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Defense Analyzer - Week 13

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Fri Nov 30, 2012 8:45 pm

I'm so torn between Arizona and Carolina this week. Ungh.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby lost787 » Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:08 pm

Very interesting post. I'm in quite the bind as Seattle's D probably won't get me beyond this week. I was hoping to identify the top team on the list below for weeks 14-17. Who would you recommend from this list of available D/St, I can pickup about 3 to play the matchups. Thanks I think this is the best info I've seen yet.

Chargers
Cardinals
Vikings
Browns
Rams
Jets
falcons
panthers
bucs
skins
cowboys
bills
titans
colts
chiefs
eagles
saints
jags
raiders
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Sun Dec 02, 2012 12:28 am

petrieslastword wrote:I'm so torn between Arizona and Carolina this week. Ungh.


Sorry for late reply. I think that with 'recent events', KC could be a mess this week or they could be inspired to play great ball. It's tough to guess. Both are away and ARI plays indoors at the jets and both have been generous to defenses of late. ARI has been good on sacks/to and I think it's the 'safer' bet from that standpoint but I obviously ranked CAR higher than them on the lists. ARI was chosen by more lists than CAR was and met top 10 for sacks/to ratio. I think either is a close bet so I'd go with your gut.

lost787 wrote: I was hoping to identify the top team on the list below for weeks 14-17. Who would you recommend from this list of available D/St, I can pickup about 3 to play the matchups.
Chargers
Cardinals
Vikings
Browns
Rams
Jets
falcons
panthers
bucs
skins
cowboys
bills
titans
colts
chiefs
eagles
saints
jags
raiders


If you can pick 3 of those, matchups vs. KC, ARI and SD, possibly jets are most reliable. I worry about PHI as a matchup going forward but with injuries they arent bad either.

Week 14: SEA plays ARI, CLE plays KC in week 14, TB plays PHI, I'd favor SEA here.
Week 15: Titans play jets and OAK plays KC. I'd probably pick TEN here unless OAK was really superb.
Week 16: SD plays jets, jets obviously play SD, IND plays KC. Jets would be my pref here over SD or IND but it's close.
Week 17: BUF plays jets and looks like the only matchup option there. OAK plays SD

SD looks like a good defense for your last two weeks, they have jets and OAK both of which are pretty favorable matchups. SEA vs. ARI looks fine to me for week 14. Only question is then if you pick up titans vs. Jets or if you want to max/min for the last week.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Sun Dec 02, 2012 12:51 am

prince_45243 wrote:
petrieslastword wrote:I'm so torn between Arizona and Carolina this week. Ungh.


Sorry for late reply. I think that with 'recent events', KC could be a mess this week or they could be inspired to play great ball. It's tough to guess. Both are away and ARI plays indoors at the jets and both have been generous to defenses of late. ARI has been good on sacks/to and I think it's the 'safer' bet from that standpoint but I obviously ranked CAR higher than them on the lists. ARI was chosen by more lists than CAR was and met top 10 for sacks/to ratio. I think either is a close bet so I'd go with your gut.


Yeah, this has me worried. It could go either way, they could react by going all out, or could bomb.

Blah. I'll be agonizing over this until the morning.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Sun Dec 02, 2012 7:25 pm

Boy did I make the wrong call with Carolina over Arizona. Lol
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby big.d57 » Mon Dec 03, 2012 12:34 am

What two defenses would you say are the best for week 15-16 Prince? I have Denver, Jets (picked them up this week for Arizona), San Francisco as my defenses (we start two). I have a bye in week 14 due to being a top 2 seed. San Francisco always has potential to put up monster points but against New England I'm scared. I have Brady but to me that doesn't make a difference because I am still trying to start the defenses that put up most the most points and I think I trust Brady more than my 49ers defense. Denver is playing a Baltimore team who has protection issues and Flacco can make poor decisions at times though he is playing at home. I will probably drop the Jets defense after today just so I have an extra roster spot. Some of the best defenses on the wire are

Week 15
San Diego @ Carolina
Oakland vs. Kansas City
Carolina vs. San Diego
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Tennessee vs. Jets
New York Giants @ Atlanta

Week 16
Carolina vs. Oakland
Indianapolis @ KC
San Diego @ NYJ
New York Giants @ Baltimore

I am planning on keeping Denver and San Francisco. San Francisco plays @ Seattle in week 16 and Denver plays against Cleveland at home. Which defenses would you take for week 15 and 16? I know this is a pretty in depth question and is still a while away but I just wanted to see what thoughts you have as of now. Thanks for all your help and work on the defense analyzer.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Dec 03, 2012 4:38 pm

petrieslastword wrote:Boy did I make the wrong call with Carolina over Arizona. Lol


I'm so sorry. I was worried that KC could play inspired ball.

big.d57 wrote:What two defenses would you say are the best for week 15-16 Prince? I have Denver, Jets (picked them up this week for Arizona), San Francisco as my defenses (we start two). I have a bye in week 14 due to being a top 2 seed. San Francisco always has potential to put up monster points but against New England I'm scared. I have Brady but to me that doesn't make a difference because I am still trying to start the defenses that put up most the most points and I think I trust Brady more than my 49ers defense. Denver is playing a Baltimore team who has protection issues and Flacco can make poor decisions at times though he is playing at home. I will probably drop the Jets defense after today just so I have an extra roster spot. Some of the best defenses on the wire are

Week 15
San Diego @ Carolina
Oakland vs. Kansas City
Carolina vs. San Diego
Minnesota @ St. Louis
Tennessee vs. Jets
New York Giants @ Atlanta

Week 16
Carolina vs. Oakland
Indianapolis @ KC
San Diego @ NYJ
New York Giants @ Baltimore

I am planning on keeping Denver and San Francisco. San Francisco plays @ Seattle in week 16 and Denver plays against Cleveland at home. Which defenses would you take for week 15 and 16? I know this is a pretty in depth question and is still a while away but I just wanted to see what thoughts you have as of now. Thanks for all your help and work on the defense analyzer.


Congrats on your bye week. It's harder than most people think.

Image

I agree that NE is going to be scary for SF. They have given nothing but terrible weeks to every defense in the league this year.
It feels a little strange seeing NYG on your ww and not simply telling you to grab them. Five of their last 6 weeks have been breakouts although how they'll do vs. WAS is an interesting litmus test. But they really are a great defense (as is DEN and SF). Surely between three studly defenses, you would probably be fine through your playoffs. However, I think what you're asking is if there's anything even more reliable.

I haven't done a formal analysis on those two weeks as yet but looking at the spreadsheet above as a basic outline, I think CAR vs. SD is statistically one of the better picks out there although it relies on Rivers continuing to implode. With CIN, they have now given 6 out of their last 7 games as double digits which is as good an opponent as ARI, better than PHI, KC or NYJ in that same time frame (the jets face them in week 16). The others probably aren't worth mentioning even though starting two. But week 15, you could replace SF with CAR or the giants vs. ATL. SF vs. NE does not look very good to me.

For that matter, SF vs. SEA in week 16 isn't pumpkin pie. For week 16, the jets do play SD, IND plays KC but I think KC may be improving somewhat and I'm hesitant to recommend with the confidence I did earlier this year. It's hard for me to do an individual write-up as I usually use the recent performance in my thinking as well and we're several weeks away. But I think picking up CAR vs. SD isn't completely crazy talk given that CAR has had some good games this year. For week 16, Jets vs. SD or NYG vs. BAL although those are probably comparable to SF vs. SEA.

Good luck,
-d
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby petrieslastword » Mon Dec 03, 2012 5:11 pm

prince_45243 wrote:
petrieslastword wrote:Boy did I make the wrong call with Carolina over Arizona. Lol


I'm so sorry. I was worried that KC could play inspired ball.


It's all good. Andrew Luck and Calvin Johnson saved my season! Lol
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby cabrego » Tue Dec 04, 2012 2:50 pm

Do you have the analyzer for week 14? It's awesome

Sent from my SPH-L710 using Tapatalk 2
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 13

Postby chiroacademy » Tue Dec 04, 2012 3:02 pm

I am in the playoffs YEA! But I play a team that beat me twice, BOO! He beat me by 1 point and 2 points the second time so I am expecting a very close match! Need help with picking a D. Every Point counts!

I have NE

Available on WW: Note: I am 10th on the WW so the team I want may not be there so please can you recommend a couple teams,

NYJ
CLE
SD
STL
ATL
MIN
GB
CAR
WASH
BUF
TN
DAL
IND

Thanks for your help
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