is AD the clear cut 1st pick? - Fantasy Football Cafe 2014 Fantasy Football Cafe


Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Moderator: Football Moderators

is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby sabomnim » Tue May 28, 2013 6:09 pm

even in a 6pt TD passing and ppr league?
WHIR 100%
sabomnim
Defensive Assistant
Defensive Assistant


Posts: 644
(Past Year: 75)
Joined: 27 Aug 2009
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby Indibuck » Tue May 28, 2013 9:09 pm

Yes... After last season, how do you not select him first?
Indibuck
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 4455
(Past Year: 173)
Joined: 8 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Fort Rain

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby Jason497 » Tue May 28, 2013 9:11 pm

Yes. Unless you have some voodoo spidey sense that he gets injured...it's really not even debatable. Especially now that Arian Foster got carted off with a calf injury today.
Jason497
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

User avatar
CafeholicFantasy Expert
Posts: 655
(Past Year: 41)
Joined: 3 Aug 2003
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby Ronak » Wed May 29, 2013 10:46 am

Actually I don't know if AP is the clear cut #1. Below are AP's 2012 #'s in a 6pt/pass TD and PPR league and Arian Foster's, you make the choice.

AP: 348 Att for 2097 Rush yds; 12 Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 1 TD; 2 FL = 344 Fantasy PTS

Foster: 351 for 1424 Rush yds; 15Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 2 TDs; 2FL = 301 Fantasy PTS

Which of these lines do you think is repeatable? AP has to rush for at least 1800 yds to be better than Foster. I feel Foster is WAY more repeatable than AP is but you absolutely cannot go wrong with either choice. You have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls? Does AP feel the effects of losing Percy Harvin?
Ronak
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 234
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 22 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby Indibuck » Wed May 29, 2013 9:41 pm

Ronak wrote:Actually I don't know if AP is the clear cut #1. Below are AP's 2012 #'s in a 6pt/pass TD and PPR league and Arian Foster's, you make the choice.

AP: 348 Att for 2097 Rush yds; 12 Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 1 TD; 2 FL = 344 Fantasy PTS

Foster: 351 for 1424 Rush yds; 15Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 2 TDs; 2FL = 301 Fantasy PTS

Which of these lines do you think is repeatable? AP has to rush for at least 1800 yds to be better than Foster. I feel Foster is WAY more repeatable than AP is but you absolutely cannot go wrong with either choice. You have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls? Does AP feel the effects of losing Percy Harvin?

Good observation... And I think that Foster is/should be the consensus #2 pick in most leagues.

But a few points of concern with Foster that I think should be addressed:

1. The one item that varies the most year-to-year in fantasy is TDs. Foster scored 17 TDs last year after scoring 12 the year before. Yes, AP had an outlier year with all those yards, but I submit that it's more likely for AP to repeat his success from last year than Foster.

2. Foster's YPC has declined in each of the past two years, from 5.0 in his breakout 2010 season to 4.4 in 2011 to 4.0 last year. It's an alarming trend. For comparisons sake, AP has averaged 5.0 YPC for his entire career... Including a whopping 6.0 on those 348 carries.

I'm not going to jeer anyone that wants to take Foster first. Bit if I have the 1.01, I'm taking the player that has the absolute best chance of being a top-5 overall producer. And with AP's history, he's the safest bet on the board. AP has a slightly higher ceiling and a much higher floor than anyone else, including Foster.
Indibuck
Moderator
Moderator

User avatar
ModeratorCafeholicFantasy ExpertCafe WriterCafe RankerMock(ing) DrafterEagle EyeCafe MusketeerPick 3 ChampionLucky Ladders ChampionMatchup Meltdown SurvivorCafe Blackjack Weekly Winner
Posts: 4455
(Past Year: 173)
Joined: 8 Aug 2006
Home Cafe: Football
Location: Fort Rain

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby mycuccismells » Fri May 31, 2013 9:15 am

Ronak wrote:Actually I don't know if AP is the clear cut #1. Below are AP's 2012 #'s in a 6pt/pass TD and PPR league and Arian Foster's, you make the choice.

AP: 348 Att for 2097 Rush yds; 12 Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 1 TD; 2 FL = 344 Fantasy PTS

Foster: 351 for 1424 Rush yds; 15Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 2 TDs; 2FL = 301 Fantasy PTS

Which of these lines do you think is repeatable? AP has to rush for at least 1800 yds to be better than Foster. I feel Foster is WAY more repeatable than AP is but you absolutely cannot go wrong with either choice. You have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls? Does AP feel the effects of losing Percy Harvin?


I see what you tried to do there, but Im not sure you really proved any point.

1. You claim that AP has to rush for 1800 yards to be better than Foster, where did you get that number from? AP beat foster by 43 points last year which is 430 yards in a standard league, meaning that if AP would have rushed for around 1670 yards he would have beat out Foster

2. You say you have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls only to show that they caught the exact same number of balls last year for the exact same number of yards

3. Anyone will tell you that yards are much more repeatable than TDS, TDs are the flukiest thing in football. Not saying that some guys arent great at getting to the end zone but thats not something i want to necessarily rely on, I rather have the guy that constantly gets me the yards. AP averaged 6YPC last year compared to Foster's 4YPC. Even if AP dropped a full yard per carry he would have beat out Foster by 8 pts

4. Its possible he feels the effects of losing Harvin, but remember Harvin only played in 8 games last year. In the 8 games he did play AP had 914 total yards and 4 TDs, in the 8 games that Harvin was out AP had 1400 yards and 9 TDs. Load up the box all the want, when AP is rolling no one can stop him and its as simple as that. Also, dont forget that the Vikings got someone by the name of Greg Jennings this year. Not nearly as good as Harvin but still someone to take a little bit of the attention off of AP

In the end its all opinion based, but in my opinion I would take AP with the #1 every single time. Foster keeps declining and relies too heavily on TDs for my liking, even though its incredible how consistent he is with them. To me I see Foster as a bigger injury risk, AND he has the much better backup in Tate. Tate was injured a good portion of last year so he didnt have the opportunity to vulture some of Foster's carries, but if he is healthy that could take away from Foster a bit. Probably not a ton but i can see him losing a few of those TDs he had on AP as well as maybe an extra 100-200 yards which probably offsets AP coming back down to earth a bit this year
mycuccismells
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

CafeholicResponse Team
Posts: 870
(Past Year: 361)
Joined: 18 Sep 2012
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby Ronak » Fri May 31, 2013 9:52 am

I agree with all the statements made about AP. If i had the 1.01 this season I'm pretty sure I'm taking All Day. I just wanted to show that it's never as clear cut as we all like to make it sometimes. Granted my stats were very superficial and taken off the top of my head but I do think I proved that looking a little deeper and not getting caught up in the previous year's stats can show us some surprising information.

One of the ideas I heard floating around is that the Texans are going to play with the idea of having Foster and Tate on the field at the same time. I suppose this is to keep packages they ran with James Casey last year and I don't think it will work, though interesting none the less.

Finally, I think AP is that once in a generation runner who just may be able to duplicate a 2000 yard season but history is definitely not on his side.
Ronak
Special Teams Staff
Special Teams Staff


Posts: 234
(Past Year: 9)
Joined: 22 Aug 2007
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby mycuccismells » Fri May 31, 2013 10:02 am

Ronak wrote:I agree with all the statements made about AP. If i had the 1.01 this season I'm pretty sure I'm taking All Day. I just wanted to show that it's never as clear cut as we all like to make it sometimes. Granted my stats were very superficial and taken off the top of my head but I do think I proved that looking a little deeper and not getting caught up in the previous year's stats can show us some surprising information.

Finally, I think AP is that once in a generation runner who just may be able to duplicate a 2000 yard season but history is definitely not on his side.


Completely agree that its never as clear cut as we think, Foster was the "clear cut" #1 last year and we all know how that worked out. Not that he was a bust by any means but didnt turn out as the #1 player so you never really know until the season is over. My point was that your stats almost worked against your point, to me they proved that AP stood out above Foster and taken in line with the fact that he got better as the season progressed it would make me feel good about having him.

Its true that history isnt on the side of guys coming off of big years like that, but history isnt on the side of guys less than a year removed from knee surgery either. Some guys just break the mold and i think AP is one of those guys. No one can say that he will repeat that performance, but hes one of those guys where you cant doubt him jsut because other guys couldnt do it.
mycuccismells
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

CafeholicResponse Team
Posts: 870
(Past Year: 361)
Joined: 18 Sep 2012
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby duffoholic » Fri May 31, 2013 11:57 am

Yup, AP is a beast in the purest sense. I love Foster and am going to be keeping him in my main league this year despite the wear and tear and the 30$ price tag but if I could trade him for AP at the same, or even a higher, price, I would do it in a heartbeat!

My best guess at the RB situation this year is that AP falls back a little this season, but not much and he might make up for the loss in yards with a few more TD's. On the other hand, I think Foster actually has a "bounce back" year and gets that YPC up a little bit. I'm hoping his carries drops by 20-30 from last year and that a healthy Tate can provide him the support he needs to be able to run a little harder every down. Regardless of that, dude has a nose for the goal line and should still hold the TD title for RB's at the end of the season.
duffoholic
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

CafeholicResponse Team
Posts: 827
(Past Year: 425)
Joined: 12 Sep 2012
Home Cafe: Football

Re: is AD the clear cut 1st pick?

Postby mycuccismells » Fri May 31, 2013 12:19 pm

duffoholic wrote:Yup, AP is a beast in the purest sense. I love Foster and am going to be keeping him in my main league this year despite the wear and tear and the 30$ price tag but if I could trade him for AP at the same, or even a higher, price, I would do it in a heartbeat!

My best guess at the RB situation this year is that AP falls back a little this season, but not much and he might make up for the loss in yards with a few more TD's. On the other hand, I think Foster actually has a "bounce back" year and gets that YPC up a little bit. I'm hoping his carries drops by 20-30 from last year and that a healthy Tate can provide him the support he needs to be able to run a little harder every down. Regardless of that, dude has a nose for the goal line and should still hold the TD title for RB's at the end of the season.


No argument here, the guy knows how to score TDS at a remarkable rate. I would agree i expect his YPC to bump up slightly but i dont think they go up by that much. If he increases his YPC from 4.1 to 4.5 but loses 30 carries this year that change will offset. I dont put too much stock into his injury right now being a game changer but it does add another level of concern
mycuccismells
Offensive Coordinator
Offensive Coordinator

CafeholicResponse Team
Posts: 870
(Past Year: 361)
Joined: 18 Sep 2012
Home Cafe: Football

Next

Return to Draft, Trade, & Waiver Questions

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 9 guests

Forums Articles & Tips Start & Sit Sleepers Rankings Leagues


Get Ready...
The 2014 NFL season kicks off in 14:03 hours
(and 42 days)
2014 NFL Schedule


  • Fantasy Football
  • Article Submissions
  • Privacy Statement
  • Site Survey 
  • Contact