Too much for Foster?

[duffoholic]

Hey guys,

I am in an auction style keeper league with two year contracts and rights to match (RTM) in the third year. This year I had Foster and Charles as my backs for most of the season while riding Newton through mediocrity to his strong finish on last year's 5$ contract. Next season I am planning to keep Russel Wilson (3$) and match or resign Newton (guessing around 15$). I'm a little worried about my cap room since I'll be keeping Gronk (9$), Wayne (8$) and matching Garcon (most likely 6-9$). We have 100$ total salary.

Now, for my question: Is 30$ too much for Foster? I feel like he wore down big time this season and is due for a serious injury with all that mileage on his legs (400+ carries I think). I can keep Charles for 16$ and try to grab Foster for less money or pick up somebody else tossed back into the market. AP, Martin, Richardson and Spiller are all locked up for sure but there should still be some talent out there. Do you think Foster can be a workhorse like this again next year or is he due for an injury? Also, if I do throw him back, could I get him cheaper? Did his value drop this season or stay the same?

Thanks for the help!

[Stevooo]

I don't think anyone will say his value dropped because of a couple rough weeks at the end of the season. I wouldnt hesitate to spend that much on a top RB.

[Indibuck]

His value didn't drop. He's one of the very few RBs that work all 3 downs and the goal line. Top-5 overall pick, regardless of format.

I personally think you're getting him on the cheap for $30.

Especially if you think he's either overvalued or due for a breakdown in 2013, now's a great time to keep him and then flip him for value later. His value will likely never be higher than it is right now.

[tantrix1969]

agree with above posts, $30 is by no means too much for Foster

[srlarson]

I think you keep foster......

as for the others....I'd let Wayne go.....still not sold on Wilson...but for $3 ok....I like Garcon, when he played this year he was a stud....

Good Luck!!

[duffoholic]

Thanks for the advice guys! I guess I was just worried about losing a 30$ player for the season on an injury that came from wear and tear after almost 1000 carries in three years. He is a stud though and just can't be replaced... except by AP but he's locked up next year.

As for Wayne, don't you think he'll gain value as Luck gets settled? He did have over 100 receptions this season! I know he's older but I think he's got another year in him. Thoughts?

[Cult of Dionysus]

While you can certainly identify risky players and shy away from them, I don't think that A. Foster falls into that category yet (unlike Percy Harvin, McFadden, Kevin Kolb, etc.).

[daullaz]

He's a keeper at $30 to me.

[duffoholic]

Thanks for all the advice guys. I talked myself into cutting him and then right back into keeping him. Having sole possession of goal line carries is enough to make him invaluable.

[Mizou]

Thanks for helping with mine!

I'm not big on auction styles, but my general philosophy with keepers and price is: Are you going to get better than Foster (not likely), or the same quality for cheaper (also not likely)? I think 30% of your total for arguably the #1 back in the game is a decently fair price. Like you said, the guys around his ability (AP et al) are locked up. Even if they weren't... would you be able to get AP for less than $30? I say stick with Foster.

You're absolutely right about his workload leading to increased injury risk... but that's true for pretty much all the top backs. I think, for the quality this guy is, it's just something you have to roll the dice on. Again, same is true for AP, Rice, and all the other top RBs with heavy workloads.