Although the Analyzer has overall done as well or better than most other systems (no data for week 12), NFL and KFFL have had the highest rating otherwise. Funston and Bleacher and ESPN were ultimately dropped for poor performance. Michaels blog was consistently as good as analyzer last year but has not performed as well this year. Yahoo composite rankings last year did as well or better than Analyzer just about every week with only a handful of weeks that the Analyzer was superior but this year, Analyzer has proved more accurate than the Yahoo composite score. However, things may change
In the past, those teams that had 4 or more of the seven systems to pick them had a greater than 70% chance of a breakout game and most were above average. Of those with 3 or fewer picks, less than half on most weeks and less than a third on most weeks had breakouts. For those following along, the Analyzer has done okay with picks that weren't selected by many other systems.
This week, NE, CHI and SF were selected by all 7 systems. NYJ, BAL and HOU were picked by 6 of the systems. Michaels blog did not pick NYJ or BAL and the NFL projection system did not pick HOU. As I had said in my top 10 list, mathematically HOU doesn't matchup well vs. TEN and I think NFL is strictly a math based system. But, as with the other systems, awfully hard not to imagine they'll destroy TEN.
ARI was selected by 5 systems. The Analyzer (has given up on them) and the FFtoolbox did not pick ARI. No matter what the stats say they should be doing as a defense each week, they've had one break out in seven games now. They're getting sacks and turnovers which is the greatest predictor of defensive TDs and suppressing points against but for whatever reason, it's just not translating that way for ARI. Still, 5 systems picked them and they have all the trappings of a solid defense.
CIN, CAR, DAL and SEA were selected by 4 systems. DAL and SEA were not selected by the Analyzer. DAL does have a top 10 sacks/turnover ratio but has only had 2 break out weeks in 11 games. PHI has been the second most generous team to play against and with injuries to McCoy and Vick and DeSean, it's possible that we should have ranked this higher. But I had dropped DAL for poor performance as a defense and the other factors may not be as critical. Despite Bryce Brown's fumbles, PHI only gave WAS (a better defense than DAL) 7 points last week. Use your best judgement.
SEA faces CHI and also has a top 10 sacks/turnover breakout but were dropped from top 10 for having only 1 breakout in last 5 games. CHI has given out a number of breakout weeks and Cutler isn't exactly sticky fingers with the ball. That 4 systems selected SEA however is worth considering.
DEN was selected by 3 systems (Yahoo, Michaels and FFix). They had a low end to/s ratio. They are the third best defense this year but TB is the second worst team to play against giving an average of only 3.82 points per game to opposing defenses. In the past 5 weeks, TB has given out a zero, -1, -3, a 2 and a 13. Scary if you ask me.
NYG and CLE were selected by the Analyzer but only one other system. FFtoolbox chose NYG and KFFL chose CLE (and ranked them 3rd!). The Giants face WAS and have the second highest sacks/to metric in the game and are second only to CHI in sacks/turnovers obtained. They've had 5 of their last 6 weeks as a defense as a breakout game although WAS has only given one breakout in the last 5 games. It's a sketchier one, I admit, because of WAS's offensive power and lack of generosity as an opponent but I gave the nod here to the quality of the defense and the very high sacks/to ratio.
CLE faces OAK and has the 8th best sacks/turnover metric. CLE has had 4 of their last 6 games as above average and 3 break outs facing an OAK team that has given 3 straight break out weeks. CLE just abused PIT for 21 points although admittedly things were pretty unhinged there with Big Ben's injury. Still, only one other system predicted a good game for CLE so please approach with caution.
BUF vs JAC was selected by two systems, NFL and FFtoolbox. BUF has had 2 above average weeks in a row but those are the only two since week 6. JAC had been quite generous in the middle weeks but less consistent the past few as Chad Henne has discovered his arm is still working. A risky play and one that the Analyzer didn't put as top 10.
GB was selected by Michaels and ranked 4th highest this week. GB just came off a -3 outing to NYG and plays MIN and has the 11th best sacks/turnover metric. MIN has given 5 of their last 6 games as above average outings but only 2 break outs and GB has had 2 of their last 5 as above average. I actually don't think it 's a terrible pick myself from a sacks/turnover perspective and a little surprised that others didn't pick it up. I didn't either and only one system picked them. Approach with caution.
Isn't this fun
Good luck everyone!