Ronak wrote:Actually I don't know if AP is the clear cut #1. Below are AP's 2012 #'s in a 6pt/pass TD and PPR league and Arian Foster's, you make the choice.
AP: 348 Att for 2097 Rush yds; 12 Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 1 TD; 2 FL = 344 Fantasy PTS
Foster: 351 for 1424 Rush yds; 15Tds - 40 receptions for 217 YDS; 2 TDs; 2FL = 301 Fantasy PTS
Which of these lines do you think is repeatable? AP has to rush for at least 1800 yds to be better than Foster. I feel Foster is WAY more repeatable than AP is but you absolutely cannot go wrong with either choice. You have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls? Does AP feel the effects of losing Percy Harvin?
I see what you tried to do there, but Im not sure you really proved any point.
1. You claim that AP has to rush for 1800 yards to be better than Foster, where did you get that number from? AP beat foster by 43 points last year which is 430 yards in a standard league, meaning that if AP would have rushed for around 1670 yards he would have beat out Foster
2. You say you have to weigh things like does Foster catch more balls only to show that they caught the exact same number of balls last year for the exact same number of yards
3. Anyone will tell you that yards are much more repeatable than TDS, TDs are the flukiest thing in football. Not saying that some guys arent great at getting to the end zone but thats not something i want to necessarily rely on, I rather have the guy that constantly gets me the yards. AP averaged 6YPC last year compared to Foster's 4YPC. Even if AP dropped a full yard per carry he would have beat out Foster by 8 pts
4. Its possible he feels the effects of losing Harvin, but remember Harvin only played in 8 games last year. In the 8 games he did play AP had 914 total yards and 4 TDs, in the 8 games that Harvin was out AP had 1400 yards and 9 TDs. Load up the box all the want, when AP is rolling no one can stop him and its as simple as that. Also, dont forget that the Vikings got someone by the name of Greg Jennings this year. Not nearly as good as Harvin but still someone to take a little bit of the attention off of AP
In the end its all opinion based, but in my opinion I would take AP with the #1 every single time. Foster keeps declining and relies too heavily on TDs for my liking, even though its incredible how consistent he is with them. To me I see Foster as a bigger injury risk, AND he has the much better backup in Tate. Tate was injured a good portion of last year so he didnt have the opportunity to vulture some of Foster's carries, but if he is healthy that could take away from Foster a bit. Probably not a ton but i can see him losing a few of those TDs he had on AP as well as maybe an extra 100-200 yards which probably offsets AP coming back down to earth a bit this year