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Defense Analyzer - Week 14

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Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:10 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=530754

Post Mortem:
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Ugh! Terrible week for the analyzer. Only 3 break out games predicted and only 5 above average. Every other system beat the analyzer this week.

NE, CHI and SF were selected by all 7 and none had a breakout game although 2 just above median score of 5
NYJ, BAL and HOU were selected by 6 and two had a breakout game and all 3 above median
ARI chosen by 5 and had a breakout game
CAR, CIN, DAL and SEA chosen by 4 and 1 break out and 2 above median
Of 11 teams chosen by 4 or more, only 3 had breakout games and 8 had above median scores

DEN chosen by 3 and had above median
BUF and CLE chosen by 2 and one above median
GB by 1 and below median.

Of those chosen by 3 or fewer, no break out games and 2 median out of those 4.

Not a great week for the analyzer and the first week this season that it was the worst of all systems. Sorry folks, some weeks it just doesn't add up.

DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

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And performance by week:
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And how generous an opponent has been by week:
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For the first time, PHI now moved above KC as how generous an opponent they are although even then, PHI did not produce a breakout week. The Jets, ARI and SD have been the most generous of recent weeks.

Final Rankings: And I thought last week was slim pickings....
1) SEA vs. ARI 8 of the last 9 games by ARI has led to a break out game. Although SEA has only had 1 break out in the last 5 weeks, they do have 3 above averages in that time frame.
2) DEN vs. OAK - OAK has given 3 of the last 5 as breakouts although only a 4 last week to CLE. Despite cooling off some, DEN is still 5 above averages and 3 breakouts in last 5 games.
3) CIN vs. DAL - CIN has had 4 breakout weeks in a row. DAL has cooled off considerably with no breakouts now in 5 weeks but the pickings are slim this week.
4) NYG vs. NO - NO has given two breakouts in a row playing a NYG team that also has cooled off as a defense with 3 good and 2 bad games recently.
5) CHI vs. MIN - CHI has definitely slowed up as a defense with only 2 breakouts in the last 5 weeks, one above average and two below average. MIN has given 2 breakouts and 3 above average in the same time frame.
6) ARI vs. SEA - ARI makes it back into the top 10. 2 of last 3 weeks with breakouts but SEA has been playing extremely well with two below average games. Tough call but there's not much out there.
7) PIT vs. SD - PIT has only had one break out game but 3 of 5 possibly 4 above average games playing a SD team that has given out 7 of it's last 8 as breakout games. Not a very good sack/to ratio but the trends put this into the top 10.
8) SF vs. MIA - SF has definitely blown hot and cold this year and only 2 breakouts in recent weeks. MIA has given 3 of their last 5 as above average however and hopefully SF is still a solid enough defense to make this one fly.
9) SD vs. PIT- SD has had 3 of last 5 games as breakout weeks and PIT has given 3 of their last 5 as breakouts. The sacks/to isn't very good and this one feels like a soft one.
10) CLE vs. KC - CLE has only had 1 break out in the past 5 weeks and 2 above average. KC had some inspired play this past week but not sure it will last. Prior to this past week, 5 above averages although no break outs now in 3 weeks. Lowered enthusiasm but otherwise a solid sack/to ratio.

Riskier:
TB vs. PHI - TB has had only one break out in the last 4 weeks and PHI has cooled off since Vick was injured But still has given 5 above average weeks. The sacks/to may be artificially high here and with recent TB performance, I couldn't pull the trigger to put this up there.

BAL vs. WAS - BAL has had four above average games and 3 break outs recently against some very good teams. WAS, however, has been ice cold to opponents including the NYG with 4 below average games. Almost put this up there but wow, WAS has been very tough as an opponent

ATL vs. CAR has a top 10 sacks/to and ATL has had two breakouts in the last 5 but CAR in the last 3 weeks has been cold as an opponent. CAR has had some easier opponents however but this didn't get high enough to make the cut.

NE vs. HOU - NE is now the number 2 defense with four of their last 5 as above average with 3 breakouts. However, HOU has been the third worst team to face this year with no breakouts given all year.

JAC at NYJ - JAC is the second worst defense this year and facing a very generous NYJ team but with the benching of Sanchez and JAC doing so terrible, I couldn't quite put it up there.

I could use some help from the forum if someone wants to adjust this lineup. Good luck all!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:14 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are only 7th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 11.8 points per game and have now faced the 4th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 2nd by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 8.4 points per game and have had a medium to easy toughness of schedule.

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ATL boosted up with it's 5 picks from Brees and BAL also pulled higher than NFL rankings based on limited passing TDs. KC may not have yielded many yards but gave 3 passing TDs to cam last week and stay in the bottom 10. Most of the rushing rankings are in line with the NFL rankings with STL being an exception due to rushing TDs yielded.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 04, 2012 11:23 pm

Path of Least Resistance
Here I calculate the offensive passing and rushing power of each team, the relative ease of the passing and rushing defense they face for the week which is presented in the first figure. Then to find their path of least resistance, I subtract the passing rank from the rushing rank for that week. The principle here is that if you have a QB/WR of roughly equal quality to the running back, then the path of least resistance suggest which will end up doing better. If very 'negative' this favors passing. If very positive, this favors rushing.

If you have very different quality of players, say Drew Brees and Pierre Thomas. Then you're best off sticking with the better player.
The following table shows raw offensive power compared to how much their match-up gives up to defenses.

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Denver has the best matchup this week for passing from the offense they have to the average value of points that OAK gives out. Rushing wise, WAS has the highest sum although mostly because of WAS's power on rushing and less from how easy BAL is.

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Despite DEN topping the passing power ranking, their matchup vs. OAK is also favorable to the rush. Still a solid path of least resistance to passing. But despite Stark's recent TD, GB's path of resistance in DET is far favorable through the air. CAR faces a much tougher passing matchup vs. ATL than they do on the ground although Cam is capable of both and should be started regardless.

I'm not sure that this is something that has worked very well as a system but I offer it due to prior interest.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby big.d57 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 12:10 am

What do you think about the injuries to Urlacher and Jennings? Obviously a big hit to the Bears in real life, maybe a few less forced fumbles/ interceptions?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby sfninersfan1981 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:05 am

prince_45243 wrote:9) SD vs. PIT- SD has had 3 of last 5 games as breakout weeks and PIT has given 3 of their last 5 as breakouts. The sacks/to isn't very good and this one feels like a soft one.


First of all, I want to say that this is my favorite weekly post on the forum. Whenever I'm at a loss; this thread is my tiebreaker. I noticed SD's breakout weeks as well. Which is why I've been considering ditching the Jets DST this week for SD; not only for this week but for matchups ahead at home vs Car in Week 15 and @NYJ in Week 16. It's not that I don't believe in the Jets' defense; it's that I think their offense (QB flux too) is so bad that it hinders the defense. Am I wrong to consider this?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby big.d57 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 1:08 am

sfninersfan1981 wrote:
prince_45243 wrote:9) SD vs. PIT- SD has had 3 of last 5 games as breakout weeks and PIT has given 3 of their last 5 as breakouts. The sacks/to isn't very good and this one feels like a soft one.


First of all, I want to say that this is my favorite weekly post on the forum. Whenever I'm at a loss; this thread is my tiebreaker. I noticed SD's breakout weeks as well. Which is why I've been considering ditching the Jets DST this week for SD; not only for this week but for matchups ahead at home vs Car in Week 15 and @NYJ in Week 16. It's not that I don't believe in the Jets' defense; it's that I think their offense (QB flux too) is so bad that it hinders the defense. Am I wrong to consider this?


I agree with you ninersfan, I think that San Diego has a pretty good schedule coming up with Carolina and the Jets. I would be a little worried about Carolina though since Newton has started to find his game and been a stiff opponent as of late. I would definitely use them against the Jets though week 16 regardless of who they play at QB .
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby chiroacademy » Wed Dec 05, 2012 8:44 am

I am in the playoffs YEA! But I play a team that beat me twice, BOO! He beat me by 1 point and 2 points the second time so I am expecting a very close match! Need help with picking a D. Every Point counts!

I have NE and CLE for a D/ST

Available on WW:

NYJ
SD
STL


Thanks for your help
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 05, 2012 4:41 pm

Just to flesh out the SD breakouts:
Week 9: 25 vs. KC
Week 10: 0 TB
Week 11: 14 DEN
Week 12: 6 BAL
Week 13: 14 CIN

KC is not unexpected.
DEN was unexpected as DEN had not given a breakout since week 6. SD got 3 sacks 2 turnovers, a safety and TD
BAL beat them pretty badly as did TB
CIN 1 sack 3 turnovers plus a defensive TD

Sacks and turnovers provide opportunities for D/ST TDs

CAR has given up 10 picks and 6 fumbles in 12 games and 28 sacks in 12 games.
Comparable to CIN with 11 picks and 4 fumbles and 26 sacks

The better offenses were:
BAL has given up only 7 picks and 2fumbles and 26 sacks
TB only 7 picks and 2 fumbles and 16 sacks
DEN has given up only 8 picks and 7 fumbles and 16 sacks so a surprise for sure

But against those, SD did not fare well.

But SD has done well against teams comparable to CIN (like CAR).
PIT has only had 8 picks but have had 7 fumbles and 23 sacks which is comparable to DEN level. Not as good as BAL and TB of course but perhaps a DEN like surprise.
Jets have given up 10 picks only 6 fumbles but 27 sacks, again comparable to a CIN level of turnovers.

Anyway, it was enough for me to put SD in top 10 though it feels squishy given PIT's recent solid play.

/reading tea leaves is stressful
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby Ahzzy » Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:03 pm

Being the 1st week of playoffs I'm feeling nervous starting PIT defense. They haven't really done much this year, they're actually ranked 26th in my league. Hoping having Palamalu back and healthy and the team fighting for playoff contention will churn up a few extra sacks and turnovers against Phyllis Rivers.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby JDNaumiec » Wed Dec 05, 2012 9:46 pm

Better Arizona away at Seattle (and I agree that Seattle has been playing better) than TB at home against Philly? Arizona seems like the more consistent play, but with TB landing at #3 on your initial list, that didn't give you enough reason to place them in the final top 10?

Gotta find a replacement for Houston...and I need big points to win - my opponent is projected to score a ton.
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