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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:25 pm

c1turbo wrote:Any path of least resistance?

As you like it:

The following tables show the passing offensive power of a team compared to how weak their matchup is in passing for the week. The same with rushing. NE is top of both lists as a matchup this week given that they have a very prolific offense going against one of the weaker defenses in the league. GB's passing offense vs. TEN's weak passing defense also makes it high on the list. MIA isn't so great a rushing offense as BUF is a weak rushing defense.

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And the following is the path of least resistance. I take the passing rank and subtract the rushing rank for each matchup and then sort it. More negative is more likely the path of least resistance goes through passing. More positive means the path of least resistance goes through rushing.

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STL has a path of least resistance highly favorable to passing. They have the 5th best passing matchup of the week against TB while their rushing power isn't that great and facing the 8th best rushing defense in the league. This suggests a good day for Bradford but not much from Sjax. I suspect another weak week for Bryce Brown who has only performed well against bottom tier rushing defenses while WAS is a top 10 rushing defense. On the flip side, it does look like MIA's path is much more in the rushing game vs. the passing game. SF also likely to have an easier time on the ground than through the air vs. SEA. And hopefully Josh Freeman can just not put the ball up for grabs this week vs. STL and let his studly RB do all of the work. STL is 27th in rushing defense vs. 6th in passing defense.

This system has never been validated and it's very tough to do so. Offenses have a personality and will stick with it as it 'works' even if the path of least resistance is through a less strong character. DAL defaults much more to tony romo even if their path of least resistance goes through DeMarco Murray. BAL prefers to run it in vs. pass it in. Just their personality. No matter how good the rushing matchup, SD just trusts Rivers more than Mathews. They could win more games but then there's the insecurity of trying something new. But other teams are more likely to go with the path of least resistance to score points even if it goes against that team's overall 'persona' or can attack in either sphere. SEA can blow up passing one week, rushing the next. SF is much the same way as is Houston. Depends on the character of the team and just how easy the path of least resistance gets.

When there is no major difference in the path of least resistance, teams do tend to go with their strengths whether it's passing or rushing.

Hope it helps although I'm always hesitant to put it out there as it lacks a validation study.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:36 pm

VikingCrown wrote:Definately need some assistance, I have no more waiver moves and made it to the championship game.

I have the Jets and the Panthers D's on my team. I see you have the jets higher, but based off how carolina has been playing are they a better pick?


Profiles
CAR: 22.8ppg, 9 picks 36 sacks 7 fumbles
NYJ: 22.9 ppg, 11 picks 26 sacks 6 fumbles
Slightly favors CAR on sacks alone.

Jets play SD, Panthers play OAK
SD 21.4 ppg, 15 INT, 43 sacks, 5 fumbles
OAK 18.8 ppg, 14 INT, 26 sacks, 4 fumbles
PPG goes to OAK but sack/to goes to SD as a matchup. Favors jets.

NYJ have 3 of last 5 as breakouts vs. 11, 13 and 14 vs. STL, ARI and JAC all of which are bottom tier offenses. But not vs. NE and TEN of which TEN is a bottom tier offense.
CAR has had 2 breakouts in weeks 11 and 15 vs. TB and SD but no breakouts vs. PHI, KC and ATL of which PHI and KC are bottom tier offenses.
Favors jets by more breakouts against weaker offenses.

SD has given out breakouts in weeks 10-13 and week 15 against TB, DEN, BAL, CIN and DAL of which TB and DAL are midling defenses. Week 14 PIT not able to do much but a low tier defense.
OAK has not given a breakout in 4 weeks and in weeks 10, 11 12 did give breakouts to BAL, NO and CIN with NO being a bottom tier defense. But did not give breakouts to DEN, KC or CAR of which KC and CAR are bottom tier defenses.
Favors Jets in that SD has given out breakout weeks to midling defenses while OAK has not consistently given breakouts to weaker defenses.

Almost every metric favors the jets vs. SD over CAR's matchup vs. OAK. Football is a testy little game but I can't find any statistical justification to put CAR over NYJ this week.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby sirsydney » Wed Dec 19, 2012 12:55 pm

I have NE (@JAC), DEN (CLE), MIA (BUF), and IND (@KC)

My opponent has ARI (CHI), so I feel I need the best choice. We're both evenly matched up (he has AP, Rice & JC), so every point is crucial.

Do I go with DEN or NE as a safe start, or an upside pick with MIA or IND?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby sabercats » Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:03 pm

Prince, great help for us and keep up your great works :-)
I have Houston and Denver Def. Should I use Denver Def for week 16 and week 17? or should I use Houston? Thanks.

Happy Holidays,
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:22 pm

sirsydney wrote:I have NE (@JAC), DEN (CLE), MIA (BUF), and IND (@KC)

My opponent has ARI (CHI), so I feel I need the best choice. We're both evenly matched up (he has AP, Rice & JC), so every point is crucial.

Do I go with DEN or NE as a safe start, or an upside pick with MIA or IND?

Defense profiles:
NE: 22.5ppg, 16 picks, 29 sacks, 18 FR?!
DEN: 19.6ppg, 16Picks, 42sacks, 6 fum
MIA: 19.9 ppg, 9 picks, 39 sacks, 3 fum
IND: 25.6ppg, 8 picks,27 sacks, 3 fum

I really think NE is your best pick here. I can give the other stats lines as I did the other matchups but JAC only scores 15.6ppg, has given up 11 Picks, a monstrous 42 sacks and 8 fumbles. It is one of the best sack/to ratios, points against and other matchups of the week. It's true, trendwise it didn't make my top 10. NE has had 3 mediocre games in a row but that was against MIA, HOU and SF the latter two being division leaders. They exploded on NYJ and IND (a potential playoff team). JAC has given 4 straight above average weeks although only one break out but have done so vs. TEN, BUF, NYJ and MIA none but NYJ being a very good defense or NE quality defense.

DEN is a very nice defense and very reliable but technically speaking, CLE has only given one break out week since week 4(!) and 5 straight below average games. No matter how good the rest of the stats work that would make it really hard for me to pick them over JAC who has given only one bad game in the last 6.

IND plays KC and KC is likely to give a breakout this week to IND imho but IND itself isn't that superb a defense. NE is actually a bonafide good defense playing a matchup arguably as good as KC or more generous than KC in the last 5 weeks. BUF is also a nice matchup for MIA but again MIA just isn't as good a defense as NE.

NE is a top pick for me and we can look to see how well it ranks in other systems but on this side of those, I'd have a hard time picking one of your others over NE.

sabercats wrote:Prince, great help for us and keep up your great works :-)
I have Houston and Denver Def. Should I use Denver Def for week 16 and week 17? or should I use Houston? Thanks.

Happy Holidays,


Oh {insert enthusiastic expletive} yeah! DEN vs. KC in week 17?! CLE hasn't given much out but DEN is a very strong defense and I don't see anything there that would make me put it down below HOU this week. And DEN vs. KC could be really fun! Yes HOU plays IND and that should also be very giving but I'd still probably put DEN over HOU in week 17.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby Megalodon » Wed Dec 19, 2012 1:45 pm

Thanks for your work this season!

I am really torn between starting either WAS or ARI.

Any additional thoughts?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby c1turbo » Wed Dec 19, 2012 2:14 pm

Thanks, for the chart.

It's usually my tie breaker for my WR/RB positions. It has worked very well for me as I'm at 9 wins in a row.

However this week is tough for me.

WR: Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant
RB: Jamaal Charles, CJ spiller
FLEX: Trent Ricardson? or Vincent Jackson?

With the path of resistance chart it stats

VJax - 28 score passing but path is 19 for the run.
Trent - 24.1 score for rush, but path -6 favor pass, but Trent is excellent receiver too.
even have a 3rd Hakeem Nicks, but he hasn't been performing. As he was actually dropped and I just grabbed him.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby Doctor P » Wed Dec 19, 2012 4:42 pm

1st off, thank you so much for this thread, I look forward to it every week. In your opinion, or based on the stats, who's the better play between NYJ, SD, Cin, or Ind? I have NYJ and Cincy but could pick up SD or Indy?

I had been all set to play NYJ, but now I'm having 2nd thoughts, thanks!
QB: Romo, Freeman
RB: Foster, Peterson,LeShoure, Wilson, Mathews
WR: Bryant, Moore, Fitz
TE: Hernandez
D/ST: Pittsburgh, NYJ
K: Janikowski
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby wtr23 » Wed Dec 19, 2012 8:22 pm

Broken record, I know, but I hate leaving points on the bench. Has cincy proved to be worthy of a start this week, or do I stick with Seattle?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 9:53 am

DEFENSE COMPARISON
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I added Bleacher back in and dropped Fantasy Fix which has done as poorly now for most of the season that I should have dropped it sooner (plus, they were always last to post their lists).

CHI and DEN were chosen by all 7 lists with CHI being the number one position in 4 of the 7.
DEN was also chosen by all 7 lists but several of the lists had them ranked last or near the bottom (NFL, KFFL and FFtoolbox).

NE was selected by 6 lists with only the bizarre NFL rankings not pickingthem. They weren't ranked lower than 6th otherwise.
GB was selected by 6 lists, with only the Analyzer not picking them. It was one that I had thought looked really, really good but the sacks/to wasn't terrific and the trend was midling. Still I think it's a solid pick.

HOU and SF were picked by 4and 5 lists. KFFL and Analyzer did not pick HOU or SF. The trends for both HOU and MIN did not look favorable and so I couldn't quite put it up there but a lot of confidence on the other lists. SEA's trend analysis shows 4 below average games and SF has a bottom 10 sacks/to ratio with SEA.

SEA was chosen by 4 lists with ANalyzer, Kffl and Yahoo composite not picking SEA. SF has given only one breakout week in the last 8 games.
CIN was selected by 4 lists with NFL, Yahoo and Bleacher passing on the pick. Analyzer had it ranked second (gulp!). They have a top 10 sack/to ratio, 5 of last 6 as breakouts with PIT giving 5 straight above average games and 3 breakouts.
NYJ were selected by 4 lists with NFL, Michaels and Bleacher passing on the jets. SD provided 6 of last 8 games as breakouts and jets have 3 of last 5 as breakouts and they have a top 10 sack/to ratio going into the game.
WAS was selected 4 lists with NFL, KFFL and Yahoo not selecting them. They have a top 5 sack/to ratio and PHI has given 7 straight above average games with 4 breakouts. Still there's a caution flag here in that WAS hasn't been a very studly defense.

The teams selected by a majority of the lists are thus:
CHI, DEN, NE, GB, HOU, SF, SEA, CIN, NYJ and WAS

ARI was selected by only 3 lists (analyzer, KFFL and Yahoo composite).
Some of my favorite picks were really not well represented.
IND was ranked only by NFL (although ranked number one!) and they play KC this week. IND isn't the best of defenses but KC has been a very generous opponent.
MIA vs. BUF was ranked by only Bleacher and this was based almost solely on trends although 4 of last 5 as breakout with 6 of 7 above average is an awfully good trend!
And SD appeared on one other list. Caution flag! Traditionally, a change in qb yields turnovers and a third string qb to boot. But Analyzer is nearly alone with this one.
PIT and CAR were selected by 2 other lists with KFFL ranking CAR as 4th. PIT was ranked as high as 4th by the NFL lists.

Giants, OAK, KC, STL, BAL and ATL were all ranekd by only one lists with STL being ranked 2nd and BAL ranked 5th by the KFFL list. Approach all of these with caution as you should the SD pick.

Some interesting trends, KFFL and Analyzer were a bit more likely to pick together. NFL and Hawk Michaels blog were more like each other with HOU, GB, SF, SEA, CHI and DEN in common between their lists.
Last edited by prince_45243 on Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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