I'm in a 12-team, keeper league (max. 3 per team each year). We use a variant of a 'lose the round the player was drafted in' rule as our criteria for penalties when keeping players (the longer the player is kept - the higher the penalty added onto the round he was drafted in). For next year's draft, I have the 3rd pick in our re-draft and before last weekend my keepers were more or less set in stone. I am beginning to rethink things after Kaepernick's display vs Green Bay and his performances since he was given the stating job though.
I would usually keep Ray Rice for a 1st Round penalty, but I know that the two ahead of me are going to 'throw back' Adrian Peterson and Calvin Johnson and pick them up again in the re-draft so that they can use their 3 other keeper spots for other members of their roster. I am going to do the same with Rice so I can get the best value out of the rest of my current squad. If either pick him up, worst case scenario is I have the consensus no.1 RB or the consensus no.1 WR on my roster next year.
My other options are; Dez Bryant (5th Round Penalty) CJ Spiller (7th Round Penalty) Demaryius Thomas (3rd Round Penalty) Colin Kaepernick (15th Round Penalty)
The first two are no-brainers, but my problem lies with the last 2. My issue lies with how 'elite' Kaepernick can become over the course of his career. If he breaks the top-5 in terms of Fantasy Production from here on in, I'd be foolish not to keep him for, probably, the rest of his career with a low keeper penalty. On the other hand, I reckon if I go with Thomas I have a decent shot at picking up one of the Big 3 QBs (Rodgers/Brady/Brees) with my second pick as only 2 people drafting after me in Round 1 and before me in Round 2 are either keeping a QB (Luck, Stafford, Wilson, Cam, RGIII, Peyton Manning) or do not have a pick in the first 2 rounds. If none of these fall to me, I may be forced to 'reach' for a QB in the 4th or even 2nd round. If I do keep Kaepernick, I know for a fact Thomas will not fall to me in the 2nd round, so I'm worried about the calibre of WR that will be left by the time it comes to my second pick.
Does anyone have any advice or opinions on the matter? Thanks
Definitely throw Rice back, i think that is the no-brainer part of this scenario. You are using a 3rd overall pick on him by keeping him which is exactly where his value is, with keepers you are looking to obtain extra value. Knowing that you can get AP/Foster/Rice/Lynch/Martin/Calvin with that 3rd pick no matter what means it isnt good strategy to keep him
Personally i would keep Kaepernick just because of how low of a pick he will cost you and the fact that he is still young. Thomas may be the slightly better play for this year but by next year keeping him as a 2nd round pick may not prove valuable. If CK keeps his job he could easily be a keeper for the next 5-6 years and you have your QB wrapped up for the future using a late round pick every year.
Hard to fully tell without the complete picture of your league and getting an idea of who might be thrown back to you. Could you possibly get someone like a Vincent Jackson next year?? He could probably be had in the 2nd round if no one keeps him and a core of CK, Rice, Spiller, Dez and Jackson wouldnt be anything to sneeze at.
Thanks fellas. Two replies - two differing opinions; highlights my dilemma!!
Trying to predict the way the draft will go, I think this is the sort of options I might have in the second round;
QB: One of the top 3 Romo, Roethlisberger, Freeman, Rivers, Eli, Freeman, Kaepernick (if I throw him back)
RB: McFadden Mathews BJGE McGahee Greene R. Bush
WR: Wayne Colston Welker Nelson Garçon Crabtree D Jackson
I have put out a few feelers to see what I could get in return for Kaepernick (draft picks), but nothing has come back yet, and I know the other managers are loathe to give up high draft picks for players.
I would keep Thomas since I think top 5 is a little ambitious for a guy like CK. I feel like his production peaks around top ten meaning that he's a decent bottom tier QB1 or a solid backup. If you think you can get one of the big boys at the QB position in the draft with Spiller, Rice/Lynch/AP (whoever you get), Dez and Thomas, I think your roster is looking pretty solid. Depending on how this round of the playoffs goes for CK I could see his value coming back down to Earth for next season anyway so odds are decent you can pick him up again late next season, not 15th round, sure, but still late enough to make him a worthy keeper if he does keep up this kind of production.
I think it really comes down to whether you want a good keeper for next year or you want someone you can use for the next 5-6 years. Im thinking of keeping Wilson in my keeper league for exactly that reason, he would cost me a 14th round pick this year then 12/10/8/6 so i can keep him for 5 years before he costs me any more than a 6th round pick. I have Spiller as a 7th and Morris as a 13th already so even though I HATE using a keeper on a QB i think the value is right there and i have met my RB need with my other keepers.
Kaep could fall off next year, as could Wilson, but they could also use this experience build on it and become solid QBs. In recent years its been hard to find a QB that can put up great numbers with his legs AND his arm, usually its one or the other, and these guys both fit that bill. You have to figure that their accuracy and decision making will only get better and their legs wont regress much (if at all), which to me means the needle is pointing up for both of them.
I think they can both move into that top 5-6 QB range which makes them top 5-6 round picks in a standard draft. Anytime im getting 5th-6th round value with a pick in the double digit rounds i would say thats a pretty good value. Thomas is probably a late second or early third round pick in standard drafts so keeping him with a 3rd round pick really isnt anything special. Keepers are aobut value, not necessarily taking the best player
Not to mention that if the draft goes as you say then you will have plenty of options later on. If you can get something like Wayne in the 2nd and BJGE on the turn in the third you would be in good shape. A roster of Spiller/Rice/BJGE/Dez/Wayne/Kaep is a great starting lineup in any league. Not only that but it makes all of your keepers 5th round or later which means you can keep that core of Spiller/Dez/Kaep together for another year or two if you want and have that stability
Thanks for all your feedback. A couple of thing have happened since my initial query;
1. Welker has gone to Denver - does this hamper Thomas's FF value? 2. The guy at 2 has told me he'll probably take Rice so I'll be left with Calvin, which isn't a bad thing, but I'm worried about pairing Spiller with someone like Bush or Ivory. 3. And most importantly, I've been offered a trade - Peterson and the overall no. 1 pick (so I can throw him back, keep 3 others, pick him up and be able to keep him for the next 3 years) for my first round pick (3rd overall) and Colin Kaepernick!!
If I go with the trade I'll start off with AP & Spiller at RB and Dez & Thomas at WR then picks 2.9, 4.9, 6.9, 8.9 onwards. With 6 out of the 9 drafters keeping QBs (Stafford, Peyton, Wilson, Newton, Luck, RG3) and one with no pick in Rounds 1,2 or 3, there's a very good possibility that one of Rodgers, Brees or Brady will fall to me in R2.
My potential trade partner has said that nothing else is on offer as he's traded away other high picks for the upcoming draft and doesn't want to lose any more, so it's "take it or leave it".
I'm leaning more towards one way at the moment, but some advice would be very much appreciated. Thanks
You are right Dez and Spiller are no brainers. The better value would be Kaepernick unfortunately also more risk involved. But considering Thomas is basically a one year move throw him back in take a chance that Kaepernick will become elite.