srlarson wrote:ok maybe a tad low.....but Welker was never a big TD guy.......
Year Welker Brady
12 6 34
11 9 39
10 7 36
09 4 28
08 3 ---
so you are looking at that position somewhere in the 10-20% of the TD's thrown by Brady...... so if assuming the high side of Brady 40 tds you are looking 4-8....not a #1 WR.......more like a low WR2 to high wr3, then throw in the Injury issue......Buyer beware!!
Interesting stuff, didnt realize that Welker's TD numbers were THAT low. Still if you take the last 4 years hes over 18% of his touchdowns so it would be the higher end of the 8 TD range. One could also argue that Amendola has a few inches on Welker and that hes a better down field target, where Welker was more of a move the chains type of guy.
Either way I step back a bit from that WR1 label i put on him before, but i would still expect a solid WR2. Maybe somewhere around the 90 catches to go along with 1300 yards and 7-8 TDs. Totally agree with the injury issues though which is why personally i wont be taking him unless he slips a bit.