Defense Analyzer - Week 15

[petrieslastword]

See above, roll w/Houston, MUCH better matchup than TB @ NO

Especially with Luck having the most thrown INT in the league.

[wtr23]

I have Seattle and Cincinnati as my team defenses this week, I'm wondering who should I start? I like the chance of Turnovers and sacks for Cincy, but pts allowed plays a big part in our defensive scoring and I'm afraid philly will score on the bengals. Seattle had a great game last week, and I'm looking to start them again this week. Any reason to start the bengals over the seahawks here?

[chiroacademy]

Help I need to find points

NE (San Fran)
Jets @ TN

SD
CLE
GB
STL

are also on WW

Who would you start?

[sundragon123]

Hey prince... thank for all the work...

which would you start:
Det @ Ari

or

Sea @ Buf

I've been trying to start def against ARI every week and it work. But SEA is playing at a high level.
Do i stay with the plan of starting any one against ARI or go with the hot hand?

thx

[prince_45243]

SEA and DET were picked by all 7 systems and SEA was ranked number 1 by 5 of the 7 systems. DET was ranked 2nd or 1st in 5 of the 7 systems as well.
HOU, DEN and PIT were selected by 6 of the systems. PIT was not selected by the analyzer but all other systems included them in the top 10. HOU was not selected by KFFL and DEN was not picked by the NFL projections.

CIN and MIA were picked by 5 of the systems. CIN wasn't picked by the NFL and Hawk Michael's blog. MIA was not picked by the analyzer and Michaels.
GB, STL and CHI were selected by 4 of the systems. CHI wasn't selected by the Analyzer.

NYJ, CAR, NYG were all selected by the Analyzer but by very few other systems.
SF, TEN, CLE, OAK, TB, and NE were selected by at least one of the other systems but by few others.

In the past, teams with 4 or more of the systems picking them in the top 10 have performed more reliably than those with 3 or fewer picking them.

I can play DET, MIA, DEN, or NE. Detroit seems to be the one everyone is salivating over, but Delmas is out, and Fairley might be out as well. Is this a trap game? I know that ARI is just that bad, but at home after last week's shellacking, I can't imagine they at least try to be respectable. Who do I go with?

DET seems to be your best bet and if you're really squeamish, DEN seems your next best bet. Either should have a solid day and sometimes intuition is better than stats.

Who should i go with?

New England @ SF
Stl @ min
Greenbay @ Chi
Ten @ NYJ
Min @ stl
SD @ CAR

I think you're between STL and GB. AP is facing a very weak rushing defense in STL and so I might tip there to GB imho. They also have the better ranking on Analyzer which may already rank that in there. All of the systems that had them both listed had GB over STL except NFL but it's pretty close.

I'm pretty short on options this week. Currently have Tennessee, but here's what else is available:

Philly
San Diego
St. Louis
Arizona
Tamba Bay
Washington
Carolina
New Orleans
Indy
Kansas City
Jacksonville
Oakland
St. Louis
I'm currently projected to lose by about 10 points this week, so I need all the help I can get, especially after my opponent got Detroit on the wire. Help?

STL? I think MIN is trouble with their pass rush but none of your other options look very promising. Oak plays KC and may be worth a shot but I worried about it pretty badly. It's not a pretty list but that's the two I'd waffle between.

Houston vs IND
or
Tampa @ NO

Houston hasn't been doing well lately 3/4 bad games, bounce back in a big way?
New Orleans has given up 3 in a row big games, it was a shootout early in the season...

Indeed, HOU was selected by 6 systems and many had them ranked 5th or better while NO didn't make any top 10 list. It's just statistics but it looks better for HOU.

I have Seattle and Cincinnati as my team defenses this week, I'm wondering who should I start? I like the chance of Turnovers and sacks for Cincy, but pts allowed plays a big part in our defensive scoring and I'm afraid philly will score on the bengals. Seattle had a great game last week, and I'm looking to start them again this week. Any reason to start the bengals over the seahawks here?

SEA was selected by all 7 lists and ranked number 1 by 5 of them. CIN was selected by 5 of the lists and ahead of SEA on one of the lists but some did not rank them but ranked them low.

Help I need to find points
NE (San Fran)
Jets @ TN
SD
CLE
GB
STL
are also on WW
Who would you start?

GB and STL were selected by more systems than the jets vs. Cincy. GB having a slight edge overall than the other two. I think you're between those three and I guess I tip a little more to GB but just by a little.

Hey prince... thank for all the work...

which would you start:
Det @ Ari

or

Sea @ Buf

I've been trying to start def against ARI every week and it work. But SEA is playing at a high level.
Do i stay with the plan of starting any one against ARI or go with the hot hand?

thx

Lol, great problem to have! Tbh, I personally would do DET. Call it superstition or something but I just have a good feeling about the game vs a very dysfunctional ARI team. The stats say SEA, however and there's something to be said for 5 of the 7 picking SEA as number 1.

Good luck everyone!

[prince_45243]

Also, I'm still not sure about PIT vs. DAL. Every system but Analyzer picked them up in top 10. They have a low sacks/to ratio. PIT has one breakout game all year and DAL hasn't given a breakout since week 8. That's half the season ago. But, a LOT of other systems picked them.

CHI was picked by 4 playing GB and they had one of the best sacks/to ratios and the highest scoring averages but had below average the last two games and GB has only given up 2 breakout games in 14 games. Surprised they ranked so high.

I'm very nervous now about my NYJ, CAR and NYG picks. I didn't expect so few to pick them up. The jets play CIN but they have 4 breakouts in their last 5. CAR plays SD who also have given out 4 breakouts in their last 5 and NYG vs ATL was a tough call for me but gave it out of respect to high sacks/to and better recent performance than CHI.

But, only time will tell.

[Itchy]

Thanks for the great information. I'm in the playoffs and can't decide - please help. Here's my choices:

GB vs CHI
NYJ vs TEN

Thanks in advance!

[ds1]

Prince,

Based on the analyzer #'s thru week 14, any thoughts about good Def's to pick up for Week 16 (trying to get ahead here)? Here are some options in my league (I own Cincinnati, who will be @Pit), but I am sure it varies by the league:

Arizona vs Chi
Carolina vs Oak
San Diego @NYJ
Kansas City vs Ind
Washington @Phi
Miami vs Buf
Buffalo @Mia
Indianapolis @KC

Thanks!

[prince_45243]

Thanks for the great information. I'm in the playoffs and can't decide - please help. Here's my choices:

GB vs CHI
NYJ vs TEN

Thanks in advance!

That's a tough split. GB is a better defense but has a tougher matchup in CHI. CHI has given 3 of last 5 as breakouts but GB has had some real dogs of games in the last 4 weeks along with a few breakouts. NYJ have had 4 of last 5 breakout weeks and TEN has given out 2 breakouts in a row but also given out a 6 and a zero recently. GB does play at CHI and CHI is going to be a bit wet and cool on Sunday which favors a defense while NYJ play at TEN which should be warmer and nicer on MNF.

GB has 15 picks, 35 sacks but only 3 fumble recoveries
NYJ have 11 picks 35 sacks and 6 FR
Toss-up

CHI has given up 15 picks 37 sacks, 3 fumbles
TEN has given up 14 picks, 26 sacks, 6 fumbles;
Toss up. CHI gives up more sacks but offset by fewer fumbles.

CHI averages 23.7ppg and TEN average 20.8 ppg - Toss-up
GB permits 21.5 ppg and nyj permit 29.2 ppg. Favors GB

Starting to get pretty nitty gritty there and can't make much out but it looks very slightly (statistically) towards GB vs. CHI. Tough call but that seems the way the stats go.

Prince,

Based on the analyzer #'s thru week 14, any thoughts about good Def's to pick up for Week 16 (trying to get ahead here)? Here are some options in my league (I own Cincinnati, who will be @Pit), but I am sure it varies by the league:

Arizona vs Chi
Carolina vs Oak
San Diego @NYJ
Kansas City vs Ind
Washington @Phi
Miami vs Buf
Buffalo @Mia
Indianapolis @KC

Thanks!

I don't really like to analyze two weeks ahead as I like the recent trend and one week can have a pretty big impact on it. However, I don't need to run the two hours of analysis to know that SD vs. NYJ will be up there and I think it's your best option to pick up now. SD is now the 6th best overall defense with 4 of the last 5 as breakout weeks (although a zero last week) and playing a jets team that has given 4 of last 5 as breakouts. That may change with this coming week but from this side of week 15, it looks very good. Also on there will be WAS vs. PHI is going to be high on that list. With last night included, that would be 7 straight weeks of above average games with 4 being breakouts for PHI but WAS isn't as good a defense as SD has been.

I'm sure ARI vs. CHI will show up there as well but have never really known how to predict their performance.

[envytheu]

NYJ @ TEN
CLE vs WSH
MIA vs JAC

Thanks!