mzkp54 wrote:PPR
Need 3 out of this group, 1 RB, 2 flex
Jalen Parmele
Rashard Mendenhall
James Starks
Malcolm Floyd
Davone Bess
Golden Tate
Brandon Lafell
I'm already starting Cam and Steve Smith from CAR.
EDIT: Just got Parmele too, if you think he should be in the mix.
With a stat line of 24 carries for 80 yards, what jumps out at me are two factors: 1) Jalen Parmele didn't even average 4 YPC, and that 'aint good. 2) Jalen Parmele got 24 carries. That second factor is workhorse status; Doug Martin averages that exact number of carries per game. Coach Mularkey has made it clear that Parmele will remain a feature back (we're assuming until MJD returns.) However, he was also targeted 3 times for an incidental 3 yards, which certainly doesn't bode well for his PPR-specific value. However, in terms of "bang for your buck", Parmele is where it is this week for you, even with few targets in the passing game. Against a terrible Titans running defense (ranked #28), Parmele could see top 5 numbers this week, if he builds on some of the positives we saw from him last week: quick cutting, ability to break outside and outrun defenders. The Jaguars were a completely different (BETTER) offense with Chad Henne under center, and Parmele is a major cog in that machine. Jalen is everything that Rashad Jennings was supposed to have been, minus the heavy targets in the passing game.
Pittsburgh is a committee to steer clear of moving forward, barring any change in coach Tomlin's bellyaching about wishing he had a feature back who was both solidified and healthy. Mendenhall got the start last week, but Dwyer picked up more yardage. Redman had a concussion in the game, but he's coming back. All signs point to .... well, they point everywhere (picture Scarecrow from "The Wizard of Oz"). Nobody knows what the story is. What we DO know is that the Browns' run defense has been quietly improving. Check out their last three games against the run:
Week 8 - Ryan Mathews held to just 3.80 YPC (less than 100 yards on the day)
Week 9 - Ray Rice held to just 3.92 YPC (also less than 100 yards on the day)
[Week 10 - Bye week]
Week 11 - Felix Jones held to 3.70 YPC and just 42 total yards from scrimmage running.
Viewing all these variables, I'd say Mendenhall's value today is next to nil. At least, your confidence in starting him should be.
James Starks is nowhere near a fantasy discussion.
Exhibit A) He's averaging 3.21 yards per carry
Exhibit B) The Packers struggle when they try to balance run and pass; McCarthy can't be blind enough to keep forcing the issue
Exhibit C) McCarthy mentioned getting Alex Green more carries moving forward
Stay clear.
Your RB choice is clear this week: Jalen Parmele
At flex, Mendenhall and Starks are not an option.
Remember when Malcom Floyd was Philip Rivers' favorite target? Yah, Danario Alexander doesn't, either. This free agent off the street has incredible talent and a catching radius that seems to almost rival that of Calvin Johnson's. He's a vacuum out there, and Rivers searches for him nearly every time he drops back. The Ravens' secondary are ranked #22 in the league, which is the only reason to consider Floyd this week. But it's nearly impossible to cover Alexander, or to ignore Rivers' connection with him. Floyd's fantasy stock is plummeting.
Davon Bess has been targeted 82 times this season, which places him at #22 all season, and just behind the likes of Steve Smith, Demaryius Thomas, and Percy Harvin. He isn't the best receiver in the game, but when Hartline hasn't beated the secondary into deep ball territory, Tannehill is targeting Davon. (Hartline has only been targeted 6 more times this season than Bess). He may be the main go-to guy against a pretty stout Seattle secondary, in a game where the Dolphins have a completely unreliable backfield and a desperate need to pick-up first downs. I see him filling a Wes Welker-type role this week, and I like his upside because of it.
You would think Golden Tate - along with Sydney Rice - would able to tee-off against the Miami defense this Sunday. But believe it or not, I think Miami will be able to make the Seahawks a one-dimensional team this Sunday, containing Marshawn Lynch to less than 100 yards rushing and actually keeping the game close. That being said, Tate is coming off a couple of great games for fantasy production, and there are signs of Wilson coming into his own more and more as a competent (although quietly emerging) rookie QB. And Tate's targets have been on the rise.
Rodgers-Cromartie will make life difficult for Brandon LaFell Monday night; and if I were you, I'd hate the prospect of going to sleep Sunday night needing LaFell to have a decent/big game Monday night to win the week for me. I'd stay away from him this week if I were you.
Admittedly long-winded, but thorough, yea? ALL that to say:
RB - start Jalen Parmele
FLEX - start Bess and Tate
I could understand a case being made for Floyd, but I don't trust his targets anymore. His targets have been on a slight decline long-range.
Best of luck!
Oh, and if you wouldn't mind, this one could take a few of your minutes if you're up for it:
viewtopic.php?f=18&t=530587
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by mzkp54 » Thu Nov 22, 2012 9:41 am 
