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Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby joejlitz » Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:05 pm

I would have liked to have seen LeShoure or Shorts fall to me.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby Indibuck » Wed Jan 16, 2013 7:55 pm

flotsamnjetsam wrote:
Indibuck wrote:Preferred Ryan over Manning here... But that is due more to the fact that I try to avoid QB/WR combos (I selected Thomas in the 2nd). Regardless, I see Manning and Ryan as the end of the elite QB tier, and felt compelled to select one of those guys here.



I have Stafford in the elite QB tier, so I was happy to get him at 5.10. He threw for just under 5000 yards, and his TD's were down from 2011, but I think they'll go up next year. I really like the Steve Smith pick. If I knew a QB wasn't going to be picked at the turn (I really thought 1 would be picked), I would've picked him and then Stafford at 6.03. To thrifty & TNF: Would either of you picked Stafford at the turn if I didn't pick him at 5.10?

With that said, I really like Shorts this year. He was the 20th ranked WR (fantasy points per game) in this scoring format, so I'm happy getting him as the 30th overall WR.


It took him 727 attempts to get there, though... Way more than any other QB in the league. He still finished only 9th at the position. Do you really think that he'll throw for more yards next year? I can see TDs going up a little bit, but I don't think you can reasonably expect a lot more TDs unless they address the WR2 and WR3 positions. One WR is unlikely to be back, the slot guy is coming off yet another torn ACL...

I just consider Stafford to be in the same tier as a few other guys, a step below the first 5 that went off the board. I think he is a solid QB1 with some downside that the elite guys don't have. Just my 2 cents.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby flotsamnjetsam » Wed Jan 16, 2013 8:23 pm

Indibuck wrote:
flotsamnjetsam wrote:
Indibuck wrote:Preferred Ryan over Manning here... But that is due more to the fact that I try to avoid QB/WR combos (I selected Thomas in the 2nd). Regardless, I see Manning and Ryan as the end of the elite QB tier, and felt compelled to select one of those guys here.



I have Stafford in the elite QB tier, so I was happy to get him at 5.10. He threw for just under 5000 yards, and his TD's were down from 2011, but I think they'll go up next year. I really like the Steve Smith pick. If I knew a QB wasn't going to be picked at the turn (I really thought 1 would be picked), I would've picked him and then Stafford at 6.03. To thrifty & TNF: Would either of you picked Stafford at the turn if I didn't pick him at 5.10?

With that said, I really like Shorts this year. He was the 20th ranked WR (fantasy points per game) in this scoring format, so I'm happy getting him as the 30th overall WR.


It took him 727 attempts to get there, though... Way more than any other QB in the league. He still finished only 9th at the position. Do you really think that he'll throw for more yards next year? I can see TDs going up a little bit, but I don't think you can reasonably expect a lot more TDs unless they address the WR2 and WR3 positions. One WR is unlikely to be back, the slot guy is coming off yet another torn ACL...

I just consider Stafford to be in the same tier as a few other guys, a step below the first 5 that went off the board. I think he is a solid QB1 with some downside that the elite guys don't have. Just my 2 cents.



I don't expect him to throw for more yards, but he had only 20 TD's in 2012 after having 41 TD's in 2011. I think he's gonna end up with 30+ in 2013, and I think they already have decent options that could be very good at the WR2 & WR3 positions (if these 2 unnamed players that got injured last year come back healthy...and I'm not talking about the one that is unlikely to be back). Also, the difference between the 9th ranked QB and the 4th ranked QB was less than 2 fantasy points per game. Just another reason why I almost never take a QB early...and just my .02 as well! ;-D
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby murphysxm » Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:01 pm

flotsamnjetsam wrote: Also, the difference between the 9th ranked QB and the 4th ranked QB was less than 2 fantasy points per game. Just another reason why I almost never take a QB early...and just my .02 as well! ;-D


I think this actually (and I completely agree) speaks to not drafting Stafford or Ryan or Manning in this point of draft. There are about 6-7 Qb's I see no difference in. There are undrafted QB's that very well will out perform all the 3 of the ones recently taken. I have ALWAYS been a wait on QB kind of guy, but this year more so than ever. If I don't get a top 3 QB, I won't draft one until round 7-8 and I will go QBBC. I thought the value of Brees at 2.7 was great, so I grabbed him. That being said there are still 5+ QB's I would be completely happy with as my QB1.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby flotsamnjetsam » Wed Jan 16, 2013 9:39 pm

murphysxm wrote:
flotsamnjetsam wrote: Also, the difference between the 9th ranked QB and the 4th ranked QB was less than 2 fantasy points per game. Just another reason why I almost never take a QB early...and just my .02 as well! ;-D


I think this actually (and I completely agree) speaks to not drafting Stafford or Ryan or Manning in this point of draft. There are about 6-7 Qb's I see no difference in. There are undrafted QB's that very well will out perform all the 3 of the ones recently taken. I have ALWAYS been a wait on QB kind of guy, but this year more so than ever. If I don't get a top 3 QB, I won't draft one until round 7-8 and I will go QBBC. I thought the value of Brees at 2.7 was great, so I grabbed him. That being said there are still 5+ QB's I would be completely happy with as my QB1.



Yeah, I see that point as well. I decided to take a QB early (yes this was kinda early for me) for 2 reasons. One was because after Stafford, there are only 2 undrafted QB's that I'd be really comfortable with as my QB1 (and I think Stafford has the most upside of the 3), and I didn't think all 3 would make it back to me at the round 7/round 8 turn. The 2nd reason was that I wanted to try a different strategy in this mock. Normally, I would've done exactly what you said. If I don't get a top 3 QB, I'll wait until rounds 7-8 (or even later) to pick one, and then I'll take my QB2 a little earlier than normal and play QBBC. In this mock I wanted to see what my team would look like by drafting most of my starters 1st. If this was a real draft, 9 (or 10) times out of 10 I would've picked WR and then a backup RB (or vice-versa) in rounds 5-6 (after picking 2 RB's & 2WR's in the 1st 4 rounds).
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby stomperrob » Thu Jan 17, 2013 3:54 pm

I like the Blackmon pick - had him on my shortlist.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby moochman » Thu Jan 17, 2013 4:15 pm

flotsamnjetsam wrote:
murphysxm wrote:
flotsamnjetsam wrote: Also, the difference between the 9th ranked QB and the 4th ranked QB was less than 2 fantasy points per game. Just another reason why I almost never take a QB early...and just my .02 as well! ;-D


I think this actually (and I completely agree) speaks to not drafting Stafford or Ryan or Manning in this point of draft. There are about 6-7 Qb's I see no difference in. There are undrafted QB's that very well will out perform all the 3 of the ones recently taken. I have ALWAYS been a wait on QB kind of guy, but this year more so than ever. If I don't get a top 3 QB, I won't draft one until round 7-8 and I will go QBBC. I thought the value of Brees at 2.7 was great, so I grabbed him. That being said there are still 5+ QB's I would be completely happy with as my QB1.



Yeah, I see that point as well. I decided to take a QB early (yes this was kinda early for me) for 2 reasons. One was because after Stafford, there are only 2 undrafted QB's that I'd be really comfortable with as my QB1 (and I think Stafford has the most upside of the 3), and I didn't think all 3 would make it back to me at the round 7/round 8 turn. The 2nd reason was that I wanted to try a different strategy in this mock. Normally, I would've done exactly what you said. If I don't get a top 3 QB, I'll wait until rounds 7-8 (or even later) to pick one, and then I'll take my QB2 a little earlier than normal and play QBBC. In this mock I wanted to see what my team would look like by drafting most of my starters 1st. If this was a real draft, 9 (or 10) times out of 10 I would've picked WR and then a backup RB (or vice-versa) in rounds 5-6 (after picking 2 RB's & 2WR's in the 1st 4 rounds).


My concern with Stafford is that the Lions want to run more, including in the redzone. Last year they saw an increase in rushing TDs. Also for reasons that defy common sense, they seem to go away from Calvin in the redzone. Stafford still has a very high ceiling since his D will prolly still let up a ton of points and I don't see Leshoure as a game breaking RB.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby daullaz » Thu Jan 17, 2013 6:49 pm

7.01 is definitely high for Wilson, but with Bradshaw still hanging around, I couldn't pass up the chance to draft NYG RB1 for my second RB slot by spending both picks on the pair.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby murphysxm » Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:55 am

7.06, RGIII. Honestly I wanted TY Hilton, but lost out on him. I then decided RGIII was too great of an upside pick to let slide. Even in a mock, I can't let value like to the guys that sat on the QB position.
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Re: Mock Draft Discussion/Analysis

Postby stomperrob » Fri Jan 18, 2013 12:32 pm

murphysxm wrote:7.06, RGIII. Honestly I wanted TY Hilton, but lost out on him. I then decided RGIII was too great of an upside pick to let slide. Even in a mock, I can't let value like to the guys that sat on the QB position.


I thought long and hard about RGIII - decided that if this was a real fantasy draft today I wouldn't grab him due to concerns about his injury so I went the safe route and grabbed Luck. Closer to the regular season if he seems to be okay I wouldn't hesitate to grab him.
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