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REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby mycuccismells » Thu Jan 10, 2013 8:59 am

duffoholic wrote:I get that it is insane to overshoot on kickers BUT if the other keepers would just be taking up spots better filled by somebody else, why not get the pick out of the way. These are last round picks we are talking about right? What I mean to say is that sometimes keeping a mediocre player for the sake of keeping somebody isn't good. Sometimes it's fun to reset your roster. I'm in an auction style keeper and I know I've kept players, mostly flyer type receivers, because they were only a dollar or two only to hold onto them the whole next season because they were always 'almost there'. That's how I feel about keeping one of those QB's. Their situations could be completely different by next season so spending a pick on them when you could just as easily pick the better of them up in late rounds next year doesn't make a tonne of sense to me. Taking a kicker now means he won't have to waste one of those late round picks next year on a kicker and since, as you pointed out, kickers are all so close together, it shouldn't make a difference if Walsh doesn't 'light it up' next season. Looking back on it, Hernandez is the better of the two choices regardless but if you feel like he won't hold his own next year under Gronk's shadow...

I wouldn't be making this argument if the picks were attached to a round or had a real penalty. Does that make any sense or am I still crazy?


You are definitely still crazy, and to be honest that proves my point. You aren't getting a round penalty so basically if you keep a kicker then you are keeping an 18th round pick and paying an 18th round pick. Sure you may get the best guy in the 18th round when you would have got the worst but that difference is only a point or two a game. If you keep any of the other guys that would normally be drafted in those rounds of 7-10 and now you get them in the 18th then thats some real value. Keepers are all about getting the best value, not necessarily the best player, and there is no value in keeping a kicker.

Also remember that by keeping guys he doesnt give up any picks early in the draft, he just loses one round of drafting off the tail end, this is VERY important. If he keeps 5 guys then the last round of the draft for him is the 13th round, which is where he will take a kicker. Some people will take guys that cost 2-3 units and therefore only have 3-4 keepers meaning their draft will end in round 14 or 15, which is where they will take a kicker. By default he is choosing his kicker 1-2 round before a lot of people (depending on their keepers) so there is a good shot he will have a kicker of his choice.

I think also the biggest key is that you are under the assumption that he is deciding between mediocre players. The 4 super obvious keepers are Harvin, Decker, Morris, and Hernandez because they will all be drafted in the first 4-5 rounds next year. That leaves us with Wilson, Kaepernick, Hilton, Garcon, Bradshaw who will all be drafted in the first 10 rounds (maybe not those QBs). Wilson, Kaepernick, Hilton are probably the worst on paper but they are all young guys which means their future is bright; they could be decent keepers for a few years.

Plus if he keeps someone like Bradshaw he can have 2 solid RB, 2 solid WR and a top 5 TE. By the 10th round he will have a stacked team and then he can reach for Walsh all he wants, if anyone takes him before then they are nuts
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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby Captain Eddie » Thu Jan 10, 2013 9:17 am

You convinced me. I won't be keeping a kicker, even though as a Vikings homer, I would love to have Walsh again next year, but like you said, I should be able to get him 12-13th round.

Not that it really matters, but in addition to a DEF, we also have to start a LB and a DB, so I will need to spend 4 of my 13 picks on a K, DB, LB and DEF. I am convinced only one other owner will be keeping 5 players, so chances are good I will have my choice of K, DB and LB in those later rounds. DEF I am not so sure as one guy picked a DEF in round 5 last year.

The psychology of a draft is funny as well. Many owners are sheep. Last year, one guy picked his 2nd QB in round 7. I think the next 5 picks were all backup QBs (I remember this well as I had not picked a QB yet....and was screwed by my own actions on that one). Same sheep behavior when the first DB was picked.

While I am really not excited about Bradshaw, the strategy makes sense. Keeping 2 WR and 2 RB and one TE would allow me to pick best available the first 4-5 rounds, and not having to reach for need..even if that means not drafting a QB until the middle rounds and ending up with Wilson or Kaepernick.

What say you about not keeping Hernandez and taking Jimmy Graham in the first round? With him or Gronk it is basically like getting WR numbers from the TE. Or I keep Hernandez and take Graham anyway but only in the second round if available...could use AH for trade bait down the road.
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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby daullaz » Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:01 am

You're still crazy. You can fill the spot with any of those players and pay the same price -- better to spend it on a more valuable commodity. Even if you think that commodity will take up a spot that you want to give someone else, you still have a better trade chip. You'll get a lot more in trade talks for Hernandez, Wilson, Decker, etc. than you will Walsh.
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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby mycuccismells » Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:38 pm

Hey if you want Walsh so you can root for someone on your home team then more power to you, reach for him in the 10th round. I wouldnt do it but even if you do its a better strategy than keeping him because you arent going to be able to get any of these other guys in the 10th round if you send them back. If deciding between 2 keepers you like guess where you can get them if you want to in the draft next year and keep the guy who would require the earlier pick to get back, thats value at its most fundamental level.

If people are followers then definitely use that to your advantage. Instead of waiting for someone else to kick that off you be the one that takes the lead. Draft a defense in the 9th round knowing that everyone else will draft a defense too, when it comes back to you no meaningful player would have been taken off the board and by leading the way you got first crack at defense. Same point can be made with the defensive players and kicker, take them a little earlier knowing that most people are going to be followers and do the same and then it doesnt really hurt you. Plus with your keepers and 8 rounds of picks under your belt you shoudl have a solid enough team to afford to do that even if it backfires once or twice

The bradshaw pick also could be heavily influenced by whether he gets moved this offseason, there are talks that he might. If he goes to a team where he would be the lead dog then hes a no brainer, if he has AB and DW breathing down his neck all season then its a little dicey. Either way hes a top 20 RB which means he is a top 7-8 round pick which makes him a decent enough keeper, especially if he is your RB3.

I wouldn't take Graham in the first round, MAYBE Gronk but definitely not Graham. If you pick up a solid RB in the first round then maybe Graham in the second, if you grab Calvin in the first then i would go RB in the second. I think Hernandez, if healthy, wont be too far behind the Gronk's and Grahams of the world and can give you a solid 10-12 every single week. He wont have as many breakout weeks but he will be steadily good which is all you really need at TE.

In the end there is no telling how your draft will go, but i think your first round plays the draft out for you. Picking keepers is all about setting you up to let the draft come to you, because drafts are unpredictable. By having 2 starting caliber RBs and WRs and a starting TE that allows you to reach for guys if you want a little if you believe in them, rather than drafting for need. If the top 6-7 RBs are either kept or drafted and Calvin is off the board then maybe you even reach and take a Brees in the first round
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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby duffoholic » Fri Jan 11, 2013 10:52 am

Now it feels like you are aiding my point! Hahaha. If his last pick is in the 13th round, where other guys are still 2-3 or even 4 rounds from completion, I'd rather be able to pick up another sleeper than have to take a kicker if my debate is between keeping him and keeping a mid-bottom tier backup QB?
I get what you're saying but I still disagree, especially about Bradshaw. That guy could be playing backup to Doug Martin by this time next season. Who knows. Since he has to make these picks now, why not take a player he knows is going to produce and save himself the pick later.

Regardless, at the end of the day I'd be keeping:
Morris
Harvin
Hilton
Decker
Hernandez
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Re: REVISED! EMERGENCY HELP NEEDED.

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Jan 11, 2013 12:37 pm

duffoholic wrote:Now it feels like you are aiding my point! Hahaha. If his last pick is in the 13th round, where other guys are still 2-3 or even 4 rounds from completion, I'd rather be able to pick up another sleeper than have to take a kicker if my debate is between keeping him and keeping a mid-bottom tier backup QB?
I get what you're saying but I still disagree, especially about Bradshaw. That guy could be playing backup to Doug Martin by this time next season. Who knows. Since he has to make these picks now, why not take a player he knows is going to produce and save himself the pick later.

Regardless, at the end of the day I'd be keeping:
Morris
Harvin
Hilton
Decker
Hernandez


Im assuming in this format most guys keep 3-4 guys, meaning they will be keeping Kickers and Defenses in the 13/14/15 rounds. He can easily wait until rounds 12/13 and get decent guys at that position but if he has his heart set on Walsh then reaching a round or two earlier guarantees that, even though its a bad strategy in my mind.

And your idea of being able to take a sleeper in the last round instead of a kicker is backwards. You can keep Bradshaw and draft a kicker in the 13th round or you can keep a kicker and draft a "sleeper" in the 13th round. You may not think very much of Bradshaw but i can guarantee you that he is a better prospect than anyone thats going to be left in the 13th round.

Every kicker is going to produce, and every kicker is going to produce VERY similarly. On the other hand Bradshaw is going to produce more than anyone you can get in the 13th round, outside of a little blind luck. ADP on bradshaw will probably be in the 60-70 range, for Walsh it will be in the 160-170 range.
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