Thanks for the help on mine.
Not sure how "desperate" you are, but unless you are in a must-win situation against a team that is far superior to yours, you're going to want to play it as safe as possible. IF you truly are in an extremely desperate situation, go with a high risk/high reward lineup.
Denarius Moore - I agree with you that he's been a bit off as of late. And with Joe Haden shadowing him this Sunday, I don't like his chances for a rebound.
I would stay far away from the Indianapolis backfield right now. Ballard's involvement, including targets, has been on a decline as of late; and it's been a while since he's gotten into the end zone. I would expect a timeshare between he and Donald Brown this weekend. It's tending in that direction, anyways.
Two words describe Mike Wallace's fantasy value this Sunday: Charlie Batch. Last week Wallace was able to haul in only one of the seven "targets" from Batch. The Ravens - albeit with slightly clipped wings - will have their way with Batch and the Steelers Sunday afternoon. Stay away from Wallace.
With Percy Harvin out again, I could understand being tempted to take a flyer on Jarius Wright, considering he led the team in targets and receptions last week. Green Bay's defense just isn't the same without Clay Matthews, but I don't trust Christian Ponder's consistency, or lack-thereof. I'd call Jarius a boom/bust this weekend.
It seems it may be time to avoid Julian Edelman, as Josh McDaniels is perpetually switching things around. Just when Lloyd had been brushed aside following multiple weeks of forgettable performances, he was back in as the second wide out last week instead of Edelman. That means I can't trust what they are going to do from week to week with Edelman (exactly how Belichick wants it for opposing coaches, btw). If you get points for return yards, and you want to gamble he's back to being the 2nd wide-out this weekend, Edelman becomes high risk/reward for you against Miami.
Speaking of points for returns, T.Y. Hilton is now an option only if you do get points for returns. Starting T.Y. is a shaky scenario because last week things turned around as far as targets go. He was targeted higher than Avery in week 11, but last week his targets fell to 3, while Avery's krept up to 8. It seems Hilton becomes more risky going forward; his fantasy points last week were boosted by his 75-yard TD return.
There's no more high risk/reward option here than Santana Moss. Despite having low targets and touches, he seems to find pay dirt almost every week. Last week it was on his only target/reception. If that's not reason to hesitate, I don't know what is. The guy has 8 targets over the last three games... total. Not a safe play by any stretch.
It's tough to know if the Panthers will use Tolbert as a goal-line back again now that Stewart is out with the high ankle sprain. Even so, it's hard to put your chips down on a player who is sharing possible goal-line duties with QB Cam Newton. This is a big risk in my opinion.
Kenny Britt has big play potential, but with a new offensive coordinator in Tennessee and facing the Texans' defense, which has been worse than normal as of late. I certainly wouldn't call it a safe play (especially with how inaccurate Locker was in much of last week's loss), but I could see Britt as a high risk/high reward option this week in a PPR format. Two questions that have to be answered for that: Will Locker be accurate, especially with the likes of J.J. Watt in his face? and, Will Houston remain a bit shaky on defense again this week?
Jeremy Kerley is also someone I would stay away from. He's Sanchez' only real target, but it's Sanchez. I don't trust him or his receivers, even after some decent weeks mid-season. Last week was an embarrassment, and I shy from playing players on dreadful teams. On top of that, the Cardinals have the #4 passing defense in the league. No thanks.
If you're talking about a safe bet, I would make one on Brandon Stokley. He's had more targets in his last 5 games (23) than he did in the previous six (21). Take it from a guy who owns Decker and Thomas: Peyton isn't afraid to throw Stokley the ball. He's looking for his old chum every time he's being pressured. Stokley even caught 5 TD's this season, which isn't bad at all. Now, take that and add the worst passing defense in the league: Tampa Bay. Peyton will have a field day against the Buccaneers, but will still need to keep throwing the ball for two reasons: 1) Moreno won't be a strong weapon against Tampa's #1-ranked run defense, and 2) Freeman's arm and Martin's legs will likely find a way to keep the game relatively close. I like big days from almost every receiving player on the Broncos tomorrow.
I agree with you on playing Davone Bess. His targets have been high all season long, and he's quietly put together some nice fantasy outings, especially in the PPR format. That being said, I would also start Brian Hartline right along side him. With Hartline and Bess you're talking about two receivers who are each in the top 20 of targets (many times higher) almost every week, and Miami loves to throw the ball. Then consider Tannehill will be throwing from behind against the New England Patriots, who just happen to have the #30 ranked passing defense. I feel this will be a big day for either Hartline or Bess, if not both. I would roll with both of them. As I said, I start Decker and Thomas every week, and it usually works out nicely; I feel similarly about Hartline and Bess in PPR against NE this weekend.
THE SAFE PLAY
WR1 - Brian Hartline
WR2 - Davone Bess
Flex - Brandon Stokley (or, if you get points for return yards, maybe Julian Edelman, To a lesser extent, Hilton)
HIGH RISK/HIGH REWARD
WR1 - Santana Moss
WR2 - Kenny Britt
Flex -Jarius Wright (or maybe a flyer on Tolbert)
Best of luck to you
Standard Format: Aaron Rodgers, Josh Freeman; Doug Martin, Jamaal Charles, Maurice Jones-Drew, Vick Ballard, Pierre Thomas; AJ Green, Demaryius Thomas, Eric Decker, Stevie Johnson; Jason Witten, Vernon Davis; Stephen Gostkowski; Chicago