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Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Apr 19, 2013 11:28 am

In the end its your decision, and im not sure if there is really a right or wrong one. Personally i think taking Ryan in the 3rd is the only decision thats a bad one, not only are you not gaining ADP there but i think you will see that you are overpaying for him. Personally i think he is probably the #6 QB after the main 3 plus Peyton and Cam; a third round pick for the 6th best QB seems like a bit of a stretch to me. Instead of keeping him with the 3rd you could get someone like Harvin with that pick and then get a Stafford/Kaepernick/Wilson/Luck type guy in a later round.

I think a big thing that you are overlooking if you keep the 2 RBs and Ryan and Decker is that you will only have 1 pick in the first 5 rounds. It gives you 2 stud RBs, a solid QB and a WR2; but when do you fill in those other holes?? Would you use your 4th round pick to give you a little depth at RB or try and salvage a WR1 to pair next to Decker? If you select a RB then you are stuck waiting until the 6th round to get your second WR which means you wont have that real go to WR on your team and will be relying more on a WR by committee. If you go WR in the 4th round that makes you solid up top but will likely leave you with slim pickings in terms of backup RB by the time the 6th round rolls around.

Thats why i think its best to throw the 2 guys back and just keep the RBs and Daniels, if you arent getting good value its more important to have that flexibility to build your roster around the draft (and based on who isnt kept) instead of trying to draft around who you kept just for the sake of keeping them. You would be going into the draft with 2 solid RBs and a good enough TE, and have all of your picks from rounds 3-13 still in tact.

Personally i would use rounds 3-5 to take the best possible combo of 2WR and a flex and then grab one of those second tier QBs after that, that would give you the most balanced roster. Every article you read about the upcoming draft is that QBs are so deep in the league now that reaching for QBs is dangerous, and reaching for a QB outside of those elite QBs is even more dangerous in my opinion. Matt Ryan isnt all that much better than that next tier QB, but that next tier QB will save you about 5 rounds and maybe only cost you a point or two a week.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Fri Apr 19, 2013 12:13 pm

You're responses have been I depth and through I appreciate it. I hope u don't think I am arguing or trying to disprove your points. I am just trying to cover angles, and discuss the options here.

Throughout this discussion I have been developing the thesis you have just stated. To select WR in round 3/4 and a QB round 5/6 or something like that. I do think it would be smarter to throw decker back because then my 5th round won't be locked and I can draft for my team based on the available players and not my needs

I think I will use a keeper pick on Daniels.

We have to keep 4. As a league we agreed on 4. Would u think keeping m Williams in the 9th round would be a total loss of my 9th round pick as my 4th keeper?

What round would u suggest drafting Wilson in? Shockingly he was a FA at the end of the year.

I am swayed and see a greater benefit not keeping Ryan and decker.

I have thought about how my first 5 rounds will be predetermined and limited. I thought it'd be worth it. But now I don't think it is. Especially since there are 4 keepers a team so there should be plenty of WR options to pick I would think
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Fri Apr 19, 2013 1:42 pm

sn267537 wrote:We have to keep 4. As a league we agreed on 4. Would u think keeping m Williams in the 9th round would be a total loss of my 9th round pick as my 4th keeper?
What round would u suggest drafting Wilson in? Shockingly he was a FA at the end of the year.
I am swayed and see a greater benefit not keeping Ryan and decker.
I have thought about how my first 5 rounds will be predetermined and limited. I thought it'd be worth it. But now I don't think it is. Especially since there are 4 keepers a team so there should be plenty of WR options to pick I would think


No worries man, a forum like this is all about having some discussion and there is nothing wrong with playing a little devil's advocate from time to time. Like you said i think its better to throw him back for the flexibility, especially if you think you can get him back at 5. If hes the best available then go for it, but you will be kicking yourself if someone like a Roddy White slips to the 5th and you can't take him.

Do you know what spot you have in the draft, or will you at least before you have to declare your keepers? No one has talked about that but that could be sort of a tie breaker in terms of keeping Decker, is he a late 5th round pick or an early 5th rounder? Also do you have the ability to trade before the draft?

Its strange that you HAVE to keep 4, usually leagues are set up where keepers are a benefit and not forced upon you. Mike Williams in the 9th isnt horrible, the value is about right and you give up a less valuable pick than you do keeping decker so you dont lose as much flexibility.

As far as Wilson I'm not quite sure where he will be valued, but i would guess somewhere in the 5th-7th round range. You dont have the ability to pick him up and keep him that way do you?
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Fri Apr 19, 2013 4:12 pm

I like the flexibility. Plus I could just draft them again, or like u say a better player could be left 5th round and I could end up getting decked in the 6th

I will have the 12th spot (last in round 1)

Well, I am commissioner for this league. I left it open for the league to decide how many keepers the majority wanted. I guess before the keepers are selected I can post asking or stating that we can keep a max of 4 if we want. But it's based on round drafted

I am unsure how to make the settings allow trading before season, and/or access free agents. Idk how to operate or set it up. This is the first league I have managed. It's through yahoo.

So idk how to organize and set up the league so I can access my roster from last season or free agents. Not sure how to keep the league going like that
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Mon Apr 22, 2013 7:25 am

sn267537 wrote:I like the flexibility. Plus I could just draft them again, or like u say a better player could be left 5th round and I could end up getting decked in the 6th

I will have the 12th spot (last in round 1)

Well, I am commissioner for this league. I left it open for the league to decide how many keepers the majority wanted. I guess before the keepers are selected I can post asking or stating that we can keep a max of 4 if we want. But it's based on round drafted

I am unsure how to make the settings allow trading before season, and/or access free agents. Idk how to operate or set it up. This is the first league I have managed. It's through yahoo.

So idk how to organize and set up the league so I can access my roster from last season or free agents. Not sure how to keep the league going like that


Every league is different but i definitely like the idea of giving people the option to keep guys or not, keepers should be a luxury not a punishment. As far as how to do the offseason stuff i cant help you there, at worst there should be a way to just do it though the message board and then manually alter rosters i would think.

Having the last pick in the draft sort of changes things slightly, and actually leads me to possibly lean towards keeping Decker. You have the last pick in the 5th round, and after factoring in the guys being kept that is probably more like a 7th round pick. In a straight redraft league you would never be able to get Decker as a 7th round pick so you probably wont be able to get him in this league with a late 5th round. You arent necessarily getting tremendous value there, but I dont think you will be able to do much better in the draft.

Hopefully this isnt too confusing after my other posts but i would probably keep the RBs and then Decker and Daniels. Grab a WR1 and a flex with your 3rd and 4th rounders and then worry about a QB after the 6th.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 8:31 am

Yeah. I guess since I'm the commish that I can make these calls. I can use ur reasoning as support, and I don't think by making 4 max keepers an option is too much of a change. It makes a difference, but it's a flexibility one.

Yeah, we'll, I always wonder how people are making trades and doing activity right now in their football and basketball league with the season over. After about a week I want to say in time after the season is over. My leagues usually close, then are given an option to reopen the league and invite the same managers again for when the next season begins.

Ok, so I think now I am confused with your 3rd and 4th paragraphs you said n your most recent post.

3rd paragraph: you are saying by keeping decker it is like drafting him in the 7th round? I don't understand the logic, or reasoning here. Especially when u add he probably won't last in a draft till late 5th round.

4th paragraph: I understand the keepers, but are u saying "worry about a QB after the 6th" so draft a QB in the 7th? Or draft a QB starting 6th round?

Sorry for my confusion.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:24 am

sn267537 wrote:Yeah, we'll, I always wonder how people are making trades and doing activity right now in their football and basketball league with the season over. After about a week I want to say in time after the season is over. My leagues usually close, then are given an option to reopen the league and invite the same managers again for when the next season begins.

Ok, so I think now I am confused with your 3rd and 4th paragraphs you said n your most recent post.

3rd paragraph: you are saying by keeping decker it is like drafting him in the 7th round? I don't understand the logic, or reasoning here. Especially when u add he probably won't last in a draft till late 5th round.

4th paragraph: I understand the keepers, but are u saying "worry about a QB after the 6th" so draft a QB in the 7th? Or draft a QB starting 6th round?


With the keeper league that im in the commissioner basically said to just make any deals outside of the confines of the website that the league is set up on and he will keep track of them and then manually alter rosters at the start of next year. Takes a little bit of work but considering there are usually only a few trades in the offseason its not really a big deal

Sorry for the confusion, ill try to clarify. What i was trying to get across is that in a redraft league without keepers Decker would probably be a 5th round pick, somewhere in the neighborhood of 50-55th overall. However in your league there will be some guys kept using picks from later rounds, that in a standard draft would have gone before Decker. You get guys like Morris and Spiller and Cobb that come off the board (but dont use up early picks) meaning that by the time the 5th round rolls around in your league there will be more talent off the board than in a standard draft. That doesnt necessarily mean that you are getting better value for Decker with a 5th round pick, just that the talent pool will be thinner than in a redraft so you probably wont be able to get Decker with a 5th round pick.

What i try to do in my keeper leagues is go through each team and try and determine who they will keep. By doing this you can have a good feel for what type of talent will be left in the pool, how many picks will be burned in the earlier rounds; which in turn will give you a good idea of who to keep. If you determine that a lot of people have guys that give them great value with the later picks then you may need to reach to keep Decker, because if you throw him back he probably wont be there in the 5th round. If most people are burning their early round picks on keepers then that might mold your strategy in a different way.

As far as the QB thing what i was trying to say is that I would probably try and fill up my 2WR/2RB/Flex and then move on to QB. You arent getting an elite QB and the pool is so deep after that elite tier that there is no reason to reach for one of those fringe QBs in the 3rd or 4th. Better to address the thinner positions first and then see whats left at QB after that. Like with everything else it all comes down to taking the draft as it comes to you though. If by some miracle Cam or Peyton are there in the 4th round dont just let them slip by. If the 6th round comes and there are still 5-6 QBs that you would feel comfortable with then wait a round or two if you think you can get one of them in the 7th or 8th.
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 11:51 am

Oh ok. Well I don't think I have to worry about off season trade talks as I am unlucky to be in a league where communication can he hard if it's not in season.

I see your points a little clearer now.

We have a roster set up of
QB
WR
WR
WR
RB
RB
TE

So in my 3/4 rounds I'll make sure to get a WR and pending with my other pick I'll take the best RB or WR. Or like u said if a cam or QB is left in the 4th possible take that.

I would really like to get Wilson in the 6th round. Seattle fan, so it'd be cool to have him and if he continues to do well.

As football approaches I'll look at the ADP sheets and compare what people are keeping to what rounds they will be filling with keepers and make my strategy from there.

As of now, where do u think QB like kaepernick or Wilson will be drafted? I just think that someone will take them before round 6. Of course if I put Ryan back in the pool and people keep QB then the chance is greater for me to get. Plus I will have the first pick of the 6th round so that helps if they make it past round 5.

Josh freeman for the past 3 years has been a QB I draft as my QB or back up. I think he's a decent later round add for QB
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby mycuccismells » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:07 pm

Yeah without a flex spot and with 3 WR being required i would say its imperative that you get a solid WR with either your 3rd or 4th round pick. I think people are going to reach for Kaepernick and he may go as early as the 3rd or 4th rounds in some drafts, which to me is a huge risk. I think Wilson will probably slip more in a lot of drafts and he may be had in the 6th or 7th rounds, but i wouldnt be surprised if he went earlier. Its a shame he was left at the end of the year in your league, you really should have picked him up at the end of the year and then you would have been able to keep him with a VERY late round pick.

I did that in my keeper league and I picked him up in week 15 so i had the option to keep him this year as a 14th round pick if i want to. I probably wont because i have too many other great keepers to throw back, but considering you dont have a ton of value keepers that was definitely a wasted opportunity. Judging by the fact that he was left there though i would say that his value probably isnt too high in your league and you may be able to pick him up with that 6th pick if his ADP isnt too high
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Re: Picking my last keeper (4 keepers)

Postby sn267537 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 12:29 pm

Well, he was dropped in a later week for Crabtree I believe.

People seem happy to add/drop but not trade in the leagues I play in. Unless they obviously with the trade they won't trade.

I wish I had this organization planning sooner. In my mind I was set on keeping Ryan so I didn't care to add him. I did think of it though, but figured ryan would be good. Last season I used a commity of WR for my WR3 and it worked out. As Ryan faded out end season and AP carried end season that helped a lot.

I was really hoping M. Williams and E. decker would move up in ADP value this season, but it doesn't look that way

And actually kaepernick was owned most of last year so I'm sure he's a keeper.

That's crazy R. Wilson might not be a keeper for u. Must have really nice team.
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