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What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career?

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What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career?

Postby bigdogg712 » Thu Dec 13, 2012 11:11 pm

Alright, so I have played Fantasy Football for the past three seasons (2010-2012). I have yet to have a winning season, nonetheless make the playoffs. I have a combined record of 15-24. Somethings gotta change. Im not sure what I am doing wrong. I have written out all of my past 3 drafts, along with my teams at the end of the year.

Granted, my first year playing was also my first year watching, reading about, or even saying the word “football.” My draft basically went with who I had heard of. I knew Brees because he was on the cover of Madden (so he must be good, right?!?), and I didnt know about the curse. I knew about Randy Moss because he is my cousin’s favorite player, and we all know what happened that year (Pats, Vikings, and Titans, right?). I knew Ochocinco because of his awesome name. I knew Farve, Tomlinson, and McNabb just because they had all been in the league for 50 years. I literally knew nobody else, or at least didn't recognize their names.

All the leagues start the standard QB/2RB/2WR/FLEX/TE/DST/K and use ESPN standard scoring. The 2010 league is the only one with 8 people, 2011 and 2012 both had 10 teams.


Season 1: 2010
Teams: 8
Pick: 7th

Draft:
1(7)- Brees
2(10)- Moss
3(23)- Marshall
4(26)- Benson
5(39)- Ochocinco
6(42)- Reggie Bush
7(55)- Celek
8(58)- Eagles DST
9(71)- Kaeding
10(74)- Jerome Harrison
11(87)- McNabb
12(90)- Tomlinson
13(103)- Shaincoe
14(106)- Farve
15(119)- Portis
16(122)- Fred Jackson

Ending Roster:
QB- Brees, Roethlisberger
RB- Blount, Torain, Benson, Stewart
WR- Calvin Johnson, Wallace, Marshall, Welker, Ohcocinco, Ward, Fitzgerald
TE- Davis
DST- Giants
K- Akers

Ending Record: 6-7
Playoffs: NO

______________________________________________________________________

Season 2: 2011
Teams: 10
Pick: 10th

Draft:
1(10)- Mendenhall
2(11)- Turner
3(30)- DeSean Jackson
4(31)- Bowe
5(50)- Roethlisberger
6(51)- Holmes
7(70)- Daniels
8(71)- Steelers DST
9(90)- Knox
10(91)- Starks
11(110)- James Jones
12(111)- Ricky Williams
13(130)- Amendola
14(131)- Evans
15(150)- Sanchez
16(151)- Henery

Ending Roster:
QB- Roethlisberger, Orton
RB- Turner, Jones-Drew, Kahlil Bell, DeAngelo Williams, Tolbert
WR- DeSean Jackson, White, Cruz, Brown, Santana Moss
TE- Celek, Daniels
DST- Steelers
K- Akers

Ending Record: 5-7
Playoffs: NO

______________________________________________________________________

Season 3: 2012
Teams: 10
Pick: 4th

Draft:
1(4)- Foster
2(17)- Charles
3(24)- Nicks
4(37)- Julio Jones
5(44)- Lloyd
6(57)- Rivers
7(64)- Demaryius Thomas
8(77)- Ingram
9(84)- Hillis
10(97)- Britt
11(104)- Wilson
12(117)- Tamme
13(124)- Flacco
14(137)- Jets DST
15(144)- Ryan Williams
16(157)- Prater

Ending Roster:
QB- Brees, Palmer
RB- Foster, Charles, Wells, Moreno, DeAngelo Williams, Wilson
WR- Thomas, Colston, Williams, Lloyd, Jennings
TE- Davis
DST- Seahawks
K- Tynes

Ending Record: 4-10
Playoffs: NO




Hopefully you can tell me what trends you notice in my drafts and final teams, and possibly how I can improve in fantasy football overall.
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby fierro33 » Sat Dec 15, 2012 2:31 pm

dont have a clue why ur team is 4-10 this year with those players.....i would be happy to have that team in the playoffs
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby dynastyman » Mon Dec 17, 2012 6:24 pm

I dont really have a great internal gauge for 8 or 10 team leagues..what might be considered good..or bad. From what I can gather, it seems that in such leagues ALL the teams seem stacked.

So why you don't succeed could be as simple as 2 things:

1. Bad luck. When two teams with lots of great players face off, as is normal for 8 or 10 team leagues, one of them has to lose, despite being a solid team.
2. Poor choices in picking starters. Maybe your fault for not keeping abreast of the most current news and maybe something you really could not avoid.

Watching the actual games is important. Stats can be misleading. A player might seem like a great guy to use bc he has been scoring well, but maybe those are fluke plays? Maybe he isnt a guy to count on and instead you should bench him or try to trade him.


One last thing. In an 8 or 10 team league, I imagine 4 or 6 teams are left out of the playoffs. The odds are that in 3 years you would make the playoffs at least once, but since the first of those 3 years was also your first FF season ever, perhaps you just need to keep at it and keep adding to your repertoire of FF Skills. Make no mistake, some days we all hate Fantasy Football.
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby pmstick » Mon Dec 17, 2012 10:32 pm

Great question. Your luck will change, especially when asking for help this way.

Season 1: 2010 Waited too long on RBs, tough position to fill later on. Very common rookie mistake in fantasy football that I made as well. Even in an 8-teamer, RB is a make-or-break position where your studs cannot be easily replaced the way WRs can come and go in 8-teamers.

Season 2: 2011 Pretty average team with a tier 2 QB in Roethlisberger. Looks like injuries ripped through your team. No real breakouts. Try and spend those middle-round picks on guys like Doug Martin, Dez Bryant, and Torrey Smith (thinking 2012) with high upsides that could bust rather than Bowe, Holmes and Daniels that you know what you're going to get. Chances are they are replaceable from week to week but a breakout guy is not. Save the consistent picks for the top 3.

Season 3: 2012: 2012 QB problems can be deadly. By the looks of your record I'm thinking Brees was acquired later rather than sooner but I might be wrong, and Brees has been underperforming five out of the last 6 weeks. Solid RBs, but missing the TE spot and Nicks was often-injured. Your team is better than your record indicates, unlucky. I'm sure you put up more points than teams ahead of you.

Looks like you have the roster management down and have made some good trades. Be ready at drafts by studying offenses and sleepers and keep your ear to the ground during the first three weeks when the waiver wire is most important.
Standard Scoring, 8 Team PPR

QB- BREES, Romo
RB- MARTIN, RICE, Sproles, Murray, A.Morris
WR-D.THOMAS, BRYANT, Maclin, S.Smith
TE- GRAHAM, Hernandez
K- TUCKER
DEF- BENGALS, Giants

Mathews for my Ridley/Redman
Rice for my Mathews/Wallace
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby c1turbo » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:10 pm

What you want is to prepare early and doing 100 mock drafts and see where players of value are getting drafted.
You just want to out draft everyone. Ignore the high Risk players which this year there were many. I stayed away from the turners/gores for a reason. Old low upside.

Only thing that can help you is use your experience from the other years and apply them to 2013 season.
1. Create a new list for 2013 - A Do not draft list: mcfadden, s.jackson, ryan matthews, m. turner, percy harvin, reggie bush, miles austin, mcgahee, PIT Rb's. ect...
2. With the emergence of Ryan, Luck and RG3 it looks like QB is 10 deep and 2 tiers. I might just wait on qb for next year. Maybe Cam Newton in the 4/5th? Romo/R.Wilson in the 6th/10th?
3. Another list of Upside players and or good value in draft: CJ Spiller type breakouts with opportunity- Daryl Richardson, Moreno, Dez Bryant,
Cam Newton, Randall Cobb. (might even draft Cobb in the 4th round next year if Jennings leaves!) He's just like Percy Harvin minus the migranes.

Just MOCK MOCK MOCK! I never let anyone know how much I mock. Let them think they are working harder. They do 100 mocks. Your doing 200.
That's extreme, but you might not need that much to be able predict the flow of the real draft.

You should quit if you didn't have a winning record with your 2012 team. J/K.
Because Charles, Brees, Foster, Seahawks defense each won a matchup week all by themselves.
Each year there is a trend and you gotta try to get it. It just luck. Strategize!

2010 was a bad draft because its an 8team league and you have alot of fringe players.

That year was the breakout year of Jamaal Charles and Foster and you didn't get anyone of them. Heres my draft 10 team.
1. (4) Ray Rice
2. (17) Peyton Manning
3. (24) DeSean Jackson
4. (37) Jamaal Charles
5. (44) Arian Foster
6. (57) Mike Sims-Walker
7. (64) Jason Witten
8. (77) Malcom Floyd
9. (84) Brandon Jacobs
10. (97) Philadelphia
11. (104) Joe Flacco
12. (117) Rob Bironas
13. (124) Braylon Edwards
14. (137) Mohamed Massaquoi
15. (144) Dustin Keller

2011 - Year of the QB, which you missed out on upside again. Handful of Qb's had 5000 yds and 35+ TDs. Breakout of the TEs. Gronkowski went last pick in the draft. You went to traditional this year. I came in 2nd overall I was #1 seed, the winner drafted 10th - Aaron Rodgers and Calvin Johnson pick.
1. (8) LeSean McCoy
2. (13) Tom Brady
3. (28) Mike Wallace
4. (33) Miles Austin
5. (48) Knowshon Moreno
6. (53) Kenny Britt
7. (68) Jimmy Graham
8. (73) New York
9. (88) Mason Crosby
10. (93) Daniel Thomas
11. (108) Pierre Thomas
12. (113) Joe Flacco
13. (128) Pierre Garcon)
14. (133) Jared Cook
15. (148) New Orleans

2012- currently 1st in championship, the Value Based draft year. Create the VBD draft rankings and draft from there. I was extremely lucky on the Andre Johnson panning out, but Jamaal and Trent were great value because they are the workhorses, I could've gotten AP at 3rd, but he was snatched. Trend of the QB's your going to see alot of 1st round QB's. AGAIN. Which you didn't follow. The best value at QB this year was Peyton Manning.
1. (6) Aaron Rodgers
2. (15) Andre Johnson
3. (26) Jamaal Charles
4. (35) Trent Richardson
5. (46) Dez Bryant
6. (55) Vincent Jackson
7. (66) Willis McGahee
8. (75) Torrey Smith
9. (86) Kenny Britt
10. (95) Houston
11. (106) C.J. Spiller
12. (115) Brandon Pettigrew
13. (126) Ben Tate
14. (135) Alex Henery
15. (146) Greg Olsen

Just follow the trends and draft VBD with tiers. And make sure you mark players with upside. Stay away from OLD players. I was also lucky with Mcgahee this year. He had good value this year, but next year I won't touch him.
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby johnnyfantasy » Tue Dec 18, 2012 12:28 pm

draft peterson bro, thats why you suck.

i draft him every year. id draft him if he was in a wheelchair first round. when that guy says "if you dont draft me in the first round this year youll be sorry" i believe him. I got him in the second round and everyone in my league was sorry

-johnnyfantasy
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby Thor » Mon Dec 24, 2012 10:56 am

johnnyfantasy wrote:draft peterson bro, thats why you suck.

i draft him every year. id draft him if he was in a wheelchair first round. when that guy says "if you dont draft me in the first round this year youll be sorry" i believe him. I got him in the second round and everyone in my league was sorry

-johnnyfantasy



And look what he did in the week of most leagues title game? 8pts?

Our championship is week 17 this year, I just beat a team with Peterson and Aaron Rogers to get there, and oh yeah, my first pick was Rob Gronkowski(13th over all/ 14 team league)
14 Team 5 pts per 5 receptions
QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, TE, FLEX(WR/TE), K, DST
QB- Romo, Freeman, Manuel
RB- Sproles, J Bell, Bernard, W McGahee
WR - Megatron, D Bryant, V Brown, A Jeffery, R Randle, P Harvin(IR)
TE- J Graham, Sudfeld
K- Hartley
DST - Dallas
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby srlarson » Wed Dec 26, 2012 4:17 pm

Don't feel bad....3 years you are still a rookie......Just learn and move forward....been doing it 22 years.....having to wait fo rthe paper on Monday morning to manually score ........gotten much better...

But it all comes to prep, and watching the waiver wire......

Be ready for the drafts Mock's help, but then if youhave a stable league, try to figure out what the other guys are going to do.....a little different if auction or s draft......

Then go through and budget if auction, or layout different scenarios and see what your team looks like......try drafting at the top and takinga QB vs RB....then improvise.....

One thing I see new FFL players do, is go into the draft with one plan....and then when things go wrong...they flip out.....I'll go in with my list usually tiered.....then trust the list and keep in mind your mocks......and build your team....

In auctions I'll target a couple of players early and then have $'s saved for players late....when everyone else is lookingg for $1 players i want budget for the wr 4 and 5's i want (This year Wayne and Cobb in both my leagues) and RB4 (that one didn't work out this year (Tate).....but Morris off the waiver wire filled in nicely.....

Waiver Wire concept....I try to get the guys early off the wire....we have scaled pickups after our bidding period, pickups are $1.....so i will pick up many $1 pickups a week early, thus morris this year, I think i had 23 pickups this year, played 8 of them....but spent far less than others in my league who got caught up inthe bidding process....youhave to find what works for you, I lost out on a couple of guys....but overall did ok...in the money in both of my leagues.....yes I limit it to 2 leagues anymore.......

Good Luck!! Keep it up...
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby Minnesota Guy » Thu Dec 27, 2012 4:52 pm

Your 2012 team is ridiculous. What people need to remember is fantasy is mostly luck. The guy that won my league this year had the 4th fewest points in the regular season. I have won 5 titles in 12 years. You are drafting fine. The main thing to focus on when drafting is drafting players that provde the least amount of risk with high upside. Cardinal sin, don't miss on your first 3 picks. If you draft a bust in any of hte first 4 rounds, you could have a long season. Don't get cute in the early rounds. Save that for later. If you miss on a flyer in the late rounds it won't impact your team much if at all. Stick to the basics in the early rounds. RB/WRs and an elite QB. After the draft, remember that a team must evolve to be successful, so if you draft a guy that isn't performing to par or you notice a player on another team that is underperforming, try to buy low. Don't let another team buy low on you if hte deal doesn't make sense for your team. Always forge ahead. Drafting, trading players is like the stock market. There are trends and mirages. Avoid the mirages at all cost. It's easy to buy into a player with the hot hand. Think matchups in weeks 14-16 (playoffs). If you can draft well like you have and stay ontop of the waiver wire and be saavy with trades, you will succeed. That is my quick tutorial for you. haha
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Re: What do I keep doing wrong in my fantasy football career

Postby Thor » Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:10 pm

Minnesota Guy wrote:Your 2012 team is ridiculous. What people need to remember is fantasy is mostly luck. The guy that won my league this year had the 4th fewest points in the regular season. I have won 5 titles in 12 years. You are drafting fine. The main thing to focus on when drafting is drafting players that provde the least amount of risk with high upside. Cardinal sin, don't miss on your first 3 picks. If you draft a bust in any of hte first 4 rounds, you could have a long season. Don't get cute in the early rounds. Save that for later. If you miss on a flyer in the late rounds it won't impact your team much if at all. Stick to the basics in the early rounds. RB/WRs and an elite QB. After the draft, remember that a team must evolve to be successful, so if you draft a guy that isn't performing to par or you notice a player on another team that is underperforming, try to buy low. Don't let another team buy low on you if hte deal doesn't make sense for your team. Always forge ahead. Drafting, trading players is like the stock market. There are trends and mirages. Avoid the mirages at all cost. It's easy to buy into a player with the hot hand. Think matchups in weeks 14-16 (playoffs). If you can draft well like you have and stay ontop of the waiver wire and be saavy with trades, you will succeed. That is my quick tutorial for you. haha



I won the championship last year with Matt Moore as my QB the last 1/4 of the year and through the playoffs. Fortunately I had Megatron to carry me. This year I won it on the backs of my RB corp. Martin, Ridley, Morris.
14 Team 5 pts per 5 receptions
QB, 2RBs, 3WRs, TE, FLEX(WR/TE), K, DST
QB- Romo, Freeman, Manuel
RB- Sproles, J Bell, Bernard, W McGahee
WR - Megatron, D Bryant, V Brown, A Jeffery, R Randle, P Harvin(IR)
TE- J Graham, Sudfeld
K- Hartley
DST - Dallas
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