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Defense Analyzer - Week 13

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 1:49 pm

petrieslastword wrote:I currently have Carolina and Arizona is on my wire. Should I dump Donald Brown and stash them so I have both for the playoffs of is it not worth it?


I think that depends on whether you'd use D. Brown (what the rest of your matchups look like). Brown has a favorable week 14 and 16 matchup but terrible week 15. Any other d's on the ww?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Wed Nov 28, 2012 2:33 pm

prince_45243 wrote:
petrieslastword wrote:I currently have Carolina and Arizona is on my wire. Should I dump Donald Brown and stash them so I have both for the playoffs of is it not worth it?


I think that depends on whether you'd use D. Brown (what the rest of your matchups look like). Brown has a favorable week 14 and 16 matchup but terrible week 15. Any other d's on the ww?



No relevant D's really, I'm scraping the bottom. Should've grabbed NE weeks ago when I had the chance.

I'm unlikely to play Brown. I have Gore, Wells, Matthews, and Moreno, so I don't see benching any of them for the now Indy backup.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby ramble2 » Wed Nov 28, 2012 4:21 pm

Heads up to the Cafe that CIN is only 49% owned on Yahoo right now. I'm not shocked to see them listed as the #2 expected outcome for weeks 14-16 (playing DAL, @PHI, @PIT). Add in that they play SD this week, whose OL can't seem to protect Rivers, and that's a great pickup for the stretch run.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 9:40 am

Image

Although the Analyzer has overall done as well or better than most other systems (no data for week 12), NFL and KFFL have had the highest rating otherwise. Funston and Bleacher and ESPN were ultimately dropped for poor performance. Michaels blog was consistently as good as analyzer last year but has not performed as well this year. Yahoo composite rankings last year did as well or better than Analyzer just about every week with only a handful of weeks that the Analyzer was superior but this year, Analyzer has proved more accurate than the Yahoo composite score. However, things may change :)

In the past, those teams that had 4 or more of the seven systems to pick them had a greater than 70% chance of a breakout game and most were above average. Of those with 3 or fewer picks, less than half on most weeks and less than a third on most weeks had breakouts. For those following along, the Analyzer has done okay with picks that weren't selected by many other systems.

This week, NE, CHI and SF were selected by all 7 systems. NYJ, BAL and HOU were picked by 6 of the systems. Michaels blog did not pick NYJ or BAL and the NFL projection system did not pick HOU. As I had said in my top 10 list, mathematically HOU doesn't matchup well vs. TEN and I think NFL is strictly a math based system. But, as with the other systems, awfully hard not to imagine they'll destroy TEN.

ARI was selected by 5 systems. The Analyzer (has given up on them) and the FFtoolbox did not pick ARI. No matter what the stats say they should be doing as a defense each week, they've had one break out in seven games now. They're getting sacks and turnovers which is the greatest predictor of defensive TDs and suppressing points against but for whatever reason, it's just not translating that way for ARI. Still, 5 systems picked them and they have all the trappings of a solid defense.

CIN, CAR, DAL and SEA were selected by 4 systems. DAL and SEA were not selected by the Analyzer. DAL does have a top 10 sacks/turnover ratio but has only had 2 break out weeks in 11 games. PHI has been the second most generous team to play against and with injuries to McCoy and Vick and DeSean, it's possible that we should have ranked this higher. But I had dropped DAL for poor performance as a defense and the other factors may not be as critical. Despite Bryce Brown's fumbles, PHI only gave WAS (a better defense than DAL) 7 points last week. Use your best judgement.

SEA faces CHI and also has a top 10 sacks/turnover breakout but were dropped from top 10 for having only 1 breakout in last 5 games. CHI has given out a number of breakout weeks and Cutler isn't exactly sticky fingers with the ball. That 4 systems selected SEA however is worth considering.

DEN was selected by 3 systems (Yahoo, Michaels and FFix). They had a low end to/s ratio. They are the third best defense this year but TB is the second worst team to play against giving an average of only 3.82 points per game to opposing defenses. In the past 5 weeks, TB has given out a zero, -1, -3, a 2 and a 13. Scary if you ask me.

NYG and CLE were selected by the Analyzer but only one other system. FFtoolbox chose NYG and KFFL chose CLE (and ranked them 3rd!). The Giants face WAS and have the second highest sacks/to metric in the game and are second only to CHI in sacks/turnovers obtained. They've had 5 of their last 6 weeks as a defense as a breakout game although WAS has only given one breakout in the last 5 games. It's a sketchier one, I admit, because of WAS's offensive power and lack of generosity as an opponent but I gave the nod here to the quality of the defense and the very high sacks/to ratio.

CLE faces OAK and has the 8th best sacks/turnover metric. CLE has had 4 of their last 6 games as above average and 3 break outs facing an OAK team that has given 3 straight break out weeks. CLE just abused PIT for 21 points although admittedly things were pretty unhinged there with Big Ben's injury. Still, only one other system predicted a good game for CLE so please approach with caution.

BUF vs JAC was selected by two systems, NFL and FFtoolbox. BUF has had 2 above average weeks in a row but those are the only two since week 6. JAC had been quite generous in the middle weeks but less consistent the past few as Chad Henne has discovered his arm is still working. A risky play and one that the Analyzer didn't put as top 10.

GB was selected by Michaels and ranked 4th highest this week. GB just came off a -3 outing to NYG and plays MIN and has the 11th best sacks/turnover metric. MIN has given 5 of their last 6 games as above average outings but only 2 break outs and GB has had 2 of their last 5 as above average. I actually don't think it 's a terrible pick myself from a sacks/turnover perspective and a little surprised that others didn't pick it up. I didn't either and only one system picked them. Approach with caution.

Isn't this fun :)

Good luck everyone!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:10 am

A Cautionary Tale

I've been snickering along watching NE running backs for a few weeks now. They've had the fortune of a very nice rushing matchup streak all year. If you take the Analyzer's rushing defense rankings (in parentheses), Ridley has produced:

Week 1: TEN (26) 125 yds, 1 TD
Week 2: ARI (14) 71 yards, 0 TD
Week 3: BAL (23) 37 yards, 0 td
Week 4: BUF (32) 106 yards, 2 td
Week 5: DEN (7) 151 yards 1 TD
Week 6 SEA (13) 34 yards, 0 TD
Week 7 NYJ (28) 65, 0 TD
Week 8 STL (27) 127, 1 TD
Week 9 bye
Week 10 BUF (32) 98, 1 TD
Week 11 IND (24) 28, 1 TD
Week 12 NYJ (28) 97, 1 TD

But now...
Week 13: MIA (6)
Week 14: HOU (1)
Week 15: SF (2)
Week 16: JAC (30)
Week 17 MIA (6)

Other than week 16, if matchup is important, it starts to look a little scary. Ridley is a classic 'matchup' player who has had the good fortune of only playing 3 teams that are top 15 rushing defenses. Against those top 15 defenses, he has only 1 TD and one game above 100 yards. In his other 8 games, he has faced nothing but bottom 10 rushing defenses. He's scored TDs in all of them except vs. BAL and NYJ in week 7. It will be very interesting indeed to see if Ridley falls off the fiscal cliff during the playoffs. He did well vs. DEN which gives some hope but truly, the next 3 weeks will test his new 'studliness' mantle. If he does well, I will also give him the studly mantle. But I'm more curious than certain at this stage.

I said this last year about DeMarco Murray. He was brought into the lineup last year just as DAL started facing 4 weeks of bottom 10 rushing defenses and he did so well that he became the starting RB. But he has since struggled against top and midling defenses.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby shennessy » Thu Nov 29, 2012 10:51 am

Moreno, V. Ballard, or Dwyer based on the matchup? Looks like TB might be a stiff D but lately have been giving up some rushing TDs.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Nov 29, 2012 7:09 pm

shennessy wrote:Moreno, V. Ballard, or Dwyer based on the matchup? Looks like TB might be a stiff D but lately have been giving up some rushing TDs.


There are many (more) experienced folks out there that can help on the regular who to start/bench posts for such questions. But for my opinion, Dwyer is likely the best matchup, not likely to be in committee any more as Ballard is in. None of the three seem very promising. Knowshon faces a very stiff TB rushing defense (fewest yards in the league) and Ballard is timesharing with Brown.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby sirsydney » Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:37 pm

I currently have NE & DEN, but I'm not crazy about the DEN week 15/16 matchups. Should I grab the NYG now? Denver has looked good. Other DSTs available are CAR, BUF, DET, SD, MIA. I don't like the NE vs. SF matchup, especially with Kaep playing well. Will DET play well against ARI on the road in week 15?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 5:01 pm

sirsydney wrote:I currently have NE & DEN, but I'm not crazy about the DEN week 15/16 matchups. Should I grab the NYG now? Denver has looked good. Other DSTs available are CAR, BUF, DET, SD, MIA. I don't like the NE vs. SF matchup, especially with Kaep playing well. Will DET play well against ARI on the road in week 15?


NE vs. HOU isn't very fun either in week 14. I'm not quite sold on Kaep yet but SF has been terrible as an opponent with only one break out game since week 3. DEN vs. OAK looks like it'd be fine and I think DEN vs. CLE probably okay. It's DEN vs. BAL that may be troublesome. BAL hasn't given out many points in the past month. The giants have NO, ATL and BAL during that stretch so not avoiding BAL altogether. NO has now given two break out weeks in a row but ATL has only given one break out week in the past 7 weeks now. About as cold as BAL as an opponent. I think I'd probably stick with DEN. You may have a stickier middle bracket but the giants don't have something spectacular coming up like a KC, PHI or ARI outing.

I'm not sure about DET. They've had no breakouts all year but ARI is now nearly as good as KC as an opponent and Lindley has not provided much spark. I doubt anyone has DET as a defense so you have time yet to see if ARI continues to produce double digits. With your defenses, I think you may want to hold steady before dropping one to an opponent that then beats you with them.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby sirsydney » Fri Nov 30, 2012 5:03 pm

Thanks. That's kind of what I was thinking as well. Kolb would be back by week 15 I'm sure, so ARI might not be so generous by the time that matchup rolls around.
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