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Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:43 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=531359
Post Mortem:
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Better than last week although KFFL and Yahoo still did better. The Analyzer picked 4 breakouts and 8 of the top 10 were above the median score although also had a -1 pick (dang ARI) and two right on 6 points. KFFL and Yahoo did slightly better as both picked NYJ which was a miss on the analyzer's part. NFL projections and FFix did worse than the Analyzer.

SEA, SF were picked by 7 and both were above average with 1 breakout
DEN, PIT, CLE were picked by 6 and all 3 were above average with 1 breakout
CHI was picked by 5 and had a below average game
CIN and NYJ were picked by 4 and both were above average and 1 breakout
Of the 8 teams picked by 4 or more systems, 7 (87.5%) were above average and 3 of the 8 (37.5%) were breakouts.

ARI, SD and TB were picked by 3 and 2 were above average with one breakout
NYG, STL, BAL and NE were picked by 2 and 2 were above average and 2 breakouts
MIA< BUF, OAK, MIN, DAL, JAC, HOU and ATL were picked by 1 and 3 were above average and 1 breakout.

Of 15 teams picked by 3 or fewer there were only 7 (46%) above average and 4 (26.7%) breakouts.

Last week were slim pickings indeed and this week doesn't look much better.

DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).

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And performance by week:
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And how generous an opponent has been by week:
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Note: ARI moved ahead of KC on the number of points given out per week and playing the defense that played ARI now averages more points than CHI as a defense. PLaying the team against KC or PHI or NYJ averages more points than all other defenses than CHI.

Final rankings:
1) SEA vs. BUF - SEA is the number 3 defense with 4 of last 5 as above average with two breakouts playing a BUF team with 4 of their last 5 as above average with 3 breakouts.
2) CIN vs. PHI - Prior to last week, CIN had 4 of their last 5 as breakout weeks and all above average and PHI, despite cooling off since vick was benched, has given 6 above average games in a row. They also have a top sack/to ratio and trend analysis score although artificially high bc of Vick.
3) DET vs. ARI - ARI has now given 9 of their last 10 games as breakout weeks. Although DET hasn't had a breakout all year, this ranks very highly from matchup.
4) HOU vs. IND - HOU has a top 3 sack/to ratio and 3 above average with 2 breakouts in the last 5, IND has given 3 of their last 5 as breakouts. Suspect HOU will bounce back this week.
5) DEN vs. BAL - DEN has had 6 straight weeks of above average games including 3 breakouts. BAL hasn't yielded a breakout week since week 6 and a few barely above average.
6) GB vs. CHI - Something broken in CHI? GB only has 2 of their last 5 as breakouts with one above average but CHI has given 3 of their last 5 as breakout games. Their defense has been struggling and playing GB could make for a long day.
7) NYJ vs. TEN - The jets have now had 4 of their last 5 weeks as breakouts and play a TEN team that has given 2 straight breakout weeks. This was actually the number 2 trend analysis score despite a 19th ranked s/to ratio.
8) CAR vs. SD - Prior to last week, SD had given 4 straight breakout weeks. CAR has only had one breakout game in the last 5 with only two above average, however and much depends on Rivers. 11th best s/to ratio and top 10 in trend analysis.
9) NYG vs. ATL - the Giants have had 3 breakouts in the past 5 weeks but ATL has only given one breakout in that same period. Still, if they can get pressure on Ryan could be interesting to watch. Kept in top 10 for the high s/to ratio although close to bottom in trend analysis.
10) STL vs. MIN - STL has come out of nowhere to put up 3 breakout weeks. Only problem is that MIN has only yielded one breakout in the last 5 weeks and another above average. As AP should have an easy day vs. STL, however, I struggled to place this in the top 10. But the 12th best s/to ratio.

Riskier play?
OAK vs. KC - KC has given 4 of their last 5 games as above average with 2 breakouts. OAK has only had one breakout game all year (against KC) and 4 below average of their last 5 weeks (a whole lot of nothing otherwise). Although I took this gamble in week 8, not sure I can recommend it now that OAK has staggered on defense. A part of me wants to believe :)

NE vs. SF- Despite being the number 2 defense, they have had 2 below average weeks in a row and face a SF team that has only given one above average game in 6 weeks. Had to ditch it on trend analysis despite a top 10 s/to.

DAL vs. PIT - PIT has given out 4 of their last 5 games as above average with 3 breakouts. It's weird! DAL is a midling level defense but with 3 above averages in the last 5 weeks. I ditched for having one of the worst sack/to ratios in the list but struggled because it was so high on the trend analysis. If you're really in a hurt though, I'd consider it based on trends.

TEN vs. NYJ - TEN has actually has 3 of their last 5 as above average with 2 breakouts but also have had 2 zeroes. NYJ have given 4 of their last 5 as breakouts. This one actually hit very high on the trend analysis but bottom 10 in the sacks/turnover so I ditched it.

CLE vs. WAS - 3 of CLE's last 5 have been above average/breakouts but WAS has been ice cold to opponents. However, there 's a high probability that a new qb commits turnovers and suppresses points against and this creeps up for that merit. If RGIII looks good, this should take strong consideration.

ARI vs. DET - Who knows. Everytime I pick them they do badly, every time I don't they do well. ARI has 2 of their last 5 as breakouts but also 3 below averages and DET has given 2 of their last 5 as breakouts.

SD vs. CAR - SD has now had 4 of their last 6 games as breakout weeks but play a CAR team that has gone ice cold in the past 4 weeks with 4 below average games given out. I'm not sure it warrants a top 10 play.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:50 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, CHI is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are 6th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 11.0 points per game and have now faced the 4th toughest schedule from a passing point of view.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense and they are ranked 2nd by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 9.1 points per game and have had a medium to easy toughness of schedule.
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BAL has yielded a lot of yards through the air but opposing qbs have struggled to throw TDs against them and thus they make a top 10 matchup. By contrast, they have been much easier to run against.

SEA is a top 3 defense from a passing standpoint but have surprisingly faced the third easiest schedule from offensive passing power so that might be artificial. STL has also 'looked' tough but had a very easy schedule to date. DEN on the other hand is ranked 7th by the NFL in yards and have had the toughest schedule to date. Although midling because of TDs given up, they are probably underrated by me.
KC is probably mistakenly ranked 9th by the NFL, however as they have yielded a great many passing TDs leading to great passing days by opponents.

OAK is truly a terrible rushing defense having faced only the 4th most difficult schedule and yet yielding the 3rd most points. ATL similarly has had a very light rushing opponent schedule for giving up as many points as they have. SD may be overrated as they have faced the second easiest rushing schedule but are top 5 on mine and NFL's list.

A Ridley is a stud? note:
Week 13 vs. MIA (11) 71/1/0
Week 14 vs. HOU (1) 72/1/0

Pretty reliable numbers although vs. HOU, he wasn't doing anything until HOU sat their starters in the 4th. Still, he's fared okay by my book against some solid rushing defenses.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby sabercats » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:58 pm

Thanks Prince. Last week i started Def Brown and happy. I have Houston Def for this week, but look at GB, Jax and NE beat them badly, so i am not sure should i stick with Houston Def or not.
PHI played good the last 3 games, and now at home . PHI may get 24pts+ at home how CIN Def can be number 2? Will MIA Def be bettter ? If you were me what team you will start (HOU , CIN, MIA) ? Thanks.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby cabrego » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:28 pm

thanks i always look for this post!! ;-D

A bit late but what do the highlighted yellow boxes mean?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby sirsydney » Tue Dec 11, 2012 4:32 pm

I can play DET, MIA, DEN, or NE. Detroit seems to be the one everyone is salivating over, but Delmas is out, and Fairley might be out as well. Is this a trap game? I know that ARI is just that bad, but at home after last week's shellacking, I can't imagine they at least try to be respectable. Who do I go with?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby Blaze954 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 9:35 pm

Who should i go with?

New England @ SF
Stl @ min
Greenbay @ Chi
Ten @ NYJ
Min @ stl
SD @ CAR
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby petrieslastword » Wed Dec 12, 2012 2:05 pm

I'm pretty short on options this week. Currently have Tennessee, but here's what else is available:

Philly
San Diego
St. Louis
Arizona
Tamba Bay
Washington
Carolina
New Orleans
Indy
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Oakland
St. Louis
I'm currently projected to lose by about 10 points this week, so I need all the help I can get, especially after my opponent got Detroit on the wire. Help?
Last edited by petrieslastword on Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:11 pm

sabercats wrote:Thanks Prince. Last week i started Def Brown and happy. I have Houston Def for this week, but look at GB, Jax and NE beat them badly, so i am not sure should i stick with Houston Def or not.
PHI played good the last 3 games, and now at home . PHI may get 24pts+ at home how CIN Def can be number 2? Will MIA Def be bettter ? If you were me what team you will start (HOU , CIN, MIA) ? Thanks.


In the past, points generally aren't that great a predictor of breakout games compared to sacks and turnovers. An average score provides almost no points to most defensive schemes. Even if PHI gets 24 points, that usually doesn't take away too many points. But each sack and turnover provides only positive points without a chance of a 'negative' point. The ranking is largely statistical weighted first by sacks/turnover ratio but then modified by recent trends (typically number of last 5 breakout games and number of above average games). By that reckoning, CIN has had 4 of their last 5 as breakout and above average and PHI has given 2/5 breakout and 5/5 above average games (even when they've scored more than 24 points). However, I encourage you to look at what the other ranking systems list. I'm still waiting on Yahoo and fantasy fix to post their defense rankings but CIN has been ranked in the top 10 by kffl and fftoolbox but not by NFL or FFix.

cabrego wrote:thanks i always look for this post!! ;-D

A bit late but what do the highlighted yellow boxes mean?

Those are the teams that the analyzer did not pick listed on the other ranking lists.

I'll try to answer the others when I see what Yahoo and FFix list. It's hard to give more justification than I have in the post.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby c1turbo » Wed Dec 12, 2012 3:18 pm

Houston vs IND
or
Tampa @ NO

Houston hasn't been doing well lately 3/4 bad games, bounce back in a big way?
New Orleans has given up 3 in a row big games, it was a shootout early in the season...
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 15

Postby Doctor P » Wed Dec 12, 2012 4:45 pm

See above, roll w/Houston, MUCH better matchup than TB @ NO ;-D
QB: Romo, Freeman
RB: Foster, Peterson,LeShoure, Wilson, Mathews
WR: Bryant, Moore, Fitz
TE: Hernandez
D/ST: Pittsburgh, NYJ
K: Janikowski
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