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Defense Analyzer - Week 14

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby petrieslastword » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:18 pm

Are there any defenses I should be looking at in preparation for weeks 15 and 16? Most of the "studs" or even mid levels are taken, and I've been playing roulette, but I'm considering dropping a mid-tier player or 2 to stash D and be ready.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby JDNaumiec » Wed Dec 05, 2012 11:55 pm

petrieslastword wrote:Are there any defenses I should be looking at in preparation for weeks 15 and 16? Most of the "studs" or even mid levels are taken, and I've been playing roulette, but I'm considering dropping a mid-tier player or 2 to stash D and be ready.

I looked at that myself and I came up with 2 options for each week that should be available in your league as well:

Week 15: Oakland (vs KC) or Cincy (@ Philly)
Week 16: Indy (@ KC) or Wash (@ Philly)

Oak scored 14 points in my league last time against KC and Wash scored 16 last time against Philly.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby petrieslastword » Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:14 am

Do you think with Sanchez being named as the starter still, JAC might be a better option than you rated them?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby cabrego » Thu Dec 06, 2012 12:35 am

I like JAC this week too.

I am surprised to see Cleveland so low in the rankings, NFL and fftoolbox has them in top 5. I think I am going to roll the dice with them..

thanks for your efforts!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby JRM4833 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 2:17 pm

It seems that you're not very high on the Jets defense this week against Jax. Any particular reason why? I'm also considering Atlanta or TB (I have the Giants currently). I don't think I can bring myself to start Jax, even against the Jets, in the playoffs.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby jmog » Thu Dec 06, 2012 8:12 pm

I only have 2 options this week...

Houston (against NE)

or

Minnesota (against CHI)

Your rankings has them pretty darn close...what do you think?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby wtr23 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:50 pm

I've been having trouble deciding which defense to start this week. Seattle has been underperforming most of the year, but they are facing a run down, burned out Arizona team that everyone was shocked to see undefeated after week 4. Since then they have lost every game in sight, while allowing some nice totals for opposing defenses.

I also picked up Cincinnati D when the faced KC back in week 11, but since then I have been hesitant to start them and have been burned, 2 weeks in a row with double digits in my league. This week they face the cowboys at home, there should be plenty of chances for turnovers in this one. I hate leaving Cincinnati on the bench, but it looks to me that Seattle has a better chance at shutting down their opponent. Who do I start this week?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby big.d57 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 10:58 pm

wtr23 wrote:I've been having trouble deciding which defense to start this week. Seattle has been underperforming most of the year, but they are facing a run down, burned out Arizona team that everyone was shocked to see undefeated after week 4. Since then they have lost every game in sight, while allowing some nice totals for opposing defenses.

I also picked up Cincinnati D when the faced KC back in week 11, but since then I have been hesitant to start them and have been burned, 2 weeks in a row with double digits in my league. This week they face the cowboys at home, there should be plenty of chances for turnovers in this one. I hate leaving Cincinnati on the bench, but it looks to me that Seattle has a better chance at shutting down their opponent. Who do I start this week?


To me you've gotta start Seattle. Arizona has HUGE protection issues which will lead to a ton of sacks/turnovers.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Dec 06, 2012 11:04 pm

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Comparisons:
Wow, a lot of disagreement on the rankings between the different sites.
SEA and SF were the only ones picked by all 7 and were ranked highly by most everyone
DEN, PIT and CLE were ranked by 6 different site, NFL did not pick DEN or PIT while Michaels did not pick CLE
CHI was picked by 5 sites but not NFL, KFFL or Michaels blog
CIN and NYJ were picked by 4 different ones. CIN not picked by NFL, Michaels blog or FFtoolbox
and NYJ not picked by NFL, Michaels or FFtoolbox
Traditionally, those with 4 or more picks have fared well. There's a lot of consistency this week in that NFL and Michaels appear to be picking away from some of those that the others are picking.

ARI, SD and TB were chosen by only 3 and the analyzer did not pick TB
NYG, STL, BAL and NE were chosen by 2
MIA, BUF, OAK, MIN, DAL, JAC, HOU and ATL were selected by only 1 of the lists.

Thus far those chosen by 3 or fewer have not fared as well as those chosen by 4.
The analyzer did not take the NYJ who were ranked by four lists with only Michaels,NFL and Analyzer not taking it. They had a low sacks/to ratio but the jets do have three of their last 4 games as breakout games and JAC has given 3 of their last 4 as breakout or near break out at 9 points. I think that's probably a miss from the analyzer and I think that is a solid pick.

TB was chosen by 3 and had the third best sacks/to ratio but only one break out in the last four games and PHI having cooled off considerably since Vick was benched. I think it's not a bad pick however.

STL was picked by 2 and have had 2 break out weeks in a row and now play buffalo who have given 4 of their last 5 as above average with 2 breakouts. Could be a sneaky pick but had a low sacks/to ratio so I passed on it.

BAL plays WAS and although 3 of last 4 as breakouts WAS has been very cold as an opponent and it seems like most passed on this one.

NE plays HOU and although again NE is a solid defense, HOU has not given a breakout week all year.

big.d57 wrote:What do you think about the injuries to Urlacher and Jennings? Obviously a big hit to the Bears in real life, maybe a few less forced fumbles/ interceptions?

Indeed, CHI has cooled off as a defense and I think it'll be important to keep checking their performance.

chiroacademy wrote:I have NE and CLE for a D/ST
Available on WW: NYJ, SD, STL

It's tough but I'm between CLE and NYJ of your options. I think I may have missed a NYJ call this week and CLE makes my top 10 mostly as playing KC who have cooled off. I guess I'd tip to NYJ of those.

Ahzzy wrote:Being the 1st week of playoffs I'm feeling nervous starting PIT defense. They haven't really done much this year, they're actually ranked 26th in my league. Hoping having Palamalu back and healthy and the team fighting for playoff contention will churn up a few extra sacks and turnovers against Phyllis Rivers.


6 of their last 7 games that SD h as played, they have given breakout weeks. And some are to lousier defenses than PIT. It's a pretty good option imho and almost all other lists included PIT

JDNaumiec wrote:Better Arizona away at Seattle (and I agree that Seattle has been playing better) than TB at home against Philly? Arizona seems like the more consistent play, but with TB landing at #3 on your initial list, that didn't give you enough reason to place them in the final top 10?

Gotta find a replacement for Houston...and I need big points to win - my opponent is projected to score a ton.


Mmmmm....okay yes, you make some really good points there. I don't actually look at home and away as I found that it was too hard to keep that kind of performance straight in my head. I'm going by stats and performance and a bit of gut feeling. TB was my next highest to get onto the top 10 but remember that Vick himself was responsible for over 90% of PHI's turnovers. Without him there, I think the s/to ratio gets whacky.

petrieslastword wrote:Do you think with Sanchez being named as the starter still, JAC might be a better option than you rated them?


JAX is the second worst defense in the league without a single breakout this year but I did love that Rexy stayed with Sanchez. 5 of NYJ's last 6 games have given up a breakout and the OAK vs KC experiment was also pretty good. I think that it's a bit of a gamble. Sanchez will be playing for his career which could be good or bad. I think if the NYJ's can't start him, who the heck would? He'll go the way of David Carr.

wtr23 wrote:I've been having trouble deciding which defense to start this week. Seattle has been underperforming most of the year, but they are facing a run down, burned out Arizona team that everyone was shocked to see undefeated after week 4. Since then they have lost every game in sight, while allowing some nice totals for opposing defenses.

I also picked up Cincinnati D when the faced KC back in week 11, but since then I have been hesitant to start them and have been burned, 2 weeks in a row with double digits in my league. This week they face the cowboys at home, there should be plenty of chances for turnovers in this one. I hate leaving Cincinnati on the bench, but it looks to me that Seattle has a better chance at shutting down their opponent. Who do I start this week?


I ranked them 1 and 3 and I do tip to SEA and 5 of the 7 best performing lists ranked SEA number 1 and only 4 lists ranked CIN none of which ranked them higher than 3rd (me). I think SEA is the better matchup.

As I said, this week is one of the scariest to pick a top 10 given the number of iffy matchups which is supported by the very large list of potential top 10 defenses across the 7 systems.

Thanks for the support and chatter everyone. And most of all, good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 14

Postby nextSportStar » Fri Dec 07, 2012 12:59 am

That is really so much informative. I am interested about of this topic. I am eagerly waiting fro more information.
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