I'm in a keeper league, where you can keep up to 3 players from last year, but minus 2 rounds where you drafted them the year before. The league is TD heavy, awarding 6 pts per TD, and 1 pt per 50 yards rushing/receiving. Also docks 3 pts per interception thrown by QB. Last year I drafted AP in the 3rd, Ridley in the 6th, Ryan in the 7th, and Luck in the 14th. So for sure I'm keeping- 1. AP 2. 3. 4. Ridley This year I draft at the 9th spot, in a 10 team league, so I will draft next at 12th overall. I'm much higher on Ryan, than I am Luck, but what do you guys think. Ryan costs me a 5th rounder, where Luck costs me a 12th rounder. Do you think their would be a big enough difference in their play this year, where I shouldn't feel comforatable starting Luck? Or do I just keep Ryan instead.
Also, TRich, Morris, DMartin, and Spiller will be gone out of the first round, being kept by owners who will lose 3rd round picks and later for those guys. So when it gets to me at 12, since I already have AP and Ridley, should I go best RB available, which may be SJackson, or MJD, or go best receiver which could be Julio/Dez/Green? Or maybe think about drafting Graham, since Gronk may miss the start, and Graham should be #1 TE. What would y'all do in my situation?
murphysxm wrote:I would definitely keep Luck at that value over Ryan. Ryan is better, but not 9 rounds better.
As far as 1st pick, I'd probably lean towards a non RB since you have such a good start to your RB crops. Unless somebody drops that shouldn't
I agree about the QB situation here. Ryan had a great season but wasn't that far ahead of Luck, who was playing in his first NFL season and stands to improve over the next couple years meaning you could keep him for a few more seasons if he lives up to the hype at all. Even if he doesn't meet expectations you are only dropping a 12th round pick. Personally though, with the depth at QB these days, I'd be happier sending them both back this year and keeping another late round prospect or waiver wire pick up from last season.
As for the first pick, I'd be taking the best of what's available with the pick. Green or Graham would both be awesome picks in my opinion but I wouldn't be devastated to take a third RB if the top tier of WR's was already gone.
Thanks for the feedback, I will definately keep Luck instead of Ryan. You mentioned taking Graham at 12th overall, which is a move I like. But it's a touch if a reach for him at that spot. Would you feel better about doing that move, instead of picking up a Steven Jackson type back, where with him, AP, and Ridley, I have a really good shot at having 3 top 12 backs, and could dominate the position. Or would having Graham make up the difference. I just really don't know, it's my last dilemma.
I'd still take Graham there, unless a real talent falls to you.
Graham consistently puts up solid numbers comparable to a WR1-2. With those first picks you want to take someone you know will be a reliable source of fantasy point production. Graham is a favorite target in the redzone on a pass happy team (5000+ passing yards and 43 pass TD). The only thing that can stop Graham is an injury, you won't regret drafting him.
Jackson, on the other hand, has a lot of wear and tear as one of the most heavily. He started off last season slow, then finally turned it around in the second half of the season. He has left the Rams, a run happy team, and joined the Falcons, a pass happy team. Atlanta hasn't had a notable RB since the early 2000s, their passing attack puts a limit on the prodution of the RB. Even at the goal line they like to throw to Gonzalez (who will be playing this year).
If I had to choose Graham vs Sjax at 12th overall, I'd take Graham. It's not even close IMO. Good luck
Mobenhaus12 wrote:Thanks for the feedback, I will definately keep Luck instead of Ryan. You mentioned taking Graham at 12th overall, which is a move I like. But it's a touch if a reach for him at that spot. Would you feel better about doing that move, instead of picking up a Steven Jackson type back, where with him, AP, and Ridley, I have a really good shot at having 3 top 12 backs, and could dominate the position. Or would having Graham make up the difference. I just really don't know, it's my last dilemma.
Another one agreeing with the Luck over Ryan pick. The -3 for INT hurts Luck's value a bit so if i were you I would try and pair him with another QB in the 10-12th rounds in case he gets in a slump. The reason i like it though is because he will continue to improve so next year or 2 years from now he will be a steal in the 10th and 12th rounds.
As far as 12th overall i would definitely take Graham if he is there. You think its a reach but you are thinking of a redraft league, in a keeper league thats not really reaching. You named 6 1st round selections that are being kept meaning that by the time the 12th pick rolls around thats really more like the 18th overall pick in a redraft. To be completely honest you may not get Graham at that 12th spot, if that guy on the turn is keeping a RB or two i wouldnt be surprised if he snatches him up ahead of you.