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Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

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Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:24 pm

12 teams
h2h
this season is the 2nd year for keepers. keepers are kept based on round they were drafted: 4 keepers

4 keepers. I believe I have at least 2 of my keepers picked (R. Rice - round 1 and A. Peterson - round 2), and possibly my 3rd (M. Ryan - round 3).

Trying to make a choice for who my 4th should be. Between A. Hernandez - round 4, E. Decker - round 5, M. Williams - round 9 and O. Daniels - round 14

My thoughts:
- Keep R. Rice - round 1
- Keept A. Peterson - round 2
---------------
I am thinking i should keep M. Ryan - round 3
---------------
So for my final keeper I am between:
- A. Hernandez - round 4 however, I think theres a chance I could just try to draft him again in the 4th round, (plus he is inj prone).
- E. Decker - round 5 he is a solid WR to have. worth keeping in 5th round? (is inj prone, but less than A. Hernandez?)
- M. Williams - round 9 solid WR to own IMO, worth keeping him because of his Keeper round value?
- O. Daniels - round 14 he is a solid TE option. He is inj prone. but for a keeper value of round 14, worth it?

Who should I keep as my 4th keeper?
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby duffoholic » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:43 pm

Hernandez just isn't consistent enough for me to spend a 4th round pick on a TE plus he just underwent shoulder surgery so for me, he is out of the running.
Decker is interesting. What effect will Welker have on that team this year? I think the three WR's could all top 1000 yards this season and Decker stands to be the TD guy of the group again this year... though Welker could take a couple off his plate. He might be the best value for you here and keeping him leaves you free to take another RB or WR with the fourth to give you a solid base for your team with AP and Rice and Matty Ice.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Tue Apr 16, 2013 1:55 pm

I just read that A. Hernandez hurt his shoulder yeah.

E. Decker I think is a solid selection aswell. The potential value based on round for M. Williams, and O. Daniels apeals to me though.

I like your logic in having the base solidified, and target the best option in 4th round.

Thanks for imput. Need more ideas and views than my own, thanks.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby Indibuck » Tue Apr 16, 2013 2:48 pm

Do you have to keep 4? If you don't have to, I would throw back everyone but Rice and AP.

My 3rd choice would be Decker for a 5th... Probably about what where he might be drafted, so not great value, but better than your other options.

Ryan would be my 4th choice... Again, you keep him for about where he's likely to be drafted.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:07 pm

Indibuck wrote:Do you have to keep 4? If you don't have to, I would throw back everyone but Rice and AP.

My 3rd choice would be Decker for a 5th... Probably about what where he might be drafted, so not great value, but better than your other options.

Ryan would be my 4th choice... Again, you keep him for about where he's likely to be drafted.


I most agree with this sentiment, although i disagree with the Matt Ryan decision. I would rather keep either of the late round guys over Ryan because i think they offer a little value, Matt Ryan as a 3rd rounder is VERY high. In standard leagues he was only the 6th best QB and only 1PPG better than the 10th best QB; last year he was drafted around the 4th-5th round and he was very hyped. He had a great start to the year last year and then tailed off and i think his ADP will drop because of that, I wouldnt be surprised if you can draft him in the 4th or 5th again this year. Keeping him in the 3rd round is not only not getting value but it may be overpaying which is the last thing you want to do with an early round keeper.

If it were me i might go ahead and keep Daniels to be honest. He wont be great but hes a fairly solid TE and as a 14th round pick even if he gets hurt he isnt going to burn you, not like you are getting much with that late round pick anyways. Decker i could take or leave, i think that value is about right. He will most likely go somewhere between late 4th and early 6th depending on the draft so using a 5th round pick on him isnt bad if you like him
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 12:54 pm

the value of ryan is true. i am thinking of ryan and e decker to have a sure player at these positions going into the draft.

e decker and m williams i do like. but i think they like you said about decker will just end up being drafted again where they were last season.

im glad i posted on here. i am now thinking of leaving ryan in the draft. i am not sure who else will be available in the league at QB, but i think i could get a better "value" at QB than ryan in 3rd round like youre saying.

i like the value daniels, but i disagree with the "getting burned" if he does keep getting injured. i dont get burned based on losing a 14th round draft pick, i get burned losing a keeper when i could have kept someone else.

i hope m williams ADP value increases this season at least

i also have seattle defense round 8... didnt post since i figured its defense and not worth keeping, but based on the feed back im thinking it might be an ok move? they lost their defense cordinator though...
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby duffoholic » Thu Apr 18, 2013 2:52 pm

If there is one thing I have learned on this site it is that keeping a kicker or defence is always frowned upon if there are other options available and round 8 is waaay too early to be spending a pick on a defence.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Thu Apr 18, 2013 9:17 pm

duffoholic wrote:If there is one thing I have learned on this site it is that keeping a kicker or defence is always frowned upon if there are other options available and round 8 is waaay too early to be spending a pick on a defence.


I understand. Just from reading how people don't think I should keep my players besides my 2 RB I thought I'd just throw out that I have Seattle DEF. I wasn't sure if I'd get them in the 9th round so I went for the 8th. Besides my drafting last year worked out fine for me for the season the way I planned to draft
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Apr 19, 2013 7:49 am

sn267537 wrote:I like the value daniels, but i disagree with the "getting burned" if he does keep getting injured. i dont get burned based on losing a 14th round draft pick, i get burned losing a keeper when i could have kept someone else.


That would be true, if you had a long list of great keepers to choose from. You have 2 great keepers and then a list of guys who are decent players but you wont be getting a ton of value out of them. With Daniels you are getting decent value, and you arent giving up a good pick so the risk isnt there. With some of the other guys you would be getting them at their proper value and its better to just throw them back and see how the draft plays out instead of keeping a guy just because you can.

Just because you can keep 4 guys doesnt mean you really have to. For my money i would keep the 2 RBs and Daniels and throw the rest of the guys back and use those picks in the flow of the draft instead of being forced to build my team around who i kept. If you wanted to keep Decker or Williams because you really like them then go for it, but i could do without them
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Fri Apr 19, 2013 10:55 am

mycuccismells wrote:
sn267537 wrote:I like the value daniels, but i disagree with the "getting burned" if he does keep getting injured. i dont get burned based on losing a 14th round draft pick, i get burned losing a keeper when i could have kept someone else.


That would be true, if you had a long list of great keepers to choose from. You have 2 great keepers and then a list of guys who are decent players but you wont be getting a ton of value out of them. With Daniels you are getting decent value, and you arent giving up a good pick so the risk isnt there. With some of the other guys you would be getting them at their proper value and its better to just throw them back and see how the draft plays out instead of keeping a guy just because you can.

Just because you can keep 4 guys doesnt mean you really have to. For my money i would keep the 2 RBs and Daniels and throw the rest of the guys back and use those picks in the flow of the draft instead of being forced to build my team around who i kept. If you wanted to keep Decker or Williams because you really like them then go for it, but i could do without them


I understand. However, I am ok to keep Ryan in round 3 decker round 5 or Williams round 9 even if this is where they are to be drafted this year and I don't gain value based on ADP. I am fine with securing my QB or WR with these picks knowing I have guys that I had success with last season. I do see ur guys view of having these rounds open, but to me it depends who is available and have to wait and see.

I have josh freeman and lance moore rounds 10 and 11 also

It is nice to keep keepers that move up in adp but I am also fine to keep a e decker round 5 even if that's where he's drafted this year. Sures up my WR. But like u guys say it limits and restricts me to having to draft him round 5 when I could get someone different
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