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Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

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Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby ingyson22 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:55 pm

12 team - 5 player keeper league - 0.5 ppr - other scoring standard - I won the league last year and will have 12th and 13th pick in a snake draft

For RB and WR my league plays - 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 FLEX - I am keeping DMartin, CSpiller, Megatron, Julio Jones

I am trying to decide between Randall Cobb and Lamar Miller as the 5th (assuming Miller wins lead dog in Miami)

My thoughts
- Argument for Miller - There likely won't be any RB available when I draft that is even close to his potential for this year. I anticipate there being decent WR talent available.
- Argument for Cobb - He will be the top target for one of the best QBs in the league for at least a handful of years. Wes Welker type numbers? Reluctant to give that up.

Your thoughts?
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby mzkp54 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 10:59 pm

I'd go with Cobb. Think he's the stronger option out of the two. Miller has a lot more questions about him
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby murphysxm » Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:18 pm

mzkp54 wrote:I'd go with Cobb. Think he's the stronger option out of the two. Miller has a lot more questions about him


agreed, Miller is a RB2/3, Cobb is probably a WR1
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby ingyson22 » Fri Mar 29, 2013 11:30 pm

Thanks guys. I agree and favor Cobb as well. Pretty tempting to have 3 capable RB though.
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby 11stever11 » Sat Mar 30, 2013 10:42 am

Welcome to the Cafe ;-D
I agree with the others and would keep Cobb. He is a low end WR1 with Jennings gone.
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby Indibuck » Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:17 pm

Welcome to the Cafe.

I agree with the others as well. Good luck.
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby wtr23 » Sat Mar 30, 2013 1:20 pm

Like the others I'd be keeping Cobb here.
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby kevinkallberg » Sun Mar 31, 2013 11:40 pm

I'd keep Cobb.

Think of it this way when you draft....if you keep Miller, no chance Cobb makes it to you in your draft. If you keep Cobb, there's a chance Miller may make it to you for your 12th pick overall. Rookies will always be drafted based on potential every year, even in this years weak draft, there will probably be at least 3 rookie WR's and 3 rookie Rb's taken ahead of you. Geno Smith may also go if a team needs a future QB. So give or take that 7 rookies will be selected ahead of you, maybe more. And then the top FA's availabe with the remaining 4 picks prior to your selection, I'd bet that Miller makes it to you....UNLESS you have a late draft and he gets named the starter and hyped up.
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby mycuccismells » Mon Apr 01, 2013 9:21 am

kevinkallberg wrote:I'd keep Cobb.

Think of it this way when you draft....if you keep Miller, no chance Cobb makes it to you in your draft. If you keep Cobb, there's a chance Miller may make it to you for your 12th pick overall. Rookies will always be drafted based on potential every year, even in this years weak draft, there will probably be at least 3 rookie WR's and 3 rookie Rb's taken ahead of you. Geno Smith may also go if a team needs a future QB. So give or take that 7 rookies will be selected ahead of you, maybe more. And then the top FA's availabe with the remaining 4 picks prior to your selection, I'd bet that Miller makes it to you....UNLESS you have a late draft and he gets named the starter and hyped up.


I strongly disagree that there will be 6-7+ rookies taken in the first round of a draft in this type of a format. Only 60 guys are being kept which means that there will be plenty of talent getting thrown back into the pool including some of those second year guys with same potential as the rookies but a year more of experience. I would be surprised if there are more than 1-2 rookies drafted in the first 4-5 rounds of a draft like this, the talent just isnt there.

That being said i think i would keep Cobb as well. The upside is tremendous with both of them, but the floor is a lot higher with Cobb. Miller is still an unknown and while he is being hyped up he can very easily fall flat, we saw what Cobb did last year and know with relative certainty that he will at worst be a WR2. Plus in a league where you have to start 3 WR every week it will be nice to have 3 young WR1s that you can lean on for the next 5 years if you want to, as well as fairly young RBs to go with them.

It hurts throwing back Miller as he could certainly blow up this year, just too much risk involved there. Is there any way to try and work some sort of a deal before the draft?? Maybe try packaging up one of those guys with your 12th pick to move up in the first round. Or even better would be to package up Miller and Cobb and land someone like a T Richardson or Alfred Morris and really give you 5 solid pieces moving forward
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Re: Keeper Decision: Cobb vs LMiller

Postby ingyson22 » Mon Apr 01, 2013 10:09 pm

I'd say very small chance Miller falls to 12th. Four rookies (Rich, Mart, Luck, RG3) did go in our 1st round last year but there won't be that many this year....maybe a couple RBs like lacy or bernard if they get drafted into a good situation. There is definitely good WR/QB talent getting thrown back from some stacked teams. There are 3 teams in my league that are pretty much locks to take an RB 1st round. My friend with the 8th pick I believe would want Miller if he is there. I could try and package my 12th and 13th to leapfrog him during the draft. I traded the 6th and 19th last year to move up to 3rd for Doug Martin (5th pick would have taken him). I seem a little higher on Miller than most people...I think he is going to do well this year...we will have to see what happens this summer. I've looked at trading both cobb and miller for someone better...its possible but seems unlikely.
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