had 337/2/1 or 22 points in my league; Fred Jackson had 2 TDs and 80 yards rushing or 22 points and CJ had 70 yards and no TDs. Predicted a good week for fitz but not the rushing side.
2) SD - Philip Rivers has a solid day, Ryan Mathews sucks it up. Rivers had 337/3/2 or 28 points while Ryan Mathews had 54/0/0. Correct analysis.
3) DAL - Tony Romo looks playoff worthy vs. PHI while Felix Jones glowers on the sidelines. Romo had 209/2/0 while FJones did catch a TD but had 71/0/0 rushing. Correct analysis.
4) TEN - Matt Hasselbeck throws for 250+ and a pair of scores this week while Chris Johnson fails to find the endzone and has another miserable week. Locker had 122/2/0 for 20 points while 126/1/0. Predicted a better than expected passing week but not the rushing side.

On the other end.
1) SEA Marshawn Lynch goes for 100+ and a score but Russel Wilson may be held to less than 200 yards or more and has only one TD; Russel had 188/2/0 which was correct on yards but he scored twice. Lynch had 122/1/0 which is a nice rushing day.
2) Arian Foster has a better day than Schaub/Andre but still is likely to struggle vs. CHI's excellent rushing defense. But between them, it does look like Foster has the better matchup; Foster had 122/0 (had a receiving TD). Schuab had 95/1/2. Correctly picked on yards and a poor schaub day.
3) Gore goes for 100+ and a TD while Alex Smith gets less than 200 yards and maybe one score. Gore has the second best rushing matchup for the week compared to Smith who has the 16th best passing. Gore had 97/1/0 which is solid while smith was 72/1/0 before injury and Kaep had 117/0 passing (he did rush for one).
4) Adrian Peterson has another monster week while Christian Ponder's early success this year starts to look like a fluke; AP hd 171/1/0 which is a monster day while Ponder had 221/2/0 which is a very good week for him. Picked a good AP day but otherwise failed on Ponder.

Now in the middle of the path of least resistance metric, you have to go with how good your player is more so than the matchup. Let's test that as well.

1) NE has a 1 point path of least resistance path but let's face it, Brady is just way better than his rushing attack. I would think that Brady should have a great day. NE still has the best rushing matchup of the day though and I'm betting that the rushers will find the endzone as well. Overall, NE looks good offensively all around; NE rushers had 103 yards and 2 TDs while brady had 237/2 in the air. Correct analysis, called the good rushing day.

2) In OAK, I think Carson is probably a grade better than their back-up RBs vs. BAL and both have a bottom 10 matchup. Looks like both should have bad weeks with Carson possibly doing a shade better in an otherwise risky week to play either. Carson had 368/2/1 which is a great day while rushers had 70/0/0. Correct analysis.

3) IND vs JAC looks like favorable matchups for both Luck and Ballard/Brown but Luck is, imo, a better quality player than either rb so I'd bet he has another good looking week while ballard/brown have an okay week. Luck had 227/0 while rushers had 90/0. Defense helped IND but overall Luck did better than rushers.

Overall the path of least resistance analysis did very well calling good passing and rushing days along the lineup.

Week 11 Path of Least Resistance:
Image
This graph takes the passing offense's raw power (yards, tds, ints per week) and their matchups' passing defense for that week. MANY other systems do this with the player in mind so please rely on those more than this chart.

Now I take the passing rank and subtract the rushing rank. ATL, for example, has the number 1 passing matchup for the week with a ridiculous 45 point summation score between their passing power vs. how weak NO is as a passing defense. NE actually has the best rushing matchup for the week with their very strong rushing attack vs. a very weak buffalo rushing defense.

Image

Most of these are no brainers with Peyton, Aaron Rodgers and Matty Ice having solid days. However, it'll be interesting to see if PHI's backup QB can look good against a suspect WAS defense or if they go to a rushing attack with McCoy with Vick out. It looks like PHI has a much easier path in passing than rushing as does Dalton, Luck and Palmer. Still nothing there that would lead me to take up an OAK running back.

On the other end, I think Josh Freeman may have a worse week this week but it looks solid for Doug Martin. Again HOU has a better rushing option path than throwing this week. Gore has another good path of least resistance matchup while passing looks pretty bad. CAR is in the middle, no particular benefit rushing or passing.

In general, a heavily easy passing or rushing path of least resistance suggests more offensive power while a midling matchup you're relying on your players quality a lot more.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby rugame » Tue Nov 13, 2012 3:41 pm

Thanks for last week. Picked up TB and worked out great!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby chcbb » Wed Nov 14, 2012 11:10 am

Denver or Cincy? I know you give Cincy the slight edge in the rankings ... but the 29 pts (in my league at least) Denver put up on SD the last go around really makes them tempting to me... especially with them at home this week, and their D has been really starting to click the last few weeks.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby chiroacademy » Wed Nov 14, 2012 5:25 pm

HELP
I need a defense this week:

Available on WW:

WASH vs PHI
TB @ CAR
GB @ DET
JETS @ STL

Who Do I Start?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby TitsMcGahee » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:35 am

I picked up Tampa Bay, anyone else going with them?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby chiroacademy » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:40 am

I am going to try to pick up TB tonight but I have some feedback from another forum telling me to pick up STL. Not sure what to do. The defense Analyzer has done well for me since I started using it and STL is not a top 10 and TB is.

Anybody else want to give us their thoughts for a D/ST this week?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby spookyman » Thu Nov 15, 2012 11:47 am

Rams D is a great play this week. I'm looking more long-term, should I pickup Jets D? They have Rams, Arizona, Jags ( Week 14), Titans, chargers. The only bad matchup game is Patriots at home were I could play another D. Thoughts?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - WEEK 11

Postby chiroacademy » Thu Nov 15, 2012 3:08 pm

Why is the Rams D a great play? Because of the Jets woes? The analyzer doesn't have them in the top 10 so why Rams?
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