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Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 10:29 am

Megalodon wrote:Thanks for your work this season!

I am really torn between starting either WAS or ARI.

Any additional thoughts?


ARI allows 21.6 ppg, has 22 picks, 36 sacks and 4 fumbles
WAS allows 25 ppg, has 17 picks, 25 sacks and 7 fumbles
All of those tip to ARI

CHI produces 22.9 ppg, 16 picks, 41 sacks and 3 fumbles.
PHI produces 18.1 ppg, 13 picks although Foles has only 4 INT in 6 games and only one in last 4, 42 sacks and a humiliating 17 fumbles
All of those tip to WAS

ARI with breakouts in week 11, 13 and 15 vs ATL, NYJ and DET of which ATL is a top tier offense. But below average to STL and SEA of which STL is a bottom tier offense.
WAS has one break out in week 11 vs. PHI and below averages to DAL, NYG, BAL and CLE of which CLE is a bottom tier offense (although sans RGIII). The other 3 are legitimate playoff contenders so that may explain why they didn't perform as well.
Overall, I think that tips to ARI given that they had a breakout vs. ATL and DET.

CHI gave breakouts in weeks 11, 14 and 15 vs. SF, MIN and GB. SF is a top tier defense but MIN and GB are middle tier. They did not give breakouts to MIN and SEA in between of which SEA is a top tier defense.
PHI gave breakouts in weeks 11 and 15 vs. WAS and CIN with CIN being a top tier defense. And gave above averages to CAR, DAL and TB which are all midling level defenses.
Tips again to ARI in that PHI has not given breakouts consistently to WAS level defenses.

Again, it's close as you can tell from looking at the stats and the trends but ARI really is ranked higher on my list because on the whole, I think those trends tip to ARI over WAS. Only the tos by PHI tips to WAS and those are nothing to sneeze at as they produce the chance for defensive TDs and lower points against. But otherwise, all of other factors seem to tip ARI's way.
c1turbo wrote:Thanks, for the chart.

It's usually my tie breaker for my WR/RB positions. It has worked very well for me as I'm at 9 wins in a row.

However this week is tough for me.

WR: Andre Johnson, Dez Bryant
RB: Jamaal Charles, CJ spiller
FLEX: Trent Ricardson? or Vincent Jackson?

With the path of resistance chart it stats

VJax - 28 score passing but path is 19 for the run.
Trent - 24.1 score for rush, but path -6 favor pass, but Trent is excellent receiver too.
even have a 3rd Hakeem Nicks, but he hasn't been performing. As he was actually dropped and I just grabbed him.


I would interpret the path of least resistance to be essentially non-existent for the TB vs. STL matchup. Both are midling level. As a gestalt, I'm betting Trent will be given the ball a lot more than poor Josh after last weekend's debacle and since there isn't a particular weakness from STL's point of view in passing rushing, I'd lean towards Trent. But, there are many more experts on such picks on the regular form and I'd yield to their wisdom.

Doctor P wrote:1st off, thank you so much for this thread, I look forward to it every week. In your opinion, or based on the stats, who's the better play between NYJ, SD, Cin, or Ind? I have NYJ and Cincy but could pick up SD or Indy?

I had been all set to play NYJ, but now I'm having 2nd thoughts, thanks!

Statistically, CIN is the best play of those not only for the high sacks/to ratio but also their recent trends but it looks like a great many other lists felt that it didn't even warrant a top 10 pick. I'm a little puzzled but I'm not an overly sentimental sort and perhaps the fact that CIN seems to frequently choke against PIT (and BAL) is why this didn't make it up there. CIN and NYJ were selected by a majority of the systems, SD only by me and IND only by me and NFL. So i think it's between CIN and NYJ.

wtr23 wrote:Broken record, I know, but I hate leaving points on the bench. Has cincy proved to be worthy of a start this week, or do I stick with Seattle?


Well, I preferred CIN based on trends and sacks/to ratio but SEA was well represented on the lists although not ranked higher than 6th by anyone. I'm probably too married to the statistics and numbers which don't really capture the essence of a game but statistically, I just don't see how SEA merits a top 10 pick based on either sacks/to ratio and SF as an opponent.

SEA exploded on BUF and ARI both bottom tier offenses, but below average vs. CHI. They earlier had a breakout vs. NYJ and above average vs. MIA, both bottom tier offenses. So against the one above average offense in CHI, they didn't really perform.

CIN has has breakouts vs. PHI,SD, OAK and KC all of which are bottom tier offenses and struggled vs. DAL. Going farther back, they also had a breakout vs. the NYG in week 10. So is PIT more like DAL or more like SD?
PIT has given 5 above average games in a row with breakoutsin weeks 11, 12 and 14 vs. BAL, CLE and SD. I'd rank CIN as good as BAl, better than CLE or SD.

Of course, there are lies, damn lies, and statistics. Don't get all confused with the facts. I'd rather lose with my intuition than mindlessly follow some statistical ranking list. May as well let the rank list play fantasy football instead of me :)


I appreciate everyone's support of the list and I very much appreciate people not rubbing it in when the Analyzer has picked incorrectly. I felt pretty badly when I gave advice that turned sour on gameday. But I'm glad that overall, the Analyzer has held up well.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby c1turbo » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:00 am

Lol, intersting point as SD is only picked by 1 The ANALYZER!
Whereas my HOU is chosen by 5. Which you said it, usually performs when on more lists...

My first championship is going to be a tough decision.

I'm going against a team starting Denver. I usually try to match up against each position.
Which will perform better than denver?

Thanks for everything. It's been a great run!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby cabrego » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:36 am

prince_45243 wrote:DEFENSE COMPARISON
Image
I added Bleacher back in and dropped Fantasy Fix which has done as poorly now for most of the season that I should have dropped it sooner (plus, they were always last to post their lists).

CHI and DEN were chosen by all 7 lists with CHI being the number one position in 4 of the 7.
DEN was also chosen by all 7 lists but several of the lists had them ranked last or near the bottom (NFL, KFFL and FFtoolbox).

NE was selected by 6 lists with only the bizarre NFL rankings not pickingthem. They weren't ranked lower than 6th otherwise.
GB was selected by 6 lists, with only the Analyzer not picking them. It was one that I had thought looked really, really good but the sacks/to wasn't terrific and the trend was midling. Still I think it's a solid pick.

HOU and SF were picked by 5 lists. KFFL and Analyzer did not pick HOU or SF. The trends for both HOU and MIN did not look favorable and so I couldn't quite put it up there but a lot of confidence on the other lists. SEA's trend analysis shows 4 below average games and SF has a bottom 10 sacks/to ratio with SEA.

SEA was chosen by 4 lists with ANalyzer, Kffl and Yahoo composite not picking SEA. SF has given only one breakout week in the last 8 games.
CIN was selected by 4 lists with NFL, Yahoo and Bleacher passing on the pick. Analyzer had it ranked second (gulp!). They have a top 10 sack/to ratio, 5 of last 6 as breakouts with PIT giving 5 straight above average games and 3 breakouts.
NYJ were selected by 4 lists with NFL, Michaels and Bleacher passing on the jets. SD provided 6 of last 8 games as breakouts and jets have 3 of last 5 as breakouts and they have a top 10 sack/to ratio going into the game.
WAS was selected 4 lists with NFL, KFFL and Yahoo not selecting them. They have a top 5 sack/to ratio and PHI has given 7 straight above average games with 4 breakouts. Still there's a caution flag here in that WAS hasn't been a very studly defense.

The teams selected by a majority of the lists are thus:
CHI, DEN, NE, GB, HOU, SF, SEA, CIN, NYJ and WAS

ARI was selected by only 3 lists (analyzer, KFFL and Yahoo composite).
Some of my favorite picks were really not well represented.
IND was ranked only by NFL (although ranked number one!) and they play KC this week. IND isn't the best of defenses but KC has been a very generous opponent.
MIA vs. BUF was ranked by only Bleacher and this was based almost solely on trends although 4 of last 5 as breakout with 6 of 7 above average is an awfully good trend!
And SD vs. NYJ did NOT appear on anyone else's lists. Caution flag! Traditionally, a change in qb yields turnovers and a third string qb to boot. But Analyzer is all alone with this one.
PIT and CAR were selected by 2 other lists with KFFL ranking CAR as 4th. PIT was ranked as high as 4th by the NFL lists.

Giants, OAK, KC, STL, BAL and ATL were all ranekd by only one lists with STL being ranked 2nd and BAL ranked 5th by the KFFL list. Approach all of these with caution as you should the SD pick.

Some interesting trends, KFFL and Analyzer were a bit more likely to pick together. NFL and Hawk Michaels blog were more like each other with HOU, GB, SF, SEA, CHI and DEN in common between their lists.



Where are you getting the toolbox data from? I see SD as number 2 here: http://www.fftoolbox.com/football/2012/ ... er_pos=DEF

Arizona, SD, NY, or Cinci?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 11:43 am

Whoops! The rest of their list is correct and so I must have just had a slip of the finger. Keystroke errors ftw!

So it's nice to see that someone else picked SD. :) Still, only 2 lists picked SD and I guess it lowers SF from 5 lists to 4 which also makes more sense.
Sorry!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby cabrego » Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:22 pm

prince_45243 wrote:Whoops! The rest of their list is correct and so I must have just had a slip of the finger. Keystroke errors ftw!

So it's nice to see that someone else picked SD. :) Still, only 2 lists picked SD and I guess it lowers SF from 5 lists to 4 which also makes more sense.
Sorry!


anythoughts on my question? arizona, cinci, NY, or SD?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Thu Dec 20, 2012 12:49 pm

I've edited the original post to update that SD did show up on another list.

cabrego wrote: anythoughts on my question? arizona, cinci, NY, or SD?


My thought is it's a tough question. :)
All are top 10 sack/to ratios with ARI being highest.
CIN has the best trend score (second highest of all matchups)

ARI 21.6ppg, 22 int, 36 sacks, 4 fumbles
CIN 20.9ppg, 11 INT, 43 sacks, 8 fumbles
ARI has 26 to's to CIN's 19. CIN has more sacks by 7. Tips to ARI

CHI produces 22.9ppg, 16 picks, 41 sacks and 3 fumbles
PIT produces 21.6ppg, 12 picks and 31 sacks, 8 fumbles
A wash on turnovers and ppg, CHI produces more sacks. Tip to ARI

ARI has had breakouts in weeks 11, 13 and 15 or ATL, NYJ and DET of whom ATL is top tier.
CIN has had breakouts in weeks 10, 11, 12, 13 and 15 NYG, KC, OAK, SD and PHI of which NYG are top tier.
Not sure if that tips either way. Pretty close.

CHI has given breakouts in weeks 11, 14 and 15 to SF, MIN and GB which are probably the same or lesser than ARI.
PIT has given breakouts in weeks 11, 12 and 14 BAL, CLE and SD all of which are probably lesser than CIN.
Again, pretty close here between the two. PIT has given above average games inbetween those as well.

ARI ranks higher than CIN in the KFFL and Yahoo composite ranking. Michaels and FFToolbox don't rank ARI but do CIN and Analyzer ranks CIN higher than ARI. Tips slightly to CIN.

It's a lot closer between these two than I would have thought and I'm not sure how better to differentiate. I guess I do lean to Cincy myself as my list shows but it's close enough that I'd have a hard time recommending it solidly.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby smoldering » Fri Dec 21, 2012 3:31 pm

With all the consternation on the high pick for CIN, I was wondering if you remembered that Big Ben missed a few games? This could easily account for most of PIT's recent generosity to defenses. Two of the three recent breakouts allowed were courtesy of Leftwich and Batch, with the third being Big Ben's comeback game (which could be considered shaking off the rust). Would it be possible to see how the stats matchup changes if you exclude the games Big Ben didn't start?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Dec 21, 2012 7:23 pm

smoldering wrote:With all the consternation on the high pick for CIN, I was wondering if you remembered that Big Ben missed a few games? This could easily account for most of PIT's recent generosity to defenses. Two of the three recent breakouts allowed were courtesy of Leftwich and Batch, with the third being Big Ben's comeback game (which could be considered shaking off the rust). Would it be possible to see how the stats matchup changes if you exclude the games Big Ben didn't start?


Sure, last 5 games with Big Ben:
Week 8: 1 point vs. WAS
Week 9: 14 points vs NYG
Week 10: 4 points vs KC
Week 14: 12 points vs SD
Week 15: 8 points vs DAL

NYG and SD have been top 10 defenses this year with CIN playing just about the same as them. KC WAS and DAL have been bottom tier defenses this year. Thus, PIT has given breakouts to top defenses of which CIN would theoretically count as well. However, in week 7, CIN only garnered 7 points. PIT had an advantage of playing against some weaker teams early on. They opened with DEN but then NYJ, OAK, PHI, TEN, before hitting more playoff quality teams like CIN, WAS, NYG.

Of course, I'm fine if folks don't want to chance vs. CIN and you're correct that I didn't sift down to that level when I created the original list.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby jacer333 » Sat Dec 22, 2012 12:55 pm

Would really appreciate some help here....Broncos or Packers tomorrow?
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby c1turbo » Sun Dec 23, 2012 4:21 pm

THANK YOU FOR YOUR WORK!!

Started SD Defense instead of Houston even with all the other systems ranking them ahead.

Your system was awesome! It made sense, I don't know how some of these other sites do it...probably just chalk it.

11 sacks, 1int, 1, fum, points held under 20. For 21 points!!!

Still have the 4 oclock and night game, but I got a good contribution with the defense!
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