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Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby blu44 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:16 pm

First off season in a keeper league. Each team in the league picks 4 keepers and the draft starts in round 5. So far I have 3 picked but am having trouble deciding on the last one. The three I have picked are:

Trent Richardson
Doug Martin
Demaryius Thomas

I feel these three are pretty much no brainers. Richardson and Martin are both primary backs and should get plenty of opportunities in their respective offenses. Plus they have both shown the ability to catch the ball and make plays out of the backfield. With each team selecting 4 keepers there is going to be a barren selection of RBs available. The addition of Welker may affect Thomas's numbers a bit but I think he'll still put up the best numbers on the team and very respectable WR1 numbers, plus Manning knows how to spread the ball around. Plus I think it's possible he won't affect Thomas's numbers at all. Manning wants the Broncos to play faster and throw more next year.

For my last pick I was at one point pretty set on keeping a QB. It was/is between:

Drew Brees: The top scoring Fantasy QB last year and should have another great season. With Sean Peyton returning I can only imagine the team getting better but I also expect them to run a little more and play a little better defense which could hurt his numbers in the long run. But he also has the forth toughest strength of schedule based on points allowed to QB's last year.

Peyton Manning: He knows how to spread the ball around and as I said he wants to throw more and run a faster offense this year. Plus he has a new slot receiver to work with. So while I can imagine Brees numbers trending down I expect Manning's to go the opposite way. But, Brees has a bit more longevity as Peyton probably only plays 2-3 more years

The more I think about it I find myself not really sure if I want to keep a QB. Just looking at the league and what I expect people to most likely keep there will be a decent selection of QBs come draft time. If I didn't keep a QB there would be Manning, Brees, Russel Wilson (still a FA), Romo/Luck, and Stafford/Caepernick. The problem is that I pick 8th and the teams I expect to take QBs all pick before me. It is a snake draft though so I'll get the 8th and 13th picks. The two teams that pick after me will have Luck/Romo and Brady as their QB. So I expect I could still use my fifth rounder on the best WR/RB flex player available and then my sixth on Manning/Brees/Wilson/Caepernick/Stafford whoever remains. On the other hand, I it would be nice to sit comfortably with a top 5 QB and have the option of taking the 2 best WR/RBs available at the time. I expect WRs and RBs to fly off the board. Before my first round pick there are only 2 teams I expect to take QBs, A third team possibly could but only if he chose not to keep Matt Ryan which would add even another QB option. I could see a scenario where the team behind me selects a QB but only if he doesn't keep Romo or Luck. More likely though I expect each to take the best WR/RB available. Not taking a QB of course is dependent on who my final keeper would be. The rest of my roster:

Aaron Hernandez: Very tempting, especially with Gronk continuing to battle his forearm injury. However, has trouble staying healthy himself and did just have shoulder surgery. I fully expect him to still be there with my fifth and sixth rounders and quite possibly my seventh. However, most teams will likely be in need of a TE as I just don't expect anyone to keep one apart from Gronk, Graham and Gonzalez.

Pierre Garcon: I expect him to put up some good numbers next year and be a respectable WR2. He played well enough after returning from injury. With both him and Griffin healthy I think he will be the clear number one receiver on the team. But, I expect he would still be there with my fifth round pick and possibly my sixth round pick as well.

Dwayne Bowe: Started off last season great then faded due to a complete lack of offense in KC. Should have a bounce back year with Andy Reid and Alex Smith in town. Once again though I expect that he will be available with my sixth or seventh rounder.

Reggie Wayne: A nice contibutor from the late rounds of my draft last year. I expect he will be productive again but I don't know if he is worth using a keeper on. He was kind of inconsistent late last year.

Ryan Matthews: No way in hell I waste a keeper on him.

DeAngelo Williams: Performed excellent down the stretch when he finally got an opportunity, a good free agent pickup. However, I don't expect Carolina to start him and give him the majority of the touches like I think he should get. He will be available very late in the draft.

Lance Moore, Denarius Moore, Gostkowski and the Bengals defense: no upside to keeping them. Will all be available in the late rounds.

While QB is definitely the position that would be the deepest in the draft I don't really think any of the alternative options are really worth losing Brees or Manning. I expect they would be the first two off the board so I would probably target Russel Wilson, Caepernick or Matthew Stafford and would definitely feel shoehorned into taking one of them in the 6th. I just don't feel like any of the other players on my roster are really worth replacing Brees/Manning with Wilson/Cap/Stafford. Especially since I expect that they would all be available with my 5th and 6th round picks. By keeping Brees/Manning it would open my draft to take the two best WR/RBs available with my first two picks and then target Hernandez in the 7th and then the best available WR/RB flex or the best backup QB available in the 8th. As of right now that is what I am panning on and am leaning towards Brees over Manning.

Any opinions?
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby Indibuck » Sat Apr 20, 2013 1:46 pm

Manning or Brees... flip a coin. :-)

I would pick Brees, especially since you have Thomas... I'm not a big fan of the QB/WR combo, as scoring tends to be less consistent week to week.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby wtr23 » Sat Apr 20, 2013 7:32 pm

Not a bad position to be in here :-) I'd say Brees as well. I really doubt the saints drastically change their gameplan, but really you can't go wrong with either player. Take a top 5 QB as your last keeper, then draft the hell out of the WR/RB in the next few rounds. I wouldn't bother with TEs... Im assuming Gronk/Graham/Witten/Gonzalez are being kept so no need to reach at this point. I think Hernandez will be an interesting player this year, but he has yet to play a full season and recently had shoulder surgery so I'd pass on him at this point.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby duffoholic » Sun Apr 21, 2013 11:10 am

I agree... Brees is the guy you are least likely to be able to get again of all the names mentioned. Keep him and fill out your roster with the next two picks. Manning is a fine pick too, I don't see either of them as a waste but give a slight edge to Brees just due to longevity and you already having Thomas.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby blu44 » Sun Apr 21, 2013 3:58 pm

Thanks for all the replies. Looks like my initial inclination was right. Think I will be keeping Brees over Manning. I've been looking at the rosters and trying to put together a list of players I think are most likely to be available on draft day.

WR:
Vincent Jackson
Colston
Andre Johnson
Denario Alexander
Eric Decker
Wes Welker
Pierre Garcon
Dwayne Bowe
Jordy Nelson
Miles Austin
Cobb
Desean Jackson
Amendola
James Jones
Reggie Wayne

RB:
CJ Spiller
Reggie Bush
Darren McFadden
Darren Sproles
Steven Jackson

Waiting to see how the draft turns out next week to work the rookies in there as well. Some of the bigger names are dependent on other big names. For example if CJ Spiller isn't in the draft I expect Alfred Morris/Julio Jones/Roddy White. If Vincent Jackson is kept I expect Gronk/LeSean McCoy to be available. I would very much love to land a Vincent Jackson or CJ Spiller caliber player in the fifth but I don't think they will fall that far. What are your thoughts of targeting Reggie Bush in the 5th? I think he was greatly underutilized last year and could have a huge year in Detroit. Then in the 6th and 7th go after WRs Dwayne Bowe/Pierre Garcon/a Packers WR (Nelson/Cobb/Jones)/Denario Alexander/DeSean Jackson. Basically ignoring the rookies for now who do you think on that list I should be going after.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby duffoholic » Sun Apr 21, 2013 4:18 pm

I think you could do a lot worse than any of those backs.
I am in Steven Jackson's corner as a former owner of the RB, I have always thought he was a victim of his team. He has never had the privilege of playing behind a solid offensive line while also having a solid passing game to take the 8th (and 9th and 10th...) defenders out of the box. I know he's nearing the end of his career but I think the guy has a better than average year for him and should be flirting with the top 10-15 for RB's. Combining him with your other two potentially top 10 guys and you should be laughing.

Beyond my personal love affair, I really doubt Spiller hits the market... I could see the owner throwing back White and splitting up that WR duo and even if he does, you won't be seeing him at the 8th pick, that's for sure.

For the rest of them, after Sjax, I'd take:
DMC. I like his upside despite myself. The injury concern is big but... new offensive scheme + a little luck with injuries = stud RB in the 5th round.
Sproles. The guy puts up yards and is a consistent piece of a powerful offence. Even more value in a PPR.
Bush is my last choice here. The guy just keeps getting chances to be a RB1 and keeps letting you down. He went to a Miami team that had one of the best offensive lines in the league and was only just average aside from the occasional breakout performance. I sense more of the same here especially with Detroit's history of ground game ineptitude over the past couple seasons. I'm not buying the hype.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby mycuccismells » Mon Apr 22, 2013 4:02 pm

Spiller wont be thrown back, if he is then someone is doing something seriously wrong!!! You have Martin and Richardson who are both top 10 picks this year so getting another RB wont be your primary concern. I would definitely agree that keeping Brees is the way to go here, he will probably be the top QB off the board in most drafts and will likely be a 2nd round pick at worst so you are getting great value there.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby blu44 » Mon Apr 22, 2013 5:52 pm

I would agree that Spiller SHOULDN'T be thrown back but throughout the entire season he was actively trying to shop him. Granted he was trying to get peoples #1 RB and WR out of it. Then on the trade block he listed Brady, Jones, White and Alfred Morris as listed as untouchable. Whether or not this means he plans on keeping those four remains to be seen.
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby mycuccismells » Tue Apr 23, 2013 8:22 am

blu44 wrote:I would agree that Spiller SHOULDN'T be thrown back but throughout the entire season he was actively trying to shop him. Granted he was trying to get peoples #1 RB and WR out of it. Then on the trade block he listed Brady, Jones, White and Alfred Morris as listed as untouchable. Whether or not this means he plans on keeping those four remains to be seen.


Interesting but it could just be that he thought Spiller was overvalued, or that he feared his role since he was never listed as the lead back last year. I had him last year in a keeper and a non-keeper league; in the keeper league i held him because he was great value to keep this year as a 7th round pick but in my redraft league i shopped him every week. His numbers looked great on paper but he got so few touches that i was worried every week if he didnt break a long run or get a TD that he would be a dud, I would have preferred a less explosive back that got a consistent amount of touches. He does have 4 really good keepers there that would be hard to throw back but you have to throw back Roddy
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Re: Choosing my keepers (4 per team)

Postby Sex Panther » Thu Apr 25, 2013 7:40 am

Agree w/ the 3 you are keeping, IMO a lot hinges on where you are drafting and what's thrown back...

I see you are drafting 8th/13th...

IMO your 2 QB & Hernandez are the only guys I would consider (Hernandez should be the 3rd TE off the board behind Gronk/Graham).

Drafting 8th/13th... keep a guy who you don't think will be there when it gets back to you - personally I would go Brees.

It's a given Manning will be taken by the time your're up at 8, so in a sense, you are really drafting 7th...

Take a look at other rosters, chances are you can get a really good idea who is going to be off the board by the time you pick 1st, like you said, you expect most teams ahead of you to take a QB,

I would hope for Cobb (3rd year WR, plays w/ the best QB in the game, very well could be an absolute stud for the next 5-7 years) w/ your 1st pick, and hope Hernandez (basically a WR who is labeled as a TE, no more Welker, legit shot to post 100/1000/10line w/ regularity if he can ever stay healthy) makes it back to you in the 2nd...

QB Brees
WR Thomas
WR Cobb
RB Richardson
RB Martin
TE Hernandez

Is a pretty wicked starting 6
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