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Defense Analyzer - Week 13

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Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 12:52 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=530207

Sorry for the Thanksgiving absence (/wipes gravy from lip). Had to (/nom nom) eat big'em Turkey (/slurp).

I wasn't able to post the comparisons but here's how the Analyzer fared:
Median score: 9
1) DEN-7
2) NE-25
3) BAL-10
4) CAR-7
5) CHI-12
6) HOU-4
7) SEA-9
8) ARI-5
9) STL-23
10) MIN-4

A bad week for the Analzyer, only 5/10 were median or above with only 3 breakouts predicted. HOU struggled against DET moreso than I would have predicted and MIN wasn't able to garner many turnovers and only 1 sack with Cutler's return. CAR produced 3 fumbles, 2 off of the rookie rb but didn't convert them to scores and Nick Foles failed to throw a pick. Interesting. Vs. KC, DEN had been my top pick but they managed only 1 pick and a surprising 2 sacks. A tough week for the Analyzer but haven't had many off-weeks in several months now so will keep pressing on.

DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

Image
And performance by week:
Image
And how generous an opponent has been by week:
Image

Final Rankings:
Caveat: Slim pickings this week for breakouts. Has been for several weeks but the best I can do.
1) NE vs. MIA - NE is the second best defense in muy league, have had 4 of their last 5 games as break out weeks plus two 20 plus weeks in a row. MIA has given 3 of their last 5 as above average weeks.
2) CHI vs. SEA - CHI has slowed down a little but still the number one defense in the league. SEA has only given 3 of their last 5 games as break outs although also given 2 below average weeks as well. Still looks good.
3) CIN vs. SD - CIN has had 3 breakout weeks in a row playing a SD team that has given 5 of their last 6 as breakout weeks.
4) NYJ vs. ARI - ARI has now given 7 of their last 8 games as breakout games. That's approaching KC's consistency. The Jets have only had 2 break out games in the past 5 weeks but this looks like a better matchup.
5) CAR vs. KC - KC has seemed to cool off with only one break out in the last 3 weeks but still giving average points out. CAR has had 2 of their last 5 be breakouts with 3 above averages. It rates high on the sacks/turnover ratio.
6) NYG vs. WAS - The Giants have had 5 of their last 6 games as break out weeks but play a WAS team that has not given a break out week in the last 5 weeks. Lowered enthusiasm as a result.
7) SF vs. STL - SF has fought their way back as a defense and now has 5 of their last 7 games as breakout games playing a STL team that has given only 2 of their last 5 as breakouts. While the sacks/to is not promising, this has conventional wisdom value.
8) BAL vs PIT - BAL has had 3 straight breakout games and facing a PIT team that has now given 3 of their last 4 as break-out games. However, some of that was since Big Ben's injury and he may start vs. BAL. With Big Ben at the helm, they rarely gave a break out week.
9) CLE vs. OAK - OAK has given 3 breakout weeks in a row and CLE has had 3 of their last 5 as above average weeks including 21 points vs. PIT. They have, however, had poor weeks against otherwise generous teams so approach with caution.
10) HOU vs. TEN - This is reaching pretty deep into the sacks/turnover ratio. HOU has slowed down a bit as a defense now with only 2 breakouts in the last 5 games and TEN has only given one breakout in 6 weeks. Normally, that kind of recent trend would not make a top 10. But I tried to leave this off the top 10 three times this morning and just couldn't do it. So I made them 10th. Probably should classify as a risky play but this just feels like a top 10 even if the stats don't say it. (Shaky hands).

Riskier plays:
ARI vs. NYJ - ARI has burned me for many weeks now with only 1 breakout in the last 7 games. They play a jets team that has given 4 of their last 5 games as breakouts and they keep showing up on top 10 sacks/turnovers. Still, they just aren't producing so I finally dropped them from top 10 (watch them show up now).

DAL vs. PHI was dropped from the top 10. DAL has only had one break out week in the past 8 games and although PHI has been second most generous, I do think with Vick out of the way, the turnovers will be much less frequent (sorry Vick fans). PHI gave up only one sack and no ints. They did have 3 fumbles but things will likely settle and DAL has not been superb as a defense.

I also pulled SEA vs. CHI out of the top 10. SEA is a fine defense with 4 of their lat 5 as above average but only one breakout playing a CHI team that had although they have given up 3 of last 5 as breakouts, 2 of those were with backup qbs. It's a riskier play but the lack of breakouts on SEA lowered my enthuisasm.

GB vs. MIN was passed over. MIN has given 2 of their last 5 as breakouts but GB hasn't been stellar in defense with only 2 out of 5 breakouts and the rest below average.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:13 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 6th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 10.8 points per game and have now faced the 10th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 2nd by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 8.8 points per game and have had a medium toughness of schedule.
Image

BAL is under-rated by the NFL at 23rd. While they have yielded 244 yards per game, they have only yielded 9 passing TDs in 11 games and have 11 picks over that span. STL is probably under-rated as well. They once topped this list and have yielded only 13 passing TDs in 11 games and have 12 picks. Compare to KC who remains over-rated by the NFL at 10th for yielding only 219 yards but they have given up 22 passing TDs in 11 games and only 7 picks.

OAK and WAS have both yielded 23 passing TDs in only 11 games. To my surprise, NE and NO have yielded 22 passing TDs this year. As bad as TEN and KC and worse than BUF, PHI and SD. HOU isn't doing that well either yielding 19 although Rodgers threw for 6 of those. The Ravens have yielded the fewest at 9 with SEA at 10. CHI, ATl follow at 11 passing TDS.

DEN has the most sacks at 37 (which is why their 1 sack vs kc surprised me). But who would have guessed CIN is second with 35 and GB follows with 34 and then STL at 31. JAC and OAK have only 13 sacks through 11 games.

The Bears have 20 picks and lead the league with the giants close behind at 18th. But TB comes in 3rd with 16 picks on the year! DAL and IND have the fewest with only 5 picks and behind them at 6 picks is PIT and MIN. Both once powerhouses of turnovers.
The rushing rankings look very similar to the top 10 of the NFL this year. While TB has been the stiffest on yards, they have yielded 9 rushing TDs in 11 games. Compare that to SF with only 3 and HOU with only 2. STL is probably over-rated at 14th by the NFL as they have yielded 14 rushing TDs in 11 games.

The top 3 most generous rushing defenses are BUF with 16 rushing TDs given up, OAK at 15 and JAC and STL at 14 each.BAL is second best at creating fumbles with 9 but NE shocked me as the most with 11! MIA was once vaunted as a powerhouse rushing defense but they surprisingly have had only 1 fumble in 11 games. The rams also. GB has only had 2 and TB has only had 3.

Of the offenses, the chiefs lead the league by giving up 16 interceptions this year but second is DAL with 15! Rivers at 14 and matty ice at 13!! That's worse than Vick's 12. Tom Brady has...3 picks in 11 games. Yeesh! ANd RGIII is second best at only 6 picks this year. Nice!

I think we all know that the Cards have yielded the most sacks. 46 if you're still counting. The next nearest at 37 is (gasp) green bay?! That's worse than CHI with 35 and PHI at 34 sacks. Brady has been sacked 15 times but better than him is Eli who has only taken 14 sacks all year, the fewest in the league.

And guess who leads the league in rushing TDs? HOU? No, they are second highest with 15 rushing TDs. NYG with 14, DET has 13. No, it is the NE patriots who lead the league with a whopping 18 rushing TDs. And the GB packers? Worst in the league with only 2 rushing TDs. That's worse than STL, OAK and JAC with 3 and SD with only 4.

Anyone could tell you that PHI leads the league with fumbles at 15. Second closest is KC with 10 though so that's 50% more fumbles than the next nearest team. WAS trails them at 9 fumbles. But who hasn't fumbled once all year? The team that rarely rushes, NOs. ARI, IND, CHI, TB and BAL have only coughed up 2 fumbles in 11 games this year.

Fun times, good luck in the playoffs!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 1:33 pm

PLAYOFF PICTURES
Using the same methods as above, the following image shows the defense, rushing and passing outlooks for weeks 14-16 (common playoff weeks).

Image
CLE surprised me here a little. They have a surprisingly high ranking although KC helps that enormously. I'd be cautious about WAS and DEN both of who give very few points to defenses. I have SF unfortunately and they play MIA, NE and SEA in the playoff weeks with only MIA being a favorable matchup. CLE has more favorable matchups in the final two weeks than SF does although I'd still rate SF as a higher quality defense. Their matchups just suck. WAS has a nice close out with CLE and PHI and may be available. TB had been doing fine as a defense but slowed down the last two weeks and although they get PHI in week 14, it goes south from there with NO and STL.

Oh goodness,there's ARI again. All 11+ ratios facing SEA, DET and CHI all of which they are likely to lose. I'd be careful with them. SEA is not bad to have the first two weeks and okay for the final week. But the team with CHI stands head and shoulders above the other teams.

PASSING:
Image

The jets may have the easiest schedule coming up with JAC< TEN and SD. JAC is ranked 19th by me in passing defense and 28th by the NFL and the other two are bottom ten defenses. I'm suspicious of Sanchez however. ANdrew Luck has been matchup play but looks solid through the playoffs with TEN, HOU and KC. All 20th or worse passing defenses. Same with Schaub. Brandon Weedon and company? Not bad actually, playing KC, WAS and DEN. DEN is 11th but KC and WAS are both bottom 7 passing defenses. Josh Freeman has PHI, NO and STL. NO is dead last on my ranking at 32nd and PHI is bottom 10 at 23rd. I have CAM facing ATL, SD and OAK. Okay. Nothing spectacular.

How's that Christian Ponder pickup looking? He faces CHI, STL and HOU going into the playoffs (gulp). Rivers and his perpetual turnovers? PIT, CAR and the jets. 2 are top 10 passing defenses, jets are 13th.

RUSHING:
Image
Hm, Chris Johnson gets IND, NYJ and GB. GB is 16th and the other two are bottom 10 rushing defense. Interesting. I have Mathews (your condolences are appreciated). PIT, CAR and the jets. I can live with that. Two bottom 10 rushing defenses in that mix. But I'm praying for a bradshaw injury (sorry dude) so that David Wilson can feast on NO, ATl, BUF. ALL bottom 10 rushing defenses.

SF may be the top rushing offense this year but they face MIA, NE and SEA going into playoff weeks. THat's 2 top 10 and 13th ranked rushing defenses. AP has CHI, STL and HOU(!). CHI and HOU are ranked 3 and 1 in rushing defense. Yeesh!

Good luck everyone!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby c1turbo » Tue Nov 27, 2012 2:57 pm

Thanks for your work.


I really liked using the path of resistance for rushing and passing.
It was used in week 11 analyzer.

Are you able to do a table for us for that?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby sabercats » Tue Nov 27, 2012 4:18 pm

Rolled with NE last week for 27pts, go with them again this week. Thanks Bro. Will use start Brown Def next week :-)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Nov 27, 2012 4:25 pm

Path of Least Resistance

As requested, here is the path of least resistance modeling. Just to describe it, I calculate the offensive passing and rushing power of each team, the relative ease of the passing and rushing defense they face for the week which is presented in the first figure. Then to find their path of least resistance, I subtract the passing rank from the rushing rank for that week. The principle here is that if you have a QB/WR of roughly equal quality to the running back, then the path of least resistance suggest which will end up doing better. If very 'negative' this favors passing. If very positive, this favors rushing.

If you have very different quality of players, say Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. Then you're best off sticking with the better player.
The following table shows raw offensive power compared to how much their match-up gives up to defenses.
Image
Denver, for example, has the best passing matchup of the week. TB is ranked 27th on passing defense and is very generous and Denver is ranked 6th on passing offense by the NFL (I don't rank offenses, just calculate the stas). Meanwhile, Jay Culter has one of the worst passing matchups of the week. His offense is 32nd on passing rank by NFL (better by the Analyzer which ranks TDs and INTs as well) but faces a SEA defense that is 4th best in the league.

On Rushing, Frank Gore et al has the best matchup. They bring the number 1 rushing offense against the number 27 rushing defense. Arian Foster brings the 5th ranked HOU offense against the 26th ranked TEN rushing defense.

Image

So here, the more negative the number, the more the path of least resistance favors passing. The more positive the number, the more it favors rushing.

DEN clearly heavily favors the pass. I wouldn't expect much out of Hillman unless it becomes a blow out. Same with GB but unfortunately, it looks this way for CIN as well. CIN has the 5th ranked passing matchup of the week but the 28th ranked rushing matchup of the week. The path of least resistance seems to favor Dalton over Green-Ellis here.

Meanwhile, AP has the 7th best rushing matchup vs. GB while Ponder has the 25th best passing matchup. The path of least resistance there looks to be on the ground and suggests another off week for Ponder.

The system, however, has never been 'tested' formally the way the other stats have. I have to admit I look at it when choosing my own matchups but its complicated.

Take Ryan Mathews. He's my rb gaicng CIN. SD has a -2 path of least resistance which is negligible. Between Rivers and Mathews, I'd guess Rivers is the better player and would suspect he'll have a better day. I'd still start Mathews but like most weeks, expect no touchdowns and less than a hundred yards. I also have Larry Fitzgerald facing the jets. But ARI has the fourth worst passing matchup while ARI has the 13th best rushing matchup. This seems to very heavily favor the rushing game as the path of least resistance and really, who the heck is this Lindley guy anyway?

I sense a big day ahead for Jamaal, he hasn't had this favorable of a rushing lineup in weeks. I suspect Forte will have an okay week as well. CHI has only the 14th best matchup rushing but has the second worst matchup passing. This suggest their path of least resistance will be rushing. DAL path of least resistance seems to favor Romo et al over the second worst rushing matchup vs. PHI. I'm curious about the TEN path that seems to heavily favor the pass. TEN does have the absolute worst rushing matchup while locker has the 18th easiest passing matchup. A bad day for Chris Johnson and a better than expected Locker day?

Anyway, it's very difficult to actually test the system but if it's useful, here it is :)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby c1turbo » Wed Nov 28, 2012 9:53 am

Thanks! In week 11 it helped me decide on my players.
I have alot of RB and WR's that is hard to choose from: I was able to put in Andre Johnson when he blew up, I was about to bench him because of poor \
production.

Pick 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex
Andre Johnson
Dez
Vincent Jackson
Nicks
Torrey

CJ Spiller
Jamaal Charles
Trent

Using the model: I've selected DEZ, NICKS and C.J Spiller, Jamaal Charles
Flex: I have to decide on Andre Johnson or Trent Richardson. or mix it up with the starters.
I cannot believe someone dropped hakeem nicks this year...
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby Aintdatapeach » Wed Nov 28, 2012 10:21 am

Thanks for these defense analyzer posts prince, really great info!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 11:00 am

sabercats wrote:Rolled with NE last week for 27pts, go with them again this week. Thanks Bro. Will use start Brown Def next week :-)


Sounds good but keep checking the analyzer posts as there may be better options than CLE available later in the season.

Aintdatapeach wrote:Thanks for these defense analyzer posts prince, really great info!


You're welcome! Any suggestions on how to improve the system?

c1turbo wrote:Pick 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 Flex
Andre Johnson, Dez, Vincent Jackson, Nicks,Torrey
CJ Spiller, Jamaal Charles, Trent

Using the model: I've selected DEZ, NICKS and C.J Spiller, Jamaal Charles
Flex: I have to decide on Andre Johnson or Trent Richardson. or mix it up with the starters.
I cannot believe someone dropped hakeem nicks this year...


I would start Andre Johnson vs. TEN's suspect secondary. The path very slightly favors the rush and those are equivalent powers imho at Houston and I would expect a nice bounce for Andre Johnson.

DAL definitely looks like their path of least resistance is through the air but there's no guarantee Romo can get it to the right receiver in any given game. A few weeks ago, it looked like a big NE rushing path of least resistance and Brady threw for 3 TDs. He gets started even if it were +22 to rush. Make sense?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:30 pm

I currently have Carolina and Arizona is on my wire. Should I dump Donald Brown and stash them so I have both for the playoffs of is it not worth it?
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