by broseph jacobs » Sat Dec 22, 2012 10:23 am
RB's
DeAngelo Williams is no longer a fantasy option this week. First of all, last week's stat line was a fluke. It was the early 21-0 lead that allowed Williams to get all those touches, not to mention J Stewart's absence. Sure, Cam could get the Panthers out to an early lead once again since OAK is such an awful defense, but Jonathan Stewart is also back and will likely be gobbling up about 40% of the touches Williams would have gotten.
Law Firm is sledding much better (like he cares) now than he did the last time the Bengals met the Steelers (when BJE seemed to not even care). With Dalton's accuracy falling into the toilet in November and December, Law Firm's role has definitely increased in the Bengals offense. Unfortunately, he will have his toughest test against Dick LeBeau's defense this week, which ranks #5 in fantasy points allowed to RB's. In "reality", Pittsburgh is #4 against the run this season.
There's no chance you sit Ridley this week. His production is down as of late, but it's going to be just fine tomorrow against the absolute worst run defense in the league: JAX. People who talk about Belichick limiting Ridley's role after the fumble are taking things way too far. First of all, if you've watched Belichick's offense over the last decade, time and time again Brady will throw to a guy right after he drops one; a runner who fumbled will get carries again (remember Ridley getting a goal line carry against SF last week AFTER the fumble?) It's almost like clockwork. So, these statements of Belichick benching Ridley as if he's Tom Coughlin are ill-founded. Next, Woodhead is a solid ball-carrier in the rain, and it was pouring in Foxborough last week. That was more a factor in his touches than Ridley's "punishment." Finally, remember the Pats were down 31-3. What team still trying to win is going to run the ball when down by 28? Ridley will start tomorrow, and get a ton of touches (I'd wager 20-24) against the pitiful Jaguars front seven. The Patriots are going to dominate the Jaguars, if not the entire game than certainly by the fourth quarter. They should then use the run to burn clock. Start 'em. (I'd even pick Ridley to have a bigger day than Spiller.)
WR's
This is not the week to expect Fitzgerald to break his 2012 fantasy slump. It's tragic, but Larry is suffering from terrible QB troubles in ARI. If he does suddenly get a 100yd or 2 TD game, it's against all conventional wisdom: the Cards offense is rubbish, and the Chicago secondary is very opportunistic. Unfortunate, but he's still a sit.
Malcolm Floyd is hurt, so Antonio Cromardie will be covering Danario Alexander tomorrow. That's bad news for guys like you who were hoping last week's fantasy goose egg from Alexander would be turned around this week. Rivers will struggle, and Alexander will be catch-less (or close to it) again this week.
Take advantage of Hilton's matchup against KC. The Chiefs have packed it in for the year, especially on defense. They are the second-worst fantasy scoring defense in the NFL season-long; and their 14th-ranked defense against WR's is skewed towards the first part of the year: the last time they intercepted a pass was in week 12, last week's zero sacks was their first sack-less game since week 8, and their offense certainly isn't going to help keep the defense off the field (as usual). I would start T.Y. Hilton, who is the #7 fantasy WR over the past 5 weeks. This will likely be a nice game for him: either 100 yds receiving or a TD or 2. Start 'em.
Ridley and Hilton. Good luck.
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