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Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby mothaudio » Sun Dec 23, 2012 6:14 pm

Thanks. Played my fav Bolts even though CIN and IND were studs too.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Mon Dec 24, 2012 11:05 pm

Image

A great week for the Analyzer. 9/10 were above average with 8 breakouts which is better than all of the other systems that were available. My chargers pick held up very well as did the IND and MIA picks.

CHI and DEN were chosen by all 7 lists and both had breakouts
NE and GB were chosen by 6 lists and 1 above average, 1 breakout
HOU was selected by 5 lists and had a below average game.
CIN, NYJ, WAS, SF and SEA were selected by 4 lists and 3breakout/above average picks.

Thus of teams that were selected by 4 or more lists, 7/10were above average and 6/10 were breakouts.

Of those with 3 or fewer, ARI, IND, MIA, SD, PIT, CAR, NYG, OAK, KC, STL, BAL and ATL, 7 were breakouts and 9 were above average. or roughly 69% above average and 53% breakouts which is actually pretty close to the 4+ systems.

For the Record:
Week 5: Fantasy Fix was better than Analyzer, all others were worse or the same
Week 6: All systems but FFix was better than Analyzer.
Week 7: All systems but FFix was better than Analyzer
Week 8: Analyzer as good as KFFL, NFL and Yahoo. Analyzer better than FFtoolbox and FFix
Week 9: Analyzer beats all other systems
Week 10: Analyzer and NFL beats all other systems
Week 11: FFtoolbox beats Analyzer which ties with KFFL and Hawk Michaels blog
Week 12: No data
Week 13: All systems better than Analyzer
Week 14: KFFL and Yahoo beat Analyzer which ties with FFToolbox and beats the others
Week 15: Analyzer beats all other systems.
Week 16: Analyzer beats all other systems.

Of 11 weeks with data, Analyzer was worst only once but second to worst 2 more times
5 times the Analyzer beat all other systems or was tied for as good as some other system
3 times the Analyzer was second place with FFix being better once, FFtoolbox once, KFFL and yahoo beating Analyzer once.

While Analyzer fared very well this year, it's important to note that there are weeks that the Analyzer is the worst picker of the systems. However, no other system consistently beat the analyzer. It does look like early on (with less data), the Analyzer fared the worst.

Thanks to everyone for their support. I do this for my own league every year anyway so I'll likely keep it up in the future. Sorry I couldn't answer everyone's questions and private messages. Was traveling over the weekend and first chance to get on line now.

See you next year!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby ds1 » Fri Dec 28, 2012 9:39 pm

Started Cin over Ari (& others) thanks to my trusting you & the Analyzer. Won my league. Thanks for all your efforts!!!!!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 4:56 pm

ds1 wrote:Started Cin over Ari (& others) thanks to my trusting you & the Analyzer. Won my league. Thanks for all your efforts!!!!!


Congrats! I won my league starting SD and picking up IND so my opponent couldn't get that defense. I'm so sneaky!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby sabercats » Fri Jan 04, 2013 5:14 pm

Thanks Master Prince_45243, I also won my league. Keep up your great work and see you in September :-)
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby wtr23 » Fri Jan 04, 2013 10:35 pm

Who do you start this weekend on defense? I currently have Houston plugged in, but every other DEF that plays this week is available except for Baltimore.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby spookyman » Fri Aug 30, 2013 4:59 am

Will the defense analyzer be back this season? Really helped me out.
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby zjk924 » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:38 am

You know, I was just wondering about that myself... I already have a D question for week 1 haha
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby prince_45243 » Wed Sep 04, 2013 2:05 pm

It will be back but unfortunately, I need 4 weeks of data to make it work right so nothing until week 5. Combining data from multiple lists is good at predicting break out games but those lists currently have very little data in them and few of them are actually posting anything. I think using those is probably safest at this point.

The only other comment I can give is that historically there is over a 70% chance of a breakout game starting defenses that are opposing rookie QBs in their first game ever mid-season and about a 50% chance of a break out on season openers. That's better than the typical 10-30% chance of a breakout game most weeks.

BUF (Manuel) plays NE
OAK (Pryor) plays IND
NYJ (Geno Smith) plays TB - The Jets were also a stud to play against last year giving up an average of 12ppg.

Another mentionable is probably Jake Locker playing PIT. This seems ripe for a pick and low scoring game.

Good luck!
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Re: Defense Analyzer - Week 16 - FINAL THREAD

Postby spookyman » Thu Sep 05, 2013 1:26 pm

Sounds great! Just happy it's going to be back, I'll be rolling with the Colts this week.
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