Defense Analyzer - Week 12

[prince_45243]

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=529497
POST MORTEM


The figure above compares the Analyzer's performance to the other systems that have performed well this year. The Analyzer continued to do well but was beaten out for the first time in a month by another system (FFtoolbox).

All 7 chose HOU, CIN, DEN, CHI and ATL but both HOU and CHI had bad weeks of 0 and 1 point each.
SF was chosen by 6 systems and had a breakout week (missed call by analyzer although I was agonizing between jets, gb and sf).
BAL chosen by 5 and had a breakoutweek
WAS, GB and DAL chosen by 4 and only DAL did not have a breakout week.

Of 10 teams chosen by 4 or more of the 7 systems, 7 out of the 10 had a breakout week.
NE, TB and STL were chosen by only 3 systems and only NE had a breakout week.
NYJ and MIA were chosen by 2 and 1 system but both had breakout weeks.
So of 5 teams picked by 3 or fewer, 3 out of the 5 had breakout weeks. A much higher percentage in teh past.

NFL, Yahoo and Fantasy Fix performed less well then Analyzer while KFFL and Michaels blog did as well as the Analyzer.

DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).



And performance by week:


And how generous an opponent has been by week:


Final Rankings:

1) DEN vs. KC - DEN is the number 2 ranked defense in my league has had 4 of last 5 as breakout games and plays a KC team that has yet to give out a bad game and only 3 non-breakout games this year.
2) NE vs. NYJ - NE is now the 3rd best defense in my league, has an excellent Sacks/TO ratio playing a jets team that is giving up an average of 10 ppg and 3 of it's last 4 as breakouts
3) BAL vs. SD - BAL has definitely come back since a mid season slump and now has two breakout games in a row playing a SD team that has given 4 of it's last 5 as breakout weeks
4) CAR vs. PHI - CAR is playing better on both sides of the ball and actually has 3 of their last four games as above average with 2 breakouts playing a PHI team in seeming disarray with an average 20points given to defenses per week in the last 3 weeks.
5) CHI vs. MIN - Ugly week last week with CHI and that was their first really bad week of the season as a defense. Still, they have good fundamentals and MIN has been generous with 4 of their last 5 games being average or above. They're no SF so let's hope for better
6) HOU vs. DET - HOU also suffered a bad week along with CHI and DET is an up and down opponent although still a top 10 opponent to face.
7) SEA vs. MIA - SEA is up and down as a defense although still averaging fairly high and MIA has given out two generous weeks in a row. Think this will be okay but it's lower on the list
8) ARI vs. STL - ARI bounced back with a good game last week after being cold since early in the year, they have a nice sacks/turnover matchup vs. STL who has been inconsistent as an opponent. A bit of a flier
9) STL vs. ARI - ARI has been a very generous opponent and has only given out one below average game since week 3. STL isn't the most stellar of defenses but ARI has been just so generous!
10)MIN vs. CHI - CHI has given out 4 of their last 5 games as above average games including 3 break out weeks playing a MIN team that hasn't had a breakout in over a month. This one makes it up here as CHI has been a hotter opponent to have lately and MIN is a pretty good defense.

Riskier:
CIN vs. OAK - CIN has had a recent flare up with two break out games facing an OAK team that has also given out two break out games. They have a top 10 sacks/turnover ratio and this one may turn out okay.

NYG vs. GB - Although a top 4 sacks/turnover ratio, GB has settled down a lot since week 4 and has been just very cold and the NYG have recently gotten a little cold as a defense.

WAS vs. DAL - DAL has similarly settled down in the last 5 weeks with only one break out game given up in that time frame. WAS has only one break out in the last 4 games as well. Not a bad sacks/to but lowered enthusiasm for trends.

GB vs. NYG The giants are also no fun to play against with only one breakout week in 10 weeks. GB is a coming on defense and this has a nice sack/to ratio but I couldn't statistically put it into the top 10.

Good luck folks!

[prince_45243]

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 11th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 10.9 points per game and have now faced the 7th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 2nd by yards alone by the NFL. They have yielded an average of only 7.4 points per game and have had a medium to slightly easy toughness of schedule.


PIT has climbed higher and higher in the rankings while BAL keeps falling in the NFL rankings but they are comparable passing defenses from a fantasy perspective with BAL having faced a slightly tougher schedule. CHI may be over-ranked now given their offensive woes but so far, they have not been generous to opposing qbs.

KC is way overrated by the NFL as 9th given how much they are yielding opponents but they have faced the 2nd toughest passing schedule this year. From a rushing perspective things do look a lot more similar to the NFL rankings although none of the top 10 have faced particularly difficult schedules while most of the bottom 10 have. NO and OAK and ATL are truly poor rushing defenses giving up yards to even the worst rushing offenses.

[sabercats]

Keep up your great work prince_45243. Did you come back USA yet? Happy Thanksgiving.
Last week I lost because Houston Def got 0 pt . This week should i keep Houston or go with NE or Sea, or Ari?
Just worry about Jet at NE. Thanks.

[Team Gooch]

I have the 49ers but benching them in favor of either the Rams @ Arizona or the Panthers @ Philly. Both of which scare me to death. Other options would be the Browns at home vs Charlie Batch and the Steelers or the Vikings @ Chic. Who would you feel most comfortable starting?

[saiyanzzrage]

I started the Rams last week against the Jets, and are keeping them in this week against Arizona...after this week, I will be dropping them in favor of Miami and the Jets for the rest of the season and playoffs

[petrieslastword]

I have the 49ers but benching them in favor of either the Rams @ Arizona or the Panthers @ Philly. Both of which scare me to death. Other options would be the Browns at home vs Charlie Batch and the Steelers or the Vikings @ Chic. Who would you feel most comfortable starting?

Starting against Philly is a great bet.

[sirsydney]

I'm fortunate enough to have both DEN and NE, and both are on the road. It's easy to say just pick one, but is there anything that would separate these two? Weather seems to be a non-factor.

KC always seems to play DEN tough at Arrowhead, but this year KC is a mess. I think Charles and Bowe (if he plays) can keep the DEN offense off the field better than the Jets can stop NE. Both teams have done well in the return game recently.

(It looks like Brady Quinn was just named the starter. Does that help any?)

[petrieslastword]

I'm fortunate enough to have both DEN and NE, and both are on the road. It's easy to say just pick one, but is there anything that would separate these two? Weather seems to be a non-factor.

KC always seems to play DEN tough at Arrowhead, but this year KC is a mess. I think Charles and Bowe (if he plays) can keep the DEN offense off the field better than the Jets can stop NE. Both teams have done well in the return game recently.

You take the one going against KC.

[big.d57]

I'm fortunate enough to have both DEN and NE, and both are on the road. It's easy to say just pick one, but is there anything that would separate these two? Weather seems to be a non-factor.

KC always seems to play DEN tough at Arrowhead, but this year KC is a mess. I think Charles and Bowe (if he plays) can keep the DEN offense off the field better than the Jets can stop NE. Both teams have done well in the return game recently.

(It looks like Brady Quinn was just named the starter. Does that help any?)

Definitely take Denver.

[drhanl]

Prince, any thoughts on CLE vs PIT this week. They have OAK and KC in the next 2 weeks.

I currently have CIN, and like the play this week. But, I think CLE has more upside.

ARI and PIT are also on the WW.

I'm in a tight battle and have to win weeks 12 and 13 to make the playoffs.