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Amendola a Good Investment?

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Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby wtr23 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 8:44 pm

Evening guys,


as you know I joined a dynasty league recently and we are doing a slow draft. I really think Amendola will have a good year with the patriots, but is it enough of a concern to trade for him? We can potentially start 5 WRs. My roster looks like this so far:
QB- Wilson
RB- Foster
RB- Gore
WR- D. Thomas
WR- Marshall
WR- J. Jones (GB)

I also have the 7th pick in the rookie draft. Could I possibly bundle Jones and the 1.7 for Amendola, or do you think thats a bad deal with the injury history? Help me out here, WHIR
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby Indibuck » Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:30 pm

Going into every season, there's always a player or two that embody the whole risk vs. reward scenario. This year it's Danny Amendola.

For what it's worth, I don't think you will be able to get Amendola for Jones/1.07.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby wtr23 » Tue Mar 19, 2013 10:46 pm

Fair enough, I guess I'll have to wait a little longer before I can start making offers. At this point Jones would be the only one I'd trade, anything more seems like a loss. Maybe I can pair a couple players with the rookie pick later.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby duffoholic » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:37 am

I don't really understand the idea of making trades for guys you just picked up in a draft. It seems to me you would almost always be overpaying since the other guy drafted the player they clearly like them. There hasn't been enough time to fall out of love with your roster yet! Ha!

I think Jones should be a TD guy again this year possibly picking some of the yards lost to Jennings last season. He seems like a solid investment. If the TE's stay healthy in New England I could see Amendola being a second thought for Brady, putting him towards risk along that risk-reward spectrum. Brady has weapons all over the place and tends to throw a lot to the guys he's comfortable with. If it takes some time for that to develop with Amendola, you could get him for much cheaper around week 6. That's just how I see things going.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby wtr23 » Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:48 am

Couldn't agree more. I imagine at first Amendola having a year similar to Lloyd (sometimes he scored, other times he wasn't really there). I'll let some time pass before I come back to this one.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby mycuccismells » Wed Mar 20, 2013 4:08 pm

wtr23 wrote:Couldn't agree more. I imagine at first Amendola having a year similar to Lloyd (sometimes he scored, other times he wasn't really there). I'll let some time pass before I come back to this one.


I would disagree with this, i think the only risk/reward lies in the health of Amendola. They have decimated their receiving core to the point where its the tight ends and Amendola and pretty much no one else. If Amendola stays healthy then he can be a WR1 this year in my opinion, and if either of those TEs gets injured again that opens the door even more.

That being said i agree with the sentiment that its pointless to start trading guys mid-draft as you will probably overpay. If it gets to the end of the draft and you see that you are a little light at say WR and heavy at another position then maybe but typically if someone drafts someone it just means they liked them more than you did.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby srlarson » Thu Mar 21, 2013 12:54 pm

amendola may get a lot of receptions...but i see his TD production in the 3-5 range....so if a PPR then he has increased value....but in yardage leagues hes a WR 2-3, solid 80-100 yards a week, with a touchdown once a month.....not enough to give up too much....Jones will have more TD's that him....but no where near the catches or yards.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Mar 22, 2013 7:35 am

srlarson wrote:amendola may get a lot of receptions...but i see his TD production in the 3-5 range....so if a PPR then he has increased value....but in yardage leagues hes a WR 2-3, solid 80-100 yards a week, with a touchdown once a month.....not enough to give up too much....Jones will have more TD's that him....but no where near the catches or yards.


I think you are cutting him a little short by saying that he will get 3-5 TDS when Brady is throwing 35-40 a year. He had 3 TDs in 11 games last year, which puts him around that 4-5 TD mark if he played a whole season. Keep in mind that was with Bradford only throwing 20 TDs, you go to a QB who throws twice as many TDs and naturally his numbers will go up, if he plays a whole season i say he gets in that 7-8 TD range.
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby srlarson » Fri Mar 22, 2013 10:13 am

ok maybe a tad low.....but Welker was never a big TD guy.......

Year Welker Brady
12 6 34
11 9 39
10 7 36
09 4 28
08 3 ---

so you are looking at that position somewhere in the 10-20% of the TD's thrown by Brady...... so if assuming the high side of Brady 40 tds you are looking 4-8....not a #1 WR.......more like a low WR2 to high wr3, then throw in the Injury issue......Buyer beware!!
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Re: Amendola a Good Investment?

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Mar 22, 2013 12:01 pm

srlarson wrote:ok maybe a tad low.....but Welker was never a big TD guy.......

Year Welker Brady
12 6 34
11 9 39
10 7 36
09 4 28
08 3 ---

so you are looking at that position somewhere in the 10-20% of the TD's thrown by Brady...... so if assuming the high side of Brady 40 tds you are looking 4-8....not a #1 WR.......more like a low WR2 to high wr3, then throw in the Injury issue......Buyer beware!!


Interesting stuff, didnt realize that Welker's TD numbers were THAT low. Still if you take the last 4 years hes over 18% of his touchdowns so it would be the higher end of the 8 TD range. One could also argue that Amendola has a few inches on Welker and that hes a better down field target, where Welker was more of a move the chains type of guy.

Either way I step back a bit from that WR1 label i put on him before, but i would still expect a solid WR2. Maybe somewhere around the 90 catches to go along with 1300 yards and 7-8 TDs. Totally agree with the injury issues though which is why personally i wont be taking him unless he slips a bit.
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