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TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby moochman » Sat Feb 02, 2013 2:43 pm

Free John Beck wrote:When there are 1 or 2 players that are so much better than everyone else at the TE position..........yes. Gronk was on pace for a similar year this year before the injury, so it's not like it was 1 flash in the pan season.



We're all aware of that, but career years are seldom repeated. Wether Ds adjust, structure of your O changes, or health concerns the stars don't line up that well again.
Its not like you don't have a point, and that taking a uber stud TE late 1st rnd isn't tempting. You asked why not, we gave you opinions. The merit of which will be determined over time.
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby Free John Beck » Sun Feb 03, 2013 12:19 am

Yeah that's cool. It wouldn't be much fun if we all had the same opinion. My opinion may be a little biased. I drafted Gronk in the 2nd this past year and was in first place in my league until he got hurt. Ended up in 3rd and was knocked out of the playoffs in the first round by the 6 seed.
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby moochman » Sun Feb 03, 2013 2:59 pm

Free John Beck wrote:Yeah that's cool. It wouldn't be much fun if we all had the same opinion. My opinion may be a little biased. I drafted Gronk in the 2nd this past year and was in first place in my league until he got hurt. Ended up in 3rd and was knocked out of the playoffs in the first round by the 6 seed.


That's funny, I drafted Gronk early two and was pretty disappointed with his early production. Of course the rest of my team did nothing to pick up the slack so I needed the best Gronk every week. Unrealistic expectations on my part, but desparation can do that. :-b
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby joejlitz » Sun Feb 03, 2013 5:35 pm

moochman wrote:
Free John Beck wrote:I understand what you're saying, but WR is really deep. You can get a much higher quality WR in the 5th and 6th round than you can a TE. My thinking for the first 4 rounds is 2 RBs, 1WR, and 1 TE (order depending on draft position, but TE late 1st or 2nd round). QB and 2nd and 3rd WRs can wait.


You lose 60pts immediately when you take Gronk or Graham vs Bryant, Green, Thomas at the end of the first, start of the second. You're not getting those points back. by the middle rounds the pts differential for taking a mid tier TE or WR evens out. So it seems to me that you get better value waiting and taking a less than TE later.

I don't know Mooch. I think you get those points back. If you take Jimmy Graham and he gets you 153 (as he did in the Tundra) and your opponent waits on Gresham (103) or Gates (96) or V. Davis (85) or Finley (77)...all guys expected to do pretty well..., you make up a lot of points right there. And the key is beating your opponents, so having the best guy at the position will always guarantee you more points.

You just have to be savvy enough to draft well at the other positions.
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby Free John Beck » Sun Feb 03, 2013 8:54 pm

^^^^^^^^^Bingo!

Thanks for illiterating my point better than I could. Lol.
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby moochman » Mon Feb 04, 2013 5:54 pm

joejlitz wrote:
moochman wrote:
Free John Beck wrote:I understand what you're saying, but WR is really deep. You can get a much higher quality WR in the 5th and 6th round than you can a TE. My thinking for the first 4 rounds is 2 RBs, 1WR, and 1 TE (order depending on draft position, but TE late 1st or 2nd round). QB and 2nd and 3rd WRs can wait.


You lose 60pts immediately when you take Gronk or Graham vs Bryant, Green, Thomas at the end of the first, start of the second. You're not getting those points back. by the middle rounds the pts differential for taking a mid tier TE or WR evens out. So it seems to me that you get better value waiting and taking a less than TE later.

I don't know Mooch. I think you get those points back. If you take Jimmy Graham and he gets you 153 (as he did in the Tundra) and your opponent waits on Gresham (103) or Gates (96) or V. Davis (85) or Finley (77)...all guys expected to do pretty well..., you make up a lot of points right there. And the key is beating your opponents, so having the best guy at the position will always guarantee you more points.

You just have to be savvy enough to draft well at the other positions.


In my league there were pleny of TEs that scored around 110pts to Grahams 161 there to be had pretty late. Heath Miller, Olsen, Myers, Pitta, Rudolph, and even Daniels. So my argument would be that it is easier to find reliable production out of the TE position later in the draft than from a WR or RB. I just don't see the overall value.
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Re: TE in the 1st round in 2013......Why not?

Postby dream_017 » Tue Feb 05, 2013 3:24 pm

moochman wrote:I just don't see the over value.


Fixed ;-)
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