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Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

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Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 7:40 pm

Last week's post: viewtopic.php?t=531928
Post Mortem: Image

A great week by the Analyzer although some personal bits of advice did not fare as well. The Analyzer had the most breakouts picked with 6 of the top 10 having 10 or more points. FFtoolbox and Fantasy fix had one more above average picked but one fewer breakout. NFL seems to be underperforming every week now whereas they were once the best predictor. Hawk Michaels blog had a good week although they'd had a few poor weeks in a row.

Overall, Analyzer has more than held it's own although the additional comparisons have helped to improve the accuracy of those looking to find breakouts and select teams.

SEA and DET were both picked by all 7 but DET failed to keep ARI's trend going and produced only 3. One breakout/one above
HOU, DEN and PIT were selected by 6 and I gave extra warnings about not understanding the PIT choice. It fell flat but the other two had breakout games.
CIN and MIA were chosen by 5 lists and both had above average with a breakout.
GB, STL and CHI were chosen by 4 lists and had 2 above average with one break out.

Of the 10 picks with 4 or more, 50% had a breakout and 70% were above average.
Of those picked by 3 or fewer, 33% had breakouts and 44% were above average.

I haven't made much of it but people often ask about individual positions on rank lists. And while I do have a statistical reason or some other fudge factor that pushes my list around in shape, as you can see week after week, there really isn't much to the individual rank of the top 10. Sometimes terrible numbers at the top with good numbers in the middle or lower. In other words, a ranking in the top 10 is probably of equal weight within a rank. But, as I've pointed out, the more lists that select a defense, the better it has performed.

DEFENSE ANALYZER
The Defense Analyzer was originally developed based on a statistical analysis of correlation between particular stats (sacks, turnovers, TDs, points against) to determine which combination was most predictive of a break out game (10+ or more points). The analysis showed that while a defense that allowed the fewest points is great in real life, from a fantasy perspective, sacks and turnovers were more predictive of a good fantasy score. Largely because the median score for points against (in the 20s) provided almost no points to a defense but sacks and turnovers were positives. TDs obviously have an even bigger impact but other than sacks and turnovers, are very hard to predict.

My method is to take the matchups for the week, use the defense's Sacks and weighted Turnovers average per game and compare it to the sacks and turnovers given up by the opponent every week. I sum them to get a score. After I do that, I look at the individual performance of the defense as well as opponents. Last year, playing the defense that faced STL every week was better than SF (the number one defense in my league).
Image

And performance by week:
Image
And how generous an opponent has been by week:
Image

Final Rankings:
1) CHI vs. ARI - The Top TO/S ratio and CHI has 3 of last 5 as breakout and ARI has given 4 of last 5 as breakouts.
2) CIN vs. PIT - CIN has had 5 of their last 6 games as breakout games and PIT has given 5 straight above average games with 3 breakouts.
3) NE vs. JAC - While teh trend data isn't as good here with only 1 breakout given up by JAC, the sacks/to is the second best in the league and NE has just gotten off of a set of division leaders to play against.
4) DEN vs. CLE - DEN has had 7 straight above average games with 4 of those being breakouts. CLE, however, has only given one breakout week in the last 11 games. But a top 10 sacks/to ratio here helps as well.
5) NYJ vs. SD - SD has provided 6 of their last 8 games as breakout games and the Jets have 3 of their last 5 as breakout games.
6) SD vs NYJ - Hope this isn't getting too cute but SD has 4 of last 7 as breakout games although also a 0 and a 3 in the count. Jets have given out 4 of their last 6 as breakout games.
7) IND vs. KC - KC seems to have returned to reliably providing defenses with breakout games .
8) ARI vs. CHI - I've had terrible luck picking ARI but CHI has given 4 of the last 6 games as breakouts and ARI has had 3 of the last 5 as breakouts. By the stats, it makes it to top 10.
9) MIA vs. BUF - BUF has given 4 of last 5 as break outs and 6 of the last 7 as above average games. MIA only has 2 of last 5 as above average but BUF has turned into a very reliable opponent to start against.
10) WAS vs. PHI - PHI has given 7 straight above average games with 4 as breakouts. But WAS as a defense has only given one breakout game since Week 6. Still, it's hard to imagine with RGIII returning this doesn't turn a little lopsided.

Riskier Plays
Man I can't believe I don't have HOU vs. MIN up there. I suspect AP will finally get stopped by HOU's number 1 rushing defense. But MIN has only given one above average game in the last 5 and HOU has only 2 breakouts in the last 5. A little worrisome.

GB vs. TEN looks really really really good. GB has 3 of last 5 as above average with TEN giving 2 of last 5 as a breakout. However, there was a lot of better picks up there and the sacks/to wasn't actually that favorable.

SEA vs. SF. SEA has been on fire but SF has only given one breakout game since week 6. Just couldn't chance it.
SF vs. SEA is the same with 4 BELOW average games given out by SEA.

Have to put kids to bed!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:15 pm

Defense Analyzer - Rushing/Passing Defenses

The NFL ranks rushing and passing defenses based on yards per game. However, in FF, TDs and turnovers have a much bigger impact than yards per game. Thus, I provide a ranking based on the actual FF points given to opposing passers/rushers.

For passing I use 1 point per 25 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per INT
For rushing I use 1 point per 10 yards, 6 per TD, -2 per fumble.

These rankings do not take into account the actual player facing them. You should start McCoy, Rice and other studs no matter how hard the defense they are facing. The same with Brady, Rodgers and Brees. That's why they are studs, you can start them every week!

On the left is the passing defense rankings.
Rank, team, NFL's rank, Score given to opposing passers and toughness of the opposing passers.
For example, SF is the number one passing defense per my ranking. They are 5th by the NFL but have given opposing passers only 11.2 points per game but have faced a midling toughness of schedule.

For rushing, Houston is my number one rushing defense but are ranked and they are ranked 5th by yards alone by the NFL. But they have yielded an average of only 9.2 points per game and have had a medium toughness of schedule.
Image

SF has climbed to the number 1 position as CHI fell several places after holding onto the number 1 position for most of the season. ARI has moved up to be second best passing defense after quietly being in the top 10 most of the year. BAL continues to be under-rated by the NFL as they have only yielded 13 passing TDs in 14 games. Less than one per game! Compare that to DEN who the NFL ranks 7th based on ypg but have given up 24 passing TDs in the same span. Then again, DEN has now officially had the hardest passing offense schedule of the year.

HOU and SF are tied by the NFL and HOU has only yielded 3 rushing TDs all year, SF yielding 6. HOU is also yielding an average of only 93 ypg and SF only 91. GB is more generous at 114 ypg. Truly only HOU and GB now stand between AP and Dickerson's single season title.

Ridley did well with 3 top 10 rushing defenses only faltering last week vs. SF and now he gets the cherry matchup vs. JAX. If only his fumbling doesn't cost him his job!

MIA takes on BUF this week who has yielded an AVERAGE of 144 ypg and has yielded a league worst 22 rushing TDs. The next closest is JAX at 18 rushing TDs. It will be interesting to see how Marshawn Lynch fares against SF. Russel Wilson also being a threat for the rushing TD.

********************************

It's been a great year folks and I hope the Analyzer has helped more than it has hurt. I'll be back later this week with the comparison with other defenses. No list next week. It's Christmas and really most defense analyzer's fall apart in the final week as playoff teams sit studs and so forth.

Good luck everyone!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Tue Dec 18, 2012 8:38 pm

For the Record:
Week 5: Fantasy Fix was better than Analyzer, all others were worse or the same
Week 6: All systems but FFix was better than Analyzer.
Week 7: All systems but FFix was better than Analyzer
Week 8: Analyzer as good as KFFL, NFL and Yahoo. Analyzer better than FFtoolbox and FFix
Week 9: Analyzer beats all other systems
Week 10: Analyzer and NFL beats all other systems
Week 11: FFtoolbox beats Analyzer which ties with KFFL and Hawk Michaels blog
Week 12: No data
Week 13: All systems better than Analyzer
Week 14: KFFL and Yahoo beat Analyzer which ties with FFToolbox and beats the others
Week 15: Analyzer beats all other systems.

Of 10 weeks with data, Analyzer was worst only once but second to worst 2 more times
4 times the Analyzer beat all other systems or was tied for as good as some other system
3 times the Analyzer was second place with FFix being better once, FFtoolbox once, KFFL and yahoo beating Analyzer once.

In all, the Analyzer definitely held it's own compared to other lists with no list consistently beating the Analyzer week in and week out. Analyzer had the most weeks with the most correct picks and KFFL came in second. Yahoo and Hawk Michaels blog were routinely beating the Analyzer last year about half of the weeks but this year modifications to the trend analysis seem to have improved consistency over those. The NFL projection system was a little crazy and I was asked once why I keep them in there. I actually think having a strictly computational based list is probably of some merit but it did seem to fall apart in the latter half of the season. FFix seemed to have the second worst prediction rates although did beat Analyzer one of the 10 weeks. I may drop them in the future although having 6 lists to compare does make for a clearer picture.

I didn't have all of those systems compared every week as well and so some may have done better. Bleacher, as popular as they were, did worse than all other systems for nearly a month and so were dropped from the analysis. ESPN projections similarly did bad enough early that they were simply dropped off. But if they did better later on, I'd have no way of knowing.

Hopefully back again next year!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby cabrego » Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:43 am

Thanks for doing this! I picked up SD because my gut told me the Jets was a good match up. Glad to see you and actually many of the projections agree. May of the projections list SD and a 2 or 3.

Thanks alot!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby sundragon123 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:43 am

Hey prince.. Thanks for all the work this year. Great job. Got one one more tough one..

Sea def

or

Houston def

Which one do you start?

thanks
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 9:24 am

sundragon123 wrote:Hey prince.. Thanks for all the work this year. Great job. Got one one more tough one..

Sea def

or

Houston def

Which one do you start?

thanks


A few profiles:
SEA Defense: 15.6ppg allowed, 16INT, 35 sacks, 7 fumbles
HOU Defense: 20ppg allowed, 15INT, 49 sacks, 10 fumbles
On PPG, advantage to SEA but from sacks/to, clear advantage to HOU. I usually weight sacks/to much better than points against.

SF Offense: 25.5 ppg, 7 INT, 39 sacks, 9 fumbles
MIN Offense: 22.8 ppg, 12 INT, 30 sacks, 9 fumbles
PPG, Turnovers favor Hou's matchup and only sacks favor SEA's matchup.

As an opponent, SF has given up only on 1 breakout since week 6 in week 13 to STL and the rest have actually been below average games. They have survived NE, MIA, CHI, ARI and SEA without a breakout of which SEA, CHI and ARI are top tier defenses, NE a high middle tier defense.

MIN has only given one break out since week 9 although prior to that had given 4 above average games in a row. MIN has given mostly below average games. MIN did give a break out in week 12 to CHI but also has faced GB, CHI again and STL without a breakout of which CHI is top tier with GB and STL being midling tier.

Advantage slightly to HOU as SF is just really cold as an opponent including vs. SEA earlier and MIN has been cold as well but against less high quality defenses than HOU.

SEA has had breakout games vs. BUF, ARI and NYJ of late but those are all bottom tier offenses and very favorable matchups. Vs. MIA they had 9 points and vs. CHI they had 2.

HOU has had breakout games in week 10, 13 and 15 which are CHI, TEN and IND. CHI and IND are playoff teams.
However, vs. JAC in week 11 they had a zero, DET in week 12 a 4 and NE in week 14 a -1.
No clear advantage, perhaps tips slightly to HOU?. HOU has struggled against some weak teams like JAC and teams with a highpowered passer like DET and NE.

Overall, I think it tips to HOU. SEA has had the advantage of very easy opponents (the numbers 1 and 4 for most favorable to face). The only worrisome thing for HOU is some weak games against opponents they should have dominated and that MIN (like SF) has been cold as an opponent.

I don't want this analysis to discourage you, however, from looking for something on the waiver wire. If you play a week 17, SEA faces STL which has not been an overly generous opponent while HOU plays IND who they just recently had a breakout week. You could theoretically drop SEA for a better defensive matchup than HOU has.

Thanks for the compliments. If anyone has anything they think I could do differently in the future, let me know.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby c1turbo » Wed Dec 19, 2012 10:59 am

I only have Houston Defense on roster,
The only D's available for me are:
IND Defense vs KC
or
SD defense vs NYJ

I kind of favor the SD more as the Jets really stink. Plus, I own Jamaal Charles and I expect him to go off.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby c1turbo » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:09 pm

Any path of least resistance?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:09 pm

Just some more profiles
IND allows 25.6 ppg, only 8 INT, 27 sacks, 3 Fumbles
SD allows 22.3ppg, but has 12 INT, 27 sacks, 9 Fumbles
All factors tip to SD as a defense

KC produces only 13.9 ppg, has given up 18 INT, 35 sacks, 10 fumbles
NYJ produces only 18.2 ppg, 17 INT, 35 sacks, 8 fumbles
PPG tips to IND as a defense but the others are a wash.

KC has given 3 breakous in the last 5 weeks to CIN, CLE and OAK of which OAK is a bottom tier defense. Also gave an above average to Den in week 12 and a below average to CAR after a death on their team. DEN is a top tier defense but CAR is middle tier.

NYJ gave breakouts to NE, ARI and TEN. ARI and NE are good defenses, TEN not so much. Below average weeks to JAC and STL with JAC being a bottom tier defense.
Looks like a wash on this stat as both matchups have given good games to bottom tier defenses but also given average weeks to good defenses.

SD has had breakout weeks vs KC, DEN, CIN and PIT of which the last 3 are playoff teams. They had poorer games vs. CAR and BAL. SD has done well, even against playoff worthy teams although also struggled vs. CAR.

IND has had break outs in weeks 10, 12 and 14 vs. JAC, BUF and TEN all bottom tier offenses. Vs. NE, DET and HOU they struggled but KC is arguably a bottom tier offense as well.

I think overall this tips to SD who has done well against good teams while IND has only done well against poorer teams.

So in all, it does look like the stats tip towards SD (and they rank higher on my list :)).

All of those seem better in matchup than HOU vs. MIN imho. On this side of Sunday, anyway.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby VikingCrown » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:10 pm

Definately need some assistance, I have no more waiver moves and made it to the championship game.

I have the Jets and the Panthers D's on my team. I see you have the jets higher, but based off how carolina has been playing are they a better pick?
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