Keep Blackmon or David Wilson?

[Stiltz]

First time poster but long time FF player. This seems like a good board so I thought I'd ask some advice for one of my keeper leagues next season.

I'm in a 16 team standard scoring keeper league with return yards (1 pt. per 30 yards) included. I have to submit next seasons keepers by the Super Bowl, which poses a problem because I don't know next years ADP etc. We can keep 3 players for 3 seasons each.

My choices have been narrowed down to: Colin Kaepernick, DeMarco Murray, David Wilson, and Justin Blackmon. I'm pretty sure I'll be holding onto Kaepernick and Murray, so that leaves Blackmon or Wilson in my final keeper spot.

Word is that Wilson could be the top dog in NY next year, and if so, he could hold huge value. If not, he'll still see the ball a lot and will most likely resume kick returns. As for Blackmon, he looks like he could be great, but the QB situation is very worrying and I have no idea how the Jags will address that in the offseason. Unfortunately, I don't have the luxury of seeing how things will unfold in the offseason.

I could always keep them both and leave Murray as the odd man out. I don't like that idea too much though because I think Murray is going to break out and hopefully actually stay healthy. I'm not considering dropping Kaepernick.

This league also allows future draft pick trades, so I traded most of my player assets for 2013/14 draft picks- mostly because I inherited a crappy team this season (that just ended) and knew I couldn't compete for the money. I ended up acquiring two 2nd rounders and three 3rd rounders while still keeping my 1st. This means that one of my keepers may not even be in my starting lineup most weeks, outside of injury. Therefore, I think should keep the one with the most upside. Which one do you think has more potential to really break out?

[murphysxm]

Glad you stocked up on picks, because my guess is you are starting in a hole. I would probably keep Blackmon since you already have a RB and neither is a slam dunk guarantee for production. I'd rather have the roster flexibility come draft day,

ps - I don't get leagues that require keepers to be nominated this early. You need the off season to see how roles and opportunities shake out

[dblj9911]

Well this is a tough call on your two keepers, and to have to have them in by the Super Bowl is tougher. With Wilson in a potential rbbc, that could hurt his value. Blackmon has his second coach, new offense and his qb is unknown at the time, and Larry Fitzgerald proves you need a half way decent qb to have value.
If its me I'm taking a flyer on Wilson and hoping that he dies become the lead rb there. I have a feeling that the NY Giants are going to cut or severely limit Bradshaws touches with his injury history. If that happens Wilson's value could go up. Good luck.

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[11stever11]

Welcome to the Cafe
I would go with David Wilson. I think it is much easier to find a RB2 then a WR2 on draft day. He does present some risk, but you do not have to rely on him, so it is worth the gamble for the high reward.

[PatriotsGirl]

Another vote for Wilson.

[mycuccismells]

Another vote for it being stupid to announce your keepers this early. So much changes throughout the off season that at this point its a crap shoot and really has no benefit at all. That being said i would have to keep Wilson, especially because of the return yardage. Im not convinced Blackmon is ever going to be great, maybe WR3 at best, where Wilson can easily be a RB2 if he gets the work