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by prince_45243 » Tue Dec 11, 2012 3:43 pm Post Mortem:
Better than last week although KFFL and Yahoo still did better. The Analyzer picked 4 breakouts and 8 of the top 10 were above the median score although also had a -1 pick (dang ARI) and two right on 6 points. KFFL and Yahoo did slightly better as both picked NYJ which was a miss on the analyzer's part. NFL projections and FFix did worse than the Analyzer.
SEA, SF were picked by 7 and both were above average with 1 breakout
DEN, PIT, CLE were picked by 6 and all 3 were above average with 1 breakout
CHI was picked by 5 and had a below average game
CIN and NYJ were picked by 4 and both were above average and 1 breakout
Of the 8 teams picked by 4 or more systems, 7 (87.5%) were above average and 3 of the 8 (37.5%) were breakouts.
ARI, SD and TB were picked by 3 and 2 were above average with one breakout
NYG, STL, BAL and NE were picked by 2 and 2 were above average and 2 breakouts
MIA< BUF, OAK, MIN, DAL, JAC, HOU and ATL were picked by 1 and 3 were above average and 1 breakout.
Of 15 teams picked by 3 or fewer there were only 7 (46%) above average and 4 (26.7%) breakouts.
Last week were slim pickings indeed and this week doesn't look much better.
DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.
My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).
And performance by week:
And how generous an opponent has been by week:
Note: ARI moved ahead of KC on the number of points given out per week and playing the defense that played ARI now averages more points than CHI as a defense. PLaying the team against KC or PHI or NYJ averages more points than all other defenses than CHI.
Final rankings:
1) SEA vs. BUF - SEA is the number 3 defense with 4 of last 5 as above average with two breakouts playing a BUF team with 4 of their last 5 as above average with 3 breakouts.
2) CIN vs. PHI - Prior to last week, CIN had 4 of their last 5 as breakout weeks and all above average and PHI, despite cooling off since vick was benched, has given 6 above average games in a row. They also have a top sack/to ratio and trend analysis score although artificially high bc of Vick.
3) DET vs. ARI - ARI has now given 9 of their last 10 games as breakout weeks. Although DET hasn't had a breakout all year, this ranks very highly from matchup.
4) HOU vs. IND - HOU has a top 3 sack/to ratio and 3 above average with 2 breakouts in the last 5, IND has given 3 of their last 5 as breakouts. Suspect HOU will bounce back this week.
5) DEN vs. BAL - DEN has had 6 straight weeks of above average games including 3 breakouts. BAL hasn't yielded a breakout week since week 6 and a few barely above average.
6) GB vs. CHI - Something broken in CHI? GB only has 2 of their last 5 as breakouts with one above average but CHI has given 3 of their last 5 as breakout games. Their defense has been struggling and playing GB could make for a long day.
7) NYJ vs. TEN - The jets have now had 4 of their last 5 weeks as breakouts and play a TEN team that has given 2 straight breakout weeks. This was actually the number 2 trend analysis score despite a 19th ranked s/to ratio.
8) CAR vs. SD - Prior to last week, SD had given 4 straight breakout weeks. CAR has only had one breakout game in the last 5 with only two above average, however and much depends on Rivers. 11th best s/to ratio and top 10 in trend analysis.
9) NYG vs. ATL - the Giants have had 3 breakouts in the past 5 weeks but ATL has only given one breakout in that same period. Still, if they can get pressure on Ryan could be interesting to watch. Kept in top 10 for the high s/to ratio although close to bottom in trend analysis.
10) STL vs. MIN - STL has come out of nowhere to put up 3 breakout weeks. Only problem is that MIN has only yielded one breakout in the last 5 weeks and another above average. As AP should have an easy day vs. STL, however, I struggled to place this in the top 10. But the 12th best s/to ratio.
Riskier play?
OAK vs. KC - KC has given 4 of their last 5 games as above average with 2 breakouts. OAK has only had one breakout game all year (against KC) and 4 below average of their last 5 weeks (a whole lot of nothing otherwise). Although I took this gamble in week 8, not sure I can recommend it now that OAK has staggered on defense. A part of me wants to believe
NE vs. SF- Despite being the number 2 defense, they have had 2 below average weeks in a row and face a SF team that has only given one above average game in 6 weeks. Had to ditch it on trend analysis despite a top 10 s/to.
DAL vs. PIT - PIT has given out 4 of their last 5 games as above average with 3 breakouts. It's weird! DAL is a midling level defense but with 3 above averages in the last 5 weeks. I ditched for having one of the worst sack/to ratios in the list but struggled because it was so high on the trend analysis. If you're really in a hurt though, I'd consider it based on trends.
TEN vs. NYJ - TEN has actually has 3 of their last 5 as above average with 2 breakouts but also have had 2 zeroes. NYJ have given 4 of their last 5 as breakouts. This one actually hit very high on the trend analysis but bottom 10 in the sacks/turnover so I ditched it.
CLE vs. WAS - 3 of CLE's last 5 have been above average/breakouts but WAS has been ice cold to opponents. However, there 's a high probability that a new qb commits turnovers and suppresses points against and this creeps up for that merit. If RGIII looks good, this should take strong consideration.
ARI vs. DET - Who knows. Everytime I pick them they do badly, every time I don't they do well. ARI has 2 of their last 5 as breakouts but also 3 below averages and DET has given 2 of their last 5 as breakouts.
SD vs. CAR - SD has now had 4 of their last 6 games as breakout weeks but play a CAR team that has gone ice cold in the past 4 weeks with 4 below average games given out. I'm not sure it warrants a top 10 play.
